Saturday, April 09, 2011

Oregon Trail Budgeting

A niece of mine did a Facebook post from a post in Reddit  which says "The US budget is like a 1st grader playing Oregon Trail. Spend all the money on ammunition so you can shoot at stuff, then wonder why your wagon is falling apart and everyone is dying of dysentery."  It is an interesting point but got me to think about what the numbers on the budget actually are.   It turns out the calculation is not as easy as one would think.


There are at least two judgment calls involved.  First, what percentage of all the defense related stuff not in the DOD do you add to the DOD budget.  For example, is there a military purpose for NASA?   Second, what percentage of the national debt is attributable to current and past wars? That translates into debt service which is a part of the budget.  (about 6% now but growing) There the estimates seem to be ideologically driven.  The estimates I have seen range from a low of 15% to a high of 91%.   


Ultimately the conclusion is right.  At this point the budget is a zero sum game.  Add to one portion and you need to take from another, especially if 40% of the budget is debt financed.  (Consider that of that deficit the military portion is about 8% of the budget alone.)  But in this case the ultimate question just like in Oregon Trail - how do we set priorities.

No comments: