Saturday, August 11, 2012

Paul Ryan for VP - A great choice

Governor Romney's choice of Paul Ryan is a home run pick.   Almost immediately, the Obama people tried to paint him as someone who would end Medicare.    Expect  that they will continue their negative and false attacks.

Here are some reasons why this is a great choice -

1) Ryan has made a career in his seven terms in congress of being focused on ideas not attacks.   That will be in stark contrast to the attack dog mode of the Obama campaign.  Political insiders believe that constant attacks always win.   Ryan has proven in seven terms that ideas do count in politics.  Conventional wisdom may be wrong here.   A key feature of the Campaign (reviewed last night) was how idiotic campaign discussions have become.  Ryan has the possibility of helping to elevate the level of campaign discussion.

2) He is popular in Wisconsin.   The RCP polling puts Obama up by 5.4% but keeps the state in a toss-up range. This could move those numbers a bit.  He also probably helps in Iowa where the numbers are even closer.   Combined that  is 16 electoral votes.   He should also play well in Ohio where the 18 electoral votes are also in the toss-up category.    What is more, from the current view he does not diminish prospects in any state.

3) It will focus the fall discussions for the election where they should be - on the economy and the budget.   That is not a place that the Obama team would like to be.   Most polling suggests voters are grumpy on issues like direction of the country and unemployment numbers. (Which most voters understand understate the problems)  The Obama team has tried to plant the meme that Romney is trying to regress to standards that did not work in the past.   And that may be successful.   But the contrast between the tired "we won't talk about entitlements and all we want to do is tax the rich"(Which the Obama team has been running hard on) may be even more stark.

4) He is articulate.   The contrast with Vice President Malaprop will be stark.

5) He can run as someone who is experienced yet not a part of the Washington establishment.   The negatives on DC at this point are very high.  Biden and Obama look like the poster children for the establishment.   Add to that the general malaise about growing Washington encroachment into our lives and the choice will be clear for many voters.

6) This move energizes the base.   For those who had reservations about Romney - those will be reduced or eliminated.  There is a good chance that this will also invigorate the same voters who broke so heavily toward the GOP in 2010.  So this becomes more like 2010 rather than 2008.  At the same time Romney has helped to move the conservative side of the aisle to focus on economics and government spending not social issues.   That is good for the long term health of the party.   At the same time if Romney is unsuccessful, the GOP will have a bright light for the next presidential cycle.

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