Monday, May 21, 2012

Facebook Election

The map at the right is from a new new APP (Wisdom) that generates data about Facebook.  It shows political preferences for Facebook users.   That is a quite different picture than what seems to be going on in the electorate.  But then the average Facebook user is 32 years old and has an income of about $49,000.   Even Texas is questionable for Romney.   Wisdom is able to produce a whole bunch of interesting data which I think sets out who users are and what they think.

There are a couple of obvious cautions.  First, not all users fill out a profile.  Second, and more obviously, Montana, which is seen as a blue state - probably has a lot of Montana college students and not to many ranchers in the profile.   This is a lot like the popcorn poll which projected that Truman would lose in 1948.  I think the picture is reliable of who fills out the profiles - just not reliable about the larger trends.   If, over the next few months, this map begins to turn redder - Obama will be in big trouble.

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