Where we are in this election cycle...

Last week when I was in DC I had the chance to hear Charlie Cook, one of the best analysts of the political scene. He was not ready to call the 2010 election cycle but he did say the President's numbers do not look good. He talked most specifically about the defections of the independents who voted heavily for Obama in 2008 and seem to be deserting him in 2010. Then there is the WMUR Granite State Poll among independent voters in New Hampshire, he now stands at 39%, a 28 percentage point drop since October, or about 2 percentage points per week.

Cook commented that the President's polling on personal characteristics are still pretty high. That is confirmed in the WMUR poll. There his favorability ratings are also down, though slightly less so although the numbers are also down - 52% still feel favorable toward the president and 41% don't.

There are two explanations about the drop in favorability. The first put forth by some of Obama's supporters is that the (to use the words of Hillary Clinton during the Clinton Administration) "a vast right wing conspiracy" has constantly yammered the president's numbers down. A slight variation of the argument is that the President tried to do too much in the first year and because he was too ambitious voters have turned on him.

The alternative is much simpler. The American people do not like his policies. There is a perception that this administration has tried to bring too much under the control of the federal government. Its' view is too expansive for our current tastes. We're worried about the deficits whatever their cause and not happy about the projected costs of things like health care reform.

From my view, the second explanation is a lot more credible. The consequences of acting on the first explanation is that it does nothing to bring back the all important independents. Cook did not make any final projections, the American people seem pretty grumpy about the GOP too, but he did argue that it was possible that both houses of congress could be in play in November. From what has developed thus far in polling, in retirements of members and in primary results that change could become inevitable unless the President makes some adjustments.