Wednesday, January 04, 2012

The Iowa Caucuses

Last night's 8 vote margin for Mitt Romney suggests an interesting spring - but an eventual result.   I came away with five conclusions about the state of the GOP primaries.

1. First, Romney needs to figure out how to engage effectively with the evangelicals.   Clearly, he has not.   2. Second, the GOP voters here were energized.  You can say a lot about whether the margin was too close or just enough - but the fact is there were a lot of people participating in the caucuses.   One does not feel the same amount of energy on the left.
3. Third,  Bachman and Perry are history.  (Gingrich should be, but he proved again that his mouth sometimes exceeds his mind.)
4. Fourth, I doubt whether Paul will run in a third party spoiler role - there are a couple of considerations .  His son has a promising career in the GOP but only if the dad knows when to bow out of the race but not the party.   At the same time, the string for Paul looks worse not better.   A lot of people have commented that Romney is a 25% candidate - but the same could be said of Paul (only with a slightly lower number). Some of those voters will never be satisfied without Paul but a lot will look for a candidate who does not seek to expand government.  If Romney can make that point - he will be successful.
5.  As soon as it is clear that Romney is the candidate watch the democrats begin to unload negatively - the professionals believe that negative campaigning works (as evidenced even in the last few weeks in Iowa) but there is good reason to believe that negative attacks by Obama may not be successful.   His future depends more on whether the American people change their mood about his lack of success in solving our economic problems than in cleverly crafted campaign ads.

2 comments:

eveningson said...

Not being an American, and from Switzerland, it is with great gusto that I watch the Republican primaries. Chucklefest. A wonderful time waster.

Which mad Republican will win this thing ?. And we have the joy of watching these Frankenstein-like creatures wobbling across stages for six wonderful months.

It is all meaningless of course. As the english have it,

"None of this historic field of jokers, morons and shills could ever get close to unseating Obama. They’re either too mad to win over the country, or they’re having to pretend to be so mad that they won’t be able to win over the country." There are still sane Americans in American and fortunately for the rest of the world they are the majority.

So what is going to happen...

well let me tell you and check back on election night in November. The Republicans are going to field either the lunatic Santorum or the pretend to be mad Romney.

Romney will win this and when it is won, Obama will shred him to pieces in the main election with all of the frothing at the mouth idiocies he was forced to say seeking to seduce his really strange base that have taken over the Republican Party. What is weird is that Romneys party will only be tepid to him because basically he was not crazy enough.

Landslide I am saying for the Dems unless someone, say Colin Powell, gets drafted and we all know he is too sick for that.


o.

Dr. Tax in Sacramento said...

While I understand the thoughts here, I am not yet sure how it will come out. This election, given the unemployment rate, is the Republicans to lose. This is not 2008. But then the GOP has proven adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I would also like to see how the defense proposals play out.