Timing in the California Election

The Rasmussen poll on the California Governor's race shows a six point lead for the democrat, Jerry Brown, for a survey that was in the field on October 13.  Rasmussen, if anything has a bias slightly toward Republican voters so that is not good news for former E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman.  What is unclear is whether the last debate, which Whitman clearly won, will have any effect.  The poll shows a very small (4% undecided) which sounds a bit strange.   But there are two risks to Whitman not evidenced in the poll. First, if voters who vote by mail cast their vote before the third debate, or were not influenced by the debate, Whitman is not likely to turn the margin around.  Second,  if the effects of the phony lawsuit thrown up by media hound Gloria Allred have a negative effect on Latino voters Whitman may not have a chance to turn things around.   If voters have not cast their ballots and were aware of the third debate then Whitman probably has a chance.