More on the conundrum

The news this week about the May Jobs Report primarily from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was carried as scary. Business Week trumpeted that unemployment jumped by the highest rate in a long time from 5% to 5.5%. ADP, the payroll services company also does an employment report, which in many ways supplements the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The BLS reports gave a couple of interesting numbers. First, civilian labor force between first quarter and May - lost jobs, although the drop between April and May was more substantial. But service producing jobs actually went up according to the BLS. Education and health services and hospitality jobs and of course government jobs actually went up.

The ADP numbers break out the stats a bit differently. First, they compare small businesses (50 or fewer employees) to medium and larger ones. Small businesses had a gain while the other two suffered a decline. Goods and manufacturing declined while service producing jobs actually increased.

What this says is that the simplified employment numbers that we all heard earlier in the week are a bit more complex. Not everything in the economy is bleak.

Neither of these posts was written to claim that there are not problems in the economy at this point. We are living through some significant fluctuations in prices (oil and some parts of the food chain) which at least some economists believe were self inflicted. At the same time the construction industry is going through a significant decline in some areas - again some of those wounds were self inflicted. The appropriate response to these trends may not be traditional even numbered year things like raising unemployment and extending benefits. This is probably not the first time that is true.