It is always darkest before the Times

As covered in a couple of earlier posts, the NYTs seemed last week to be rationalizing that the Wright story did not matter to the Obama campaign. Based on results in Indiana and North Carolina that is baloney. About half the voters yesterday thought the Wright matter was important - and for those who did between 57%(North Carolina) and 70%(Indiana) went for Clinton. Those who thought it not important went for Obama.

Ultimately, in spite of the gyrations that the NYT has gone through on this story, Wright is likely to be a continuing issue. But McCain would be wise not to wedge this issue. The concerns of voters on Obama's linkages to Wright will work their way through without the necessity of festering them. Roveesque strategies are not going to be helpful here.

I spoke this morning with a fellow political junkie who has recently begun working in higher education. During his career, this guy has worked for democrats. He expressed a couple of very cogent thoughts. First, he thought that the mood of the country is not positive for the republicans. I think that is fundamentally sound, and what McCain needs to do is to convince enough of the country that he is not one of them - at least on the issues that they don't like about the current incumbent. With his strong support for the war - many democrats think that is a circle that cannot be squared. I am not so sure.

But my colleague also offered the idea that Obama has to be able to prove to non-democrats that he is not a Dukakis (McGovern, Mondale). That also sounds right to me.

November will come down to which candidate makes the least errors. Both could sink themselves on their choice of VP, or a host of other issues. But neither should assume that conventional wisdom, such as that offered in much of the NYT coverage, is going to be helpful.