Monday, May 21, 2012
There are a couple of obvious cautions. First, not all users fill out a profile. Second, and more obviously, Montana, which is seen as a blue state - probably has a lot of Montana college students and not to many ranchers in the profile. This is a lot like the popcorn poll which projected that Truman would lose in 1948. I think the picture is reliable of who fills out the profiles - just not reliable about the larger trends. If, over the next few months, this map begins to turn redder - Obama will be in big trouble.