The Post American World

At almost the end of his excellent The Post American World, Fareed Zakaria asks an interesting, but seeming non-foreign policy related, question. In 1982, there were 78 seeds in the US Open Tournament who were Americans. In 2007 there were only 20. He asks the very pertinent question - were American tennis players getting worse? The answer is NO, there were new areas where good tennis players were coming from. The analogy in that question extends to what he describes as the Post American World.

Zakaria presents some interesting chapters on China and India but also on the decline of the British realm in the 19th Century. He argues that Americans have faced not a decline in their own situation, but like the tennis players in the Open, an increase in the number of competitors - in his words "the rise of everyone else." Unlike the decline in the British empire our problem is not economic, it is fundamentally political. How do we transition from a world where we are the dominant force to one where we are important but not dominant?

He then offers six prescriptions - They are #1 - Choose (too often American foreign policy answers yes to all options rather than making explicit choices. #2 - Build Broad Rules not Narrow Interests - we need to think intelligently about how to coordinate on issues like customs and immigration. His argument is that our customs and visa policies for example are hurtful to our long term interests. #3 - Be Bismark, not Britain - Ultimately the solution here is a rule from legendary British PM Lord Palmerston - No permanent friends, no permanent enemies, only permanent interests. Bismark was strategic. #4 Order a la carte - here pick the options from the range - what Richard Haass (the former State Department person) called a la carte multilateralism. #5 - Think asymmetrically - don't get drawn into traps. Finally, #6 - Legitimacy is Power - the preciousness of conquering anxiety is critical.

Zakaria is not a raging collaborationist but he looks a lot like the old time realists. Ultimately, he thinks we should look at options. The devils from the GOP and the Democrats, as well as for people like Lou Dobbs are simply not going to be useful if the US is to maintain its prominence. Palmerston, was right for the British in the 19th Century and right for us in the 20th. This book is a refreshing analysis that should be widely read.