Developments on the iPhone - coming out of the Hyposphere

Today saw a lot of news about the iPhone. Some of it moved a pretty over-heated market. Apple took a percentage reduction in price which might have reflected reality or may have brought prices down to more reasonable levels. Apple has been pretty muted - although they did a good job of getting people to know about the product. But some of the cheerleaders did what you would expect.

First came some harder sales figures. AT&T suggested that there were 146,000 activations in the first two days of the product. That is under some estimates, especially Goldman's numbers - but the AT&T numbers may not reflect total sales because of delays in activations. (Although one would think people would not buy a $600 phone and then dilly dally with the activation. ) By any account AT&T's number is a huge one for the launch of a consumer device but not in the stratosphere that some people suggested sales would be. Pacific Crest’s analyst suggested that the expectations were wildly out of synch with reality. AT&T noted that sales continue to be strong, which was confirmed by a random sample of local stores in my area. Apple said they still expect to sell 10 million phones by the end of 2008. One other analyst from CIBC world markets suggested that their spot checks suggest that demand has slowed in the last ten days. I am not sure how to interpret any of that. The market report of the CIBC estimates indicated that the firm had a possible conflict on the issue. They also suggested that a 3G phone would be out by November. Piper Jaffrey, who has been a cheerleader on this product, said the numbers mean little for the long run success of the project and also touted that Apple today announced a $69 Applecare plan. The real numbers are what they are and analyst’s guesses area also what they are. Better to wait for the hard numbers. The real numbers of 146,000 are pretty phenomenal. I suspect that a couple of things happened. First, there was an initial rush - which was visible. Second, demand continued to be steady for a while but finally sales came more into the realm of a normal product. I expect that as people understand the capabilities of the phone people will continue to be attracted to it.

Second, came some reviews. Eric Barger, on Appleinsider offers a comparison with the newest Blackberry. It is one of the most thoughtful reviews I have seen. He was generally complimentary to the product and expressed real appreciation for visual voice mail and response time on the screen. He also banged the Balckberry on the inflexibility of the contact fields. In an interesting twist, which I think is fundamentally accurate, he raps the Blackberry compared to the iPhone on almost all features. He does note that Edge (the iPhone network) is slow. But the integration of functions in the Safari browser and other features are far superior to the Blackberry. He compares the push email of Blackberry to the iPhone and has nice things to say about each- although for the hardcore email user he rates the Blackberry higher. But he also raises questions. For example, in the iPhone one must download a message to be able to forward it to another person. The synch features for the Blackberry are also compliented. I've found and he agrees, that for heavy use, WIFI is superior for the iPhone both because of the speed and also because all the functions perform more smoothly. But when it comes to the calendar function the iPhone outshines the Blackberry easily. (And I agree). The integration of features in the iPhone is something I appreciate more every day. He was not so complimentary on the earbuds(for example no noise reduction), nor the lack of ability to use a type in on the contact list. He also is annoyed that the current design limits the number of earphone jacks that can be used. He is very complimentary of the Video iPod part of the phone - saying it is easier to use than the regular video iPod (expect those features in generation six). Although he dinged the bluetooth battery consumption (I have not noticed it) he thought the integration of the iPhone bluetooth functions was far superior. One feature I have liked has been the ability to switch between the Motorola unit in my car, my headset, the speakerphone and the handheld device. I am not overly impressed with the speaker phone. And I really like the conferencing feature which is very simple. He also pointed out some obvious comparisons that are likely to change soon - for example you can download ring tones to the Blackberry. Not yet on the iPhone.

The Blackberry does not have a camera and the iPhone is ok but not close to perfect. I have always thought the camera on a phone is a bit of an unnecessary add on. The iPhone is ok in good light but I would prefer to use something like a real camera. Compacts today are small and easy to pack in a briefcase.

He concludes that there are eleven feature sets which should be looked at which include - cut and paste(I was surprised not to find that since it was an Apple essential in all OSs going back to the original OS) , a landscape keyboard (which you can use in some programs but not all), a better file system, mass email deletion, mass email deletion, a way to use the phone as an internet connector for your laptop, MMS support (not something I care much about), ability to use WAV and MP3 in email, and a couple of other features. But Barger calls himself an iPhone convert. I suspect that many of these ideas will come out in software updates in the coming months.

Bob Levitus, of the Houston Chronicle was a lot briefer, he made the following comment “When the review unit goes back to Apple, I’m buying one.” That about sums it up. As noted, with three weeks of use I am still a very happy camper. For the last few days I have been using it in Mexico. The phone coverage seems to be better than my Razr in the same places.