Monday, January 12, 2009

The Minneapolis Fed on the Recession

The Minneapolis Fed did a release comparing the 10 previous recessions since 1946 to the current one. (You can see the full set of charts by clicking on the link.) The charts show both the length and depth of the recessions. Four charts are especially interesting. They show change in output and employment on a couple of different factors. The Minneapolis Fed is scrupulous in presenting the data as "real time" with very little comment. This recession is different in a number of ways from many of the previous recessions.

One caveat about looking at data. I have a favorite quote at the beginning of some speeches - Economists have successfully projected 11 of the last 3 recessions. It is unclear where the current trends will lead us. For example, the most recent unemployment data might either be comforting (we are very close to the bottom) or very troubling (this thing is really starting to become pernicious).



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