An Addendum to Moore's Law

In 1965 Gordon Moore speculated that the power of computers and costs would have a long term relationship that could be graphed. "The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer." The amazing thing about his insight is how long it has held true.

Next week I will get my new MacAir, the new Apple computer that is thin. Between my current Macbook Pro and the Air - both have Intel chips (a 2 Gig in my Probook and a 1.8 Gig in the Air) - Twin 667 SDRAM in both machines and some slight improvements in other areas of performance. The probook versus the G-4 added some speed in processors and some other improvements. Likewise earlier models added something. But like all of the top of the line laptops that I have bought in the last several years - this one costs about $3000. (That is for the solid state device) Thus the revision would suggest that not only will technology increase in its capabilities but that the final cost of the new laptop will be $3000.