Strategies for the Special

The ad campaigns are beginning to come out for the Special Election in California on May 19. A friend who is a distinguished political consultant and also a supporter child abuse prevention posted on the new ad on Proposition 1-D. He called the ad "devastatingly effective."

At the same time the supporters of the propositions have posted a combined ad that recommends voting for all six measures as a group and in 30 seconds makes a case that they are a package. In normal times that strategy might work. It may not this time. If opponents of the diversion strategy can create doubt on one of the measures then it is likely that they might be able to turn the tide. And if one begins to fall, they all will begin to crumble. (Except 1-F).

But there is a case to be made that the stick together strategy could also work. 1-F is clearly popular. The case made for the rest of them suggests that they will help to fund schools and set a spending limit that the "politicians can't violate." If that message gets through then the individual issues, like 1-D will be lost in the noise. It is still unclear how grumpy the voters are and that could determine the future of all of these issues.