An exchange in the cloud

My daughter is a fine blogger. No I do not have a picture of her on a pony. In a post today, she made the following comments (NOTE: she writes about fashion and feelings from the classic LA neighborhood of Los Feliz.)

She made some interesting reflections in a post called the California Bubble on the state of the 2008 election and how living in LA might not be a good place to understand what is actually going on -- She said - It happens all the time, people in California forget about the rest of these united states. My friends and I are guilty of assuming that everyone else thinks like we do. And it's an easy assumption you make. I remember in my vegetarian years 10 years ago, travelling to New Orleans and being so shocked and dismayed at the "fresh" produce offered. Everything was so small; there were no fruits but apples and bananas; a cashier did not know what an artichoke was when I asked for one.

Politics are no different than produce selections in that you are comfortable with what you are used to.

Activists, campaign volunteers, haters, political enthusiasts, undecideds, unregistereds and celebrities alike are all talking about Obama. On my way to work, car's bumpers are peppered with stickers announcing the driver's support of the Obama campaign and it seems like every 5th window has a HOPE & PROGRESS posters.

If you don't actually look at what is going on, it is easy to think that Obama is going to sweep the elections this fall.

I am skeptical but active in politics. I know everyone suffers from ennui, but not everyone registers to vote and then actually votes. I understand that.

I get so overwhelmed when I feel like I am being sold. The media coverage of the caucasus and the speeches and the dirt-uncovered and the candidate's responses makes me feel bewildered and lied to most of the time. It is all so confusing that I find myself disengaging.

MJC seems to keep abreast of daily changes so I get most of my news from him. But MJC is also an unrelenting optimist...and possibly a Communist and certainly a bleeding-heart, so I find him an unreliable yet very lovable source. This is the man who took me out for our first date after losing a bet with me that Bush would not be elected into a second term.

My dad has suggested that McCain will win our next presidential election. I did my best to ignore him fearing another 4 years like the last. However, my heart sank and I lost some hope today when CNN.com reminded me about that whole damn dark RED middle of the US. CNN has an electoral map posted- It's dismaying to see how close the race may actually be in an image. CNN Electoral Map

So what to do? There are a few months left before our very LAME duck president leaves office and a bright shiny new one is sworn into office. Right now, CNN reports a narrow margin between the candidates with Obama at 47% and McCain at 41%. What does everyone's dinner party conversation, and bumper stickers and posters mean if the guy doesn't win? Will voters who claim they are so desperate for change actually do what they can to effect change themselves? Or will Obama be nothing more than today's new US weekly story, or Jonas Brothers CD or Crocs that everyone just had to have?

Obama's message is "Yes WE can."

But, as my mother always likes to say, "God helps those who help themselves".

I replied ---A couple of comments. It is wrong to think that McCain and Bush are the same candidates or to think that Obama is some kind of different candidate than a normal left of center politician. Unlike Bush - McCain does not want massive expansions of government. But in many cases Obama was the more conservative choice in the democratic primary. I am bothered by Obama's tax choices (see my blog to see an interesting chart) and his rhetoric on trade - which is nonsense. But there are also things that I think McCain has said that are silly - as I commented a few days ago- Paris Hilton has made the most sense on energy of any of the candidates.

Second, the CNN polling system is fundamentally biased. (Ergo some conservatives call it the Commie News Network) The best place to find out what is happening in any election is Real Clear Politics - they do a running average of all the polling. Third, California is not in play in this election and LA is especially not in play. Look to some other states to see if your candidate is going to win. Remember, electoral vote is really 50 contests and there are only about 10 states that are really in play.

I am bothered that both candidates in this election are being packaged and sold. I am perplexed by Obama's popularity - his real accomplishments are very thin. Yet he has felt it necessary to write two autobiographies (I am bothered by one of the two a great deal.) But then look at McCain's history - the S&L debacle, his seeming temper. I suspect that both candidates are better than they are being allowed to be portrayed. Handlers get in the way.

Ultimately, I am convinced in spite of your "darling" MJC (who I hope is not a communist) (Remember Berkeley's notion - "a man who is 20 and isn't a socialist has no heart and one who is 40 and not a conservative has no brain.) that the American people across the country have not made up their minds yet. McCain looks old - Obama seems remarkably underprepared for the job (look at his stuttering response on the Georgia crisis) - a lot will depend in the next few weeks on choices like who they choose for VP and whether either can make a compelling case for their point of view.

As I think I said several months ago - this could be the most interesting election in a generation.

August 13, 2008 11:28 PM

Last but not least I should have included the following graph--- Two AEI economists have done an analysis of the Obama tax plans - here is a graphic representation of their effects. That really gives me pause about the Senator - but that is for another conversation.



It was fun replying to my daughter's thoughts - almost as much fun as I had when we would take Sunday morning walks when she was a teenager.