Mexican Election - 6

The verification process on the election seems to be close to completed. This process was not a recount. In each of the electoral districts the votes were counted and then a tally sheet was created. The tally sheets are the things being verified and only under some very limited circumstances can the actual vote counts be reopened. That structure in the Mexican law was done to prevent the kinds of things which Gore tried to do in Florida in 2000. With almost all of the votes counted Calderon seems to have come back into a very narrow lead. (.11%)

As I have read the blogs (great coverage at Mexico Voices) there are a couple of things going on. First, some have speculated that AMLO may lose because of the late entry of Patricia Mercado - who was a leftist entry from the Socialdemocrats and Farmers party. She may have drained left votes away from him. She got just under 3% of the vote. It could be argued that Roberto Campa offset some of Calderon's votes but his total was much lower. So his effect, even if he did drain votes, was much less. Madrazo's votes could also have been seen as anti-AMLO votes - although that is much less certain. Second, it seems likely that when the certified tally is announced that AMLO (if he loses) will bring this election to the courts. As noted previously, all of the indications on this election are that it was conducted with the highest international standards. There are some AMLO supporters who are claiming they might go to the streets if the courts do not seem to be going in the right direction - so for at least a while, the uncertainty will remain. The 2000 electoral map was pretty simple - the divisions between the PAN and the PRI and one PT state winner - were pretty clear. This time, when the IFE publishes the map - it is likely to be a bit more jumbled. Whoever, wins this election will have to remember what one person in the newspaper said - "He got 14 million votes but there are 106 million who did not vote for him, he should remember that."

There was a long article last night about Calderon and how he should govern (assuming Calderon wins in the end). It suggested that because of the tightness of the vote, he has the opportunity to attempt some reforms that would reduce the power of the interest groups who still have a major power in Mexico - the concentrations that link economic and political power in oil and telephones are two. That may be a very good idea.

The American papers seem to have evidenced their underlying preferences in a lot of their coverage. For a short time AMLO stepped into the lead but, at least according to the bloggers, a lot of that came from where the verifications were coming from - AMLO strongholds. It is too bad that they don't do what the IFE has tried to do, simply report the facts.

Finally, I come back to the head of the IFE. Throughout these last three days, he seems a perfect example of where Mexico is going. Several times he has told both of the major candidates to cool their jets. He has done a good job in trying to sort out the results fairly.