Trouble in Mind

Facebook has a poll up.
If the 2008 Presidential Election were held today, would you vote the same way?
- I voted for Obama and I stand by that vote.
- I voted for Obama and regret it. I would change my vote today.
- I did not vote for Obama and I stand by that vote.
- I did not vote for Obama, but now I like him and would vote for him today.
- I didn't vote. But given the chance I would support Obama today.
- I didn't vote and I really should have. I would vote agaisnt Obama today.

This is after six months of the Obama presidency. There is always a low spot about now in the first term of a president. And the President has had a couple of very rough weeks. His administration's response to Honduras was laughable - supporting the return of a "pre-totalitarian" who was ouster by constitutional means was a horrible choice. Support for the administration's fiscal policy including the range of bailouts and impositions of controls on the economy is losing support quickly. There is uncertainty about his health care plan (there should be - the post office running health care is simply not a good image). And unsurprisingly his poll ratings are falling.

On the other side the President's first nominee for the Supreme Court acquitted herself well this week. I would not make her my first choice as a nominee, but I do believe that she is well qualified to be a justice. I also believe she will elevate the level of discussion on the court based on her circuit court experience compared to her predecessor. I also think for the most part the President's appointments have been sound. That is really all you can expect from the range of appointments that any administration makes.

The real test will come when people begin to understand how expansive this administration proposes to be in health care, in the management of the economy and in other areas. The preliminary data suggests that as those proposals become evident
the American public will become less enchanted with the notion of Change. That seems to be reflected in a story by Robert Pear and David M. Herszenhorn in the NYT which suggests that democrats are growing wary of the President's health care plan. (They should.) The NYT describe the feeling among democrats as apprehensive, nervous and defensive. The Times comments that dems have begun to recognize that the proposal will not meet the goals proposed by the president either in terms of who would be covered or when it will be passed. At the same time there is concern that the costs of the program are beginning to be examined.

As the chart attached shows, every president suffers ups and downs of popularity. But this president is beginning to enter the realm of real poll numbers and a test will be whether he can handle the rough and tumble when he comes off the mountaintop.