Friday, December 05, 2008

Accuracy would be an important component of disclosures designed to inform us



Presumably the distinguished chair of the House committee that will deal with the financial mess should have a modicum of knowledge about the economy. He was quoted today as suggesting that the unemployment rate which ticked up a bit more than expected was the worst in 30 years. The chart above is from the Department of Labor unemployment series. I am not sure how Barney Frank reads these kinds of things - but 6.7% is considerably lower than the recessions in 1976, 1982,1992 and ranks close to 2003. The black line presents the current rate as presented today.

If you look at the raw numbers in this downturn the numbers are the largest in 30 years - but that does not control as a percentage of the workforce - which is about in line with a lot of other recessions. A critical part of the media's responsibility here is to assure that they do not induce panic. The relentless yammering of numbers out of context are not helpful in assuring that we know the nature of the problem.

One other data point - for most of the 1930s the unemployment rate was over 15% and at times as high as 30%. Our current 6.7% is larger than recent data but nowhere near that prior level.

Even if you take the current projections that unemployment in this recession will trend up to about 10% by the end of the cycle - his remarks are off the mark. Isn't the job of our leaders to tell the truth? He is not alone, MSNBC also blurted out the same statistic. How can we hold these bozos accountable?

1 comment:

Prakash said...

good work . keep it u.. prakash