Developments in Massachusetts

I'm not very good at predicting elections, especially in a place like Massachusetts. But the indicators from RCP suggest that even if Coakley is able to win, democrats across the country will reassess their "mandate", or will they? Among the early indicators in this race Brown leads among the independent voters (in polling) by 21% (58-37). He leads among those who have already voted by 16% (58-42). The New York Times describes the current situation as follows "Democratic enrollment has fallen from 48 percent of the electorate in 1984 to 37 percent last year. And thanks largely to votes from independent voters in the suburbs, Massachusetts was led by Republican governors for 16 straight years, until Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat, broke the streak with his 2006 landslide election. Now Mr. Patrick is dealing with slipping approval ratings as he seeks re-election." Even more of interest is the current Intrade ranking which has Brown up by a comfortable margin - Intrade is the political futures market.

From my perspective, the more interesting question about this special election is not who will win but whether it will cause the leaders in congress to think a bit more carefully about the rush to pass the health bill. The strong story in the last eight weeks has been that a) a huge number of voters do not like the process that brought us to where we are and b) a slightly smaller number, but still a majority, think the bill is seriously flawed. Some congressional leaders and even the President have commented that they believe that opposition comes from ignorance. If the process has been as transparent as congressional leaders and the President claim it has been, how can that be?