The Mexican Election - Part III

The election seems to have gone to a cliff hanger. The result between the two major candidates (Lopez Obrador of the PRD and Calderon of the PAN) seems to be within one or two points. Last night both candidates declared victory but with almost 60% of the vote Calderon seems to be ahead. I have a couple of very preliminary conclusions about this. First. the Federal Elections Commission (IFE) seems to have done what it was created to do - create a process that is fair. The IFE has a voter verification process which requires voters to show an ID card to get a ballot. So unlike the US, which is pretty sloppy, the votes seem to be real. Luis Ulgalde, the Director of the Institute, deserves our prayers and respect. My impression of his work on this election is that he will not be swayed by demogogues. His job is to make this election result real. I do not know enough about Ulgalde - but what I do know I admire.

Second, while both candidates have declared victory - AMLO seems prepared to be disruptive if the result does not go his way. Both candidates have said in various ways that they will respect the results but also that they have won. Ulgalde asked the candidates to shut up until the count was done but both disrespected his suggestion.

Third, if Calderon wins he may not be the friend that the US would expect. The division in the Congress and Senate will be about a third a third a third. A narrow margin may compromise his natural direction. What's more the Bush Administration's lack of attention to our neighbor since 9/11 means NO Mexican president would be smart to work hard on excellent relations. If AMLO wins the problems between our two countries could be enlarged.

There were two excellent resources on the election which Liveblogged the election - the first was MarkinMexico- which is an American guy in Oaxaca. His posts last night presented a clear picture of the election as it was developing.

The second came from Real Clear Politics - Michael Barone at Real Clear Politics - who is pretty good on American politics also seems to understand what is happening in Mexico. He was in Mexico City and did a long series of posts which were posted to RCP this morning. Barone had some good analysis as well as simply the results. Barone pointed out that there was a heavy rain in Mexico City (which is an AMLO strong hold) which may have held down turnout for AMLO. By Wednesday, this should be sorted out. Let's hope that whatever the results that both of the major sides will respect the final count.