Saturday, July 08, 2006

Mexico Election 10 - Demagogues and Democracy

Today, Andres Manual Lopez Obrador held a rally in the center of Mexico. AMLO was in his best form. He called the election a fraud. He made threats - "If there is not democracy, there will be instability" He contended that, despite all of the other reporting on the election by independent and outside observers that the election was somehow stolen from him. "We are aware we are confronting a powerful group, economically and politically, that are accustomed to winning at all costs, without moral scruples." Is he not be talking about himself? Is the powerful group the voters? Clearly this was a close election, but elections are about votes and he seems to have lost by several hundred thousand of them. If you look at the electoral map of Mexico it really does look like a north-south split(for the most part).

One political commentator suggested the following "What marks López Obrador's attitude is not the construction of democracy, nor the consolidation of his own political force, but an evident ambition for personal power,If it was said that López Obrador was messianic, he is confirming it with each one of his acts since Sunday." That was Jorge Fernández Menéndez. It sums up what a good number of people are thinking.

Calderon, on the other hand, seems to be prepared for these tantrums. He spent some time talking about the futility of creating a border wall but also of the need to think more carefully about some elements of trade and Mexico's trade with the US that should be re-examined - especially as it relates to agriculture.

The language among AMLO's supporters is pretty heated. For example at Milante
there is a lot of talk about fraud. What is disturbing about this is the way it seems to have been organized. One could make the case (although I would not) that Gore deserved a full recount in Florida in 2000. But every external report of the election, from all but partisan observers, has commented on the excellent way in which the election on Sunday was carried out. But in this case AMLO and his supporters are not really concerned about anything but their own political ambitions - the voters be damned. We will watch over the next couple of days to see how this tactic is accepted in Mexico.

The PRD got its most significant share of the Congress in history, that could be a force for raising the issues that the left would like to raise in this new government. But AMLO is not a part of that - he figures if not now, then he (personally) will not be president. My suspicion is that some members of the PRD will be turned off by AMLOs responses. Calderon has already met with some of the other leaders of the PRD. So I continue to hope that the Mexican people will see through this naked grab for power and will reject it.

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