Five truths about the election

As I have watched the last week unfold, I think there are some realities of this election cycle that are beginning to emerge.

#1 - If the election is a referendum on George Bush, any democrat will win.
The story told in an earlier post about the politico in the Red Carpet Room in LAX is one example of that logic. Whether Bush has accomplished something important during his presidency is something for the historians to sort out. (I suspect he will be criticized for a lot of his visions about domestic policy but he might actually get a bit more credit than he gets now for his views of the threats in the Middle East.) McCain has shown an ability to separate himself from the GOP in a lot of ways - on campaign spending (McCain Feingold), on national service - but he has been a strong supporter of the President on Iraq. Many democrats believe that the American people are fed up with Iraq and will accept any plan to extricate us from there. If they act on that belief it could prove fatal to their electoral desires.
#2 - If the voters decide Mr. Obama is a lot like Pastor Wright, regardless of his rhetorical skills, he will lose.
As discussed in an earlier post this week, for me the Obama speech was unsatisfying. What was particularly unsatisfying was his inability to transcend democrat shibboleths that have helped to define racial issues for the last several decades. The more that the race issue is presented in terms of opportunity, the more we will continue to solve it. The more it is presented in terms of victims, as Pastor Wright seems to want to define it, the less chance we will have for resolution. Obama had a chance to make that leap but I think his inexperience showed him unable to do it. In the long term, in spite of the adulatory comments from many in the press, I believe Obama's speech this week will not play well.
#3 - McCain is the unknown at this point.
In the last month McCain has been very successful in defining himself in a way that the American people seem, at this point, to accept. A month ago some pundits were arguing that he would never reconnect with the conservatives. That seems to be wrong. But there is a streak in the Arizona senator that is unpredictable. The last month has looked bad for the democrats. Dennis Miller argues that the flap on Pastor Wright (and possibly Tony Rezko) and Obama's response has put the democrats in a muddle - they cannot reject Obama as their nominee (if they do lots of voters will simply sit on their hands) but if he is the nominee the vast majority of Americans will reject him. Inevitabilities in this election year have proven hard to come by and McCain could still do something silly.
#4 - The VP selection may become important.
The more I look at how things are shaping up the more I believe that the selection of VP on both tickets may actually mean something this time. The job that John Nance Garner called not worth "a warm bucket of spit" has mostly been an appendage. But in this year, it could become important. Don't believe that the dems will be able to construct the dream ticket of Obama and Clinton (or the other way around). But the selection could be a major factor in this race.
#5 Conventional wisdom in politics is not all it is cracked up to be.
This is an odd statement, for someone who writes a lot about politics and often uses conventional wisdom. But I believe that the American people are ready for a different kind of politics. The handlers, including those who handled the current president, are in disfavor. In many ways they should be. We were manipulated by them into an election season which is about twice as long as most Americans can stomach. The more a candidate looks like they are handled, the less likely they will be successful. Does that mean handlers will disappear? Of course not. But it does mean that a candidate who looks less managed will do better.