Sunday, March 25, 2012

Transposing Logic

For months a lot of "conservatives" have been arguing that Mitt Romney has not been able to close the deal because he cannot seem to get above the 30-35% among GOP voters (see the earlier post Rush is Wrong) - with several candidates in the race it seems odd to me to make that claim.   Romney is written off by these "pundits" as a) not appealing to conservatives and b) a candidate who cannot be successful in one part of the country - the South (and without the South no GOP candidate can win).

Well, yesterday Rick Santorum got 49% of the vote in the Louisiana primary.  So far Mr. Santorum has been unable to get ratings above 50%, indeed in contested contests he frequently has gotten less than 30%.   I am not ready to say that Mr. Santorum is out of the race (although he seems to be on a downward  cycle).   And I believe that as the race continues to clarify, the GOP front runner will be able to pick up additional areas.   For example, I do not believe that whether Romney or Santorum is the nominee that any of the deep south states will go to Obama.

Thus it seems that the Romney nay sayers will be just as wrong as the argument made above about Santorum.  The only difference is that Romney has about half number of committed nominators he needs to be chosen by the GOP.   That does not assure that the key states like the industrial midwest will not be in play( they will).  But it does suggest that anyone who is offering a final view of the 2012 election is smoking funny cigarettes.

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