Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Something more on numbers on the iPad

Apple announced this morning that they will delay the introduction of the iPad internationally because of strong demand in the US.  Chikita Labs has a way of estimating volume (which as of 7AM this morning was above 821,000).   It is interesting to see the numbers click up.  At this point they estimate that Californians have purchased almost 20% of the devices.  New York, Texas and Florida add another 18%.  That means 40% of the volume is in four states.

The Comments pages on Chikita are pretty grumpy.  They all criticize the methodology which is based on usage of unique internet addresses.  In essence, Chikita is polling the net and finding how many iPads register as net users.  Indeed, that may be flawed, for a couple of reasons.  First, as a mobile device, I am likely to use it in more than one place, even in a day.   But second, I suspect some people are not using the device to surf much.   One person in my office, whose son bought her a 16 GIG model, has not used it much as a surfing device.  So in one case the numbers may be artificially large and in the other a bit small.

There are two conclusions.  First, the Apple related announcements - shortages in stores and delay of the international launch - suggest this has been a very strong product launch.  Second, like the iPhone there are a group who simply want to deny what seems to be happening (and I will admit, there are a group of us who keep looking for the positives).  In the iPhone, the naysayers have been consistently proven wrong.   The initial signs - both from estimators like Chikita and from the news stories both reviewing the device and from Apple with their comments about demand - suggest that the naysayers will again be wrong.

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