Ten Truths about the 2008 Election

#1 – Gordon Tullock's Thesis (see earlier post) is wrong. – In a number of races across the country the contribution of individual voters to the outcome was pronounced. In three Senate races, the victor will be declared by fewer than 2000 votes. In one congressional district the current outcome is less than 400 votes.
#2 – The evil influence of money in politics is a bit over-rated – In 2006 the GOP had a pretty large money advantage. In this election the democrats did. It does not seem to have changed the results materially. At one point democratic Senate Campaign chair Schumer boasted that they would get to 60 votes in the Senate and the people seem to have rejected his projection.
#3 – San Francisco voters are wacky, but not crazy. – they rejected measures to legalize prostitution and to name a sewage treatment plant after President Bush. While the City (as its residents call it) did not match the rest of the state, they also made some very sane choices.
#4 – President Elect Obama has a huge task, but started out well. I was impressed (as noted in a post last night) by both candidates’ statements. I hope this marks an attempt at new levels of civility in the public realm. We need it.
#5 – Californians love debt. – While we rejected the measures sponsored by outside forces, we adopted a very costly high speed rail bond (1A), more debt for hospitals (3) and for veterans housing.(12) Only the last one is self financing. The rail bond will cost the general fund more than $600 million a year in debt service. I thought (think) that was (is) foolish.
#6 – Gavin Newsome should learn some self-restraint. If Prop 8 eventually passes (and it is currently ahead by about 500,000 votes) opponents can thank SF Mayor Gavin Newsome whose image permeated the airwaves. He said, “whether they like it or not” gay marriage is a fact. Evidently, Mayor Newsome, they did not like it. But then, I don't like him and this just about finishes him as a legitimate statewide candidate. Politics is a business that requires some forward thinking; Newsome's playing to his local audience cost him and the cause he supported.
#7 – While Obama won a big victory, voter interest was not just in him. Turnout across the country was high. But in several instances, including in some very key Senate races the voters seem to have split their tickets. If the numbers hold up for Ted Stevens, I am not sure what to make of it.
#8 – There are only red dots in the Northeast. The Governor elect of Vermont becomes, along with the Maine Senators, one of a few remaining republicans in the Northeast. That is an imbalance that will not serve the region well. Even in California there is some ideological diversity.
#9 – The GOP should begin a process of thinking about what happened. The moves in the Senate and the House fell below the claims of the democrats but the GOP clearly lost ground. They lost some very reliable states in the presidential race and they lost some races (Liddy Dole comes to mind) where they were projected to win big early in the year. We've lived through two presidencies who believed in Triangulation. Politics should be an accretive not a divisive process. The GOP, especially some in the Bush White House, did not understand that fact; they need to.
#10 – While the victory for the democrats was impressive, they might benefit from looking to 1992. . Democrats when they run all three sides of elective office (the presidency, senate and house) have a tendency to over-reach. In this generation of leaders in Congress, they have a lot of very liberal leaders and few if any conservatives. If they follow them too closely, they will get blasted in 2010.