Is history continuous or episodic?

My wife and I joined a new parish a bit more than a year ago. We joined a prayer group which has been working our way through the New Testament. Last night we had a discussion about the book of Jude. One member of the group, in discussing her perception of the current state of the world, brought up the theory (I think originally from Edward Gibbon in the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire) that all civilizations go through an inevitable cycle of growth and decline.

From my perspective that look at the world is both unduly pessimistic and wrong. At every point in history there are indicators of advance and decline. As we evolve we need to make good choices but I guess I concluded that I am fundamentally a Hayekian Christian. Hayek had an inherently positive understanding of individual decision making. He did not argue that all individual decisions would be correct, rather he thought that the unique blend of "knowledge of time and place" that each individual carries would help to guide us as a society. Hayek of course wrote about the "Fatal Conceit" of centralized decision making but I think inherent even in that book, he understood that ultimately the individual could prevail over those kinds of errors.

I would add one thing which Hayek did not. Technology ultimately adds two dimensions which reinforce the basic notion. First, technology can help to defeat centralized authority - not immediately but over the long term. The role of Twitter in Iran right now is a good example. Second, technology, as it seems to be evolving, allows some kinds of positive social organizing (including things as diverse as Facebook and open source software) which all new types of interaction.