Preliminary Thoughts on Governor Palin

McCain's nomination of the Alaska Governor looks pretty good at first blush for a couple of reasons. First, she has more executive experience (as Mayor, Governor and leader of an Association of Mayors) than either Obama, McCain or Biden. Second, from her introductory speech - she seems pretty well spoken. I could see her tying Biden in knots - he is used to the rhythms of the Senate. Third, neither party will be much divided. There has been a lot of talk about crossovers. I suspect, while she may have some chance to get Hillary voters (although who knows - Obama and Clinton did a good job in doing the preliminary heal of that breach) McCain has locked in all but the looniest of conservatives. Fourth, the Alaska problems actually work in her favor - she ran against the machine. When compared to Biden she also looks like a legitimate outsider. The ability of Obama to claim the mantle of change will be in serious question with a 35 year veteran senator on his ticket. Conversely, McCain is still an outsider and he reinforced it. McCain was smart enough to think outside the box (Obama's choice did not accomplish that and IMHO made him look more like a Washington insider - that is not space he wants to occupy.) Finally, she helps to reinforce in some areas where Obama has fewer cards (Colorado and most of the West including New Mexico) - I can see her talking to small town America. I am also not convinced that Biden is indeed the proxy for Joe Sixpack. His Washington demeanor - in spite of all his train rides - may simply not convince many about his roots.

But then the question comes does she seal the deal? My answer here is more equivocal. The last female on a ticket proved to be a disaster when she was fully vetted. It is unclear whether Mondale would have won in any event but Ferraro did nothing to help. Ultimately, this election will come down to how people feel about Senator Obama. That was reinforced by McCain's choice. Based on his speech on Thursday evening, I think he began a process of helping to build an image that might work - but there is a long time between now and election day. Worst case for the GOP - Palin could prove an unknown quantity. Or the dems could be successful in tying McCain to Bush - they sure tried during this week. Worst case for the Dems - Obama does not build his ratings on leadership abilities. Right now the American people are unsure about him. If he does not overcome that he loses. But at this time - it is an interesting choice.