The Mexico Election 4

Some more developments on the election happened this afternoon. First, AMLO raised the specter of vote miscounts. He asserted that there were 3 million miscounted votes - it is unclear how he came to that number but in this kind of contest that may not be necessary. As I suggested in an earlier post, the Algores seem to be advising the former mayor. Mark in Mexico suggests that is a Kerry tactic - it may simply be the tactic of losers. Second, Calderon again reasserted his victory - which remains in the 400,000 range with less than 2% of the votes to be counted.

Some leftist analysts have suggested that this looks like the 1988 election where Cardenas (the PRD candidate of the time) lost to Salinas in a very questionable election. Some Mexicans refer to that election as the one with the disappearing computers - Cardenas was well ahead of Salinas but then the computers turned off - when they restarted Salinas was in the lead. Salinas was then succeeded by Ernesto Zedillo. Some believe that while Salinas followed the mold of PRI presidents since the 1920s, his successor set up the conditions for the reforms that ultimately made possible the Fox victory. That includes the establishment of the IFE which is the body which will validate this election. But with the threats, implied and express, that AMLO has raised, the IFE may not be successful in making the system work. The new president has to be certified by September 6. Some of AMLOs supporters could be planning to disrupt the system until he wins by default.

As one who has watched Mexico for more than a decade, I am hopeful that if the IFE does make the certification that seems to be there, that the radical's tactics will not be successful. The divisions, that were noted in an earlier post, are a bit more complex than I suggested. Mexico has a growing middle class which seems to have been divided between the people who want a nanny state and those who do not. Among my friends and acquaintances this election generated a lot of interest but not the same kind that 2000 did. In 2000 the people I spoke with were excited to participate in a change. But in this year, the traditional skepticism about all politics - which I first encountered when I started to speak to friends in Mexico - seemed to reassert itself. In 1997 I was living in Oaxaca and driving back from Mitla in a cab - we passed the road that leads to Benito Juarez's home. I asked about it and the taxista commented that he did not care much for politics. He then said we have a saying in Mexico - how can you tell when a politician is lying? Look to see whether his lips are moving. - I started to laugh and he said - it is really not that funny - to which I replied - I know but we say the same thing in the US. A lot of Mexicans I have come to know, rich and poor, have little faith in the political system. In this year, that may actually be a plus. While AMLO may try to mobilize the mobs in the same way he did when the PAN was trying to do the Mexican equivalent of impeachment - the one consistent comment I have heard in the last year has been a realization that Mexico's democracy is an increasingly important thing to protect. If the IFE continues to act with integrity, there is a good chance that the average citizen will not stand for shenanigans.

Earlier in the year I was in Aguascalientes at a friend's birthday party and spoke with most of the people there. While there was no one there in support of AMLO - these were middle class people in a PAN state - the support for Calderon was tepid. In that trip, I met with a key PRD official in Zacatecas who told me in confidence that he would not support AMLO. At the same time some members of the business community in Mexico have supported AMLO in the hope that they would get a piece of the massive projects that he has suggested. At the same time, I know some not very rich people who are deeply religious who could not have possibly supported AMLO. What that says is that Mexico has matured into a more complex democracy than most observers give it credit for.

The next steps for certifying the election are a bit complicated. There are further possible steps if either candidate disputes the results certified by the IFE. Mark in Mexico has a clear presentation of the next steps. In 2000 the movement was all in the excitement was in the thing to move the PRI out. But in this election that feeling is not there. I think there is a good chance that if AMLO tries to demagogue this, there is a good chance that a good part of the electorate will not accept such tactics.