Thursday, March 24, 2011

The Dynamic Recovery and other fantasies

Durable goods orders (they are just like they sound) dropped by .9% in February according to the Commerce Department.   Excluding transportation equipment that is the second month of decline.   Orders for things like computers (capital goods) also fell by 1.3% which followed a 6% decline last month.

The Obama administration has hung its hat on unemployment claims which seem to be heading in the right direction.  They declined by about 5000 last week.   But many economists believe that these data series are flawed in that people who have given up looking for a job are not counted.

New home sales dropped 16.9% last month following declines in the last two months.  The median home price now reaches back to December,2003 for comparison.   Existing home sales fell in February, although that followed a couple of months of growth.  Some experts in this area suggest that the growth was conditioned on the number of foreclosed properties in the mix.

There are, indeed, some hopeful signs.  As the value of the dollar has declined exports are beginning to show signs of life.

Alan Greenspan in a speech to the CFR called the "Economic Costs of Governmental Activism" comments that  “Much intervention turns out to hobble markets rather than enhancing them.”   The evidence above seems to confirm the judgment.

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