Polls and their meaning

The last Field Poll before the primary suggests that we will have a very low turnout today for the California primary. They estimate that less than 35% will show up to vote. One wonders why it will be that high. This season has come to new lows which should depress most voters. The Founder of the Lincoln Club of Fresno County wrote a piece this morning called the "Political Misery Index" That is a good metaphor. If you live in Placer County, John Doolittle offers up a host of reasons not to vote - from his 15% rule (his wife takes 15% of all your contributions as a campaign consultant's fee), to the bizarre defense he has made of his lackluster career in Congress. If you live in Nevada all one needs to look at is Harry Reid. The rest of the country is replete with other indicators of the misery index. But in California, the Field Poll points out that respect for the Legislature is at new lows. The Governor is back up to just over 40%. We have a lefty idealogue named Reiner who has pushed his harebrained ideas about preschool using tax dollars as campaign contributions(increase taxes on the wealthy to force all little nippers to go to one kind of government sponsored preschool) and know that even if Proposition 82 fails (as it should) we are stuck with his prior initiative. If you look at the business of the US Senate for the next couple of weeks - can you believe that the five most important issues the country needs to deal with are the five the leadership has chosen to highlight -regardless of how you feel on any one of them? There are plenty of reasons to be disconsolate. California may not be unique but we certainly have many reasons to be glum.

But I would also contend that some of the misery index is unjustified. The economy has done pretty well in the last 12 months. There are other positive indicators. There are some movements to change the system in a number of ways. From reforming the parties to changing the way we elect people. Some of the ideas are downright looney. As noted in an earlier post, I believe the movement to change the Electoral College by fiat is a bad idea both from a Constitutional perspective and from a policy one. But as one looks at this growing ferment one can have hope. The old media is increasingly being challenged. So are old ways of doing things in politics. At some point, the political class, should begin to recognize what the media are beginning to perceive - the formula approach (whether it is the formula of the left or the right) is not something which inspires confidence.

I am going to vote today - because in a small turnout my vote counts even more. But I also am going to vote because it is an ultimate optimistic expression of what our representative system can become. But after this campaign, that optimistic feeling needs a lot of reinforcement.