Whistling in the Dark

The NYT carried a story this morning about results of a CBS/NYT poll which IMHO is suspect. It concludes that a) voters are unaffected by the stories about the increasingly bizarre behavior of Senator Obama's former pastor and b) that they understand that the gas tax holiday proposed by Senators Clinton and McCain is a gimmick.

But as you look at the poll, here is some data which seems to contradict the substance of the story. For example, in February, the same poll found that 59% of projected democrat voters thought Mr. Obama was the stronger candidate, but according to the poll results now the results are about even. If the Wright story is not hurting Mr. Obama's position then what is? On the toughness scale Obama comes in behind both Senator Clinton and Senator McCain. According to the poll only 24% of the voters thought the Wright issue would affect their vote. But in any recent election putting 24% of the electorate in play should be worrisome. What's more the poll respondents think almost half of the voters will be affected by the story.

On the gas tax - the poll seems to say that the voters understand they are being pandered to by Senators McCain and Clinton. But that understanding does not seem to diminish their support for the policy nor does it increase support for Obama. Don't get me wrong, I think Senator Obama is correct on the issue. That notwithstanding I believe he is wrong on the politics.

We do way too much polling in any election cycle but these results suggest that the media should also be a bit more careful in analyzing results.

UPDATE - in an update the Times changed the lead for the story to say that "In Poll, Obama Survives Furor, but Fall Is the Test" - that is a much more reasonable introduction to the poll results