Saturday, December 02, 2006

The BCS has one too many letters

I am a Trojan. In this afternoon's game, UCLA out played us, they deserved to win. That took us out of the national championship game at the Fiesta Bowl on January 8. One could argue that UCLA with a bye and SC with two very tough games in the last two weeks, made the contest a bit uneven. But as I said at the start, UCLA won in a well played game. The Trojans did not have their normal zip.

For the last couple of years my son and I have gone to what was billed as the national championship game - first in Florida against Oklahoma (where the Trojans defeated the Sooners by a substantial margin) and this year at the Rose Bowl where SC lost to Texas in what was arguably one of the best games in recent memory. The year before that string, SC played in the Rose Bowl for a piece of the national championship. At that point the teams that played for what was called the national championship game, had a combined graduation rate for its "student" athletes that was lower than SC's alone.

Here is my point. Most student athletes will finish their careers in their school and then move not to the NFL or the NBA or MLB but to a job. It is indeed unfortunate that many schools do not admit this fact and use their athletes only until their eligibility is concluded. In some college sports it makes sense to have a national championship. But in football it makes less sense. On any given day, a top ranked team can beat another top ranked team. But also, as was demonstrated today, a top ranked team can lose to a seemingly lesser team based on a whole series of factors which may or may not be able to be replicated.

As one looks at the range of Division 1 football programs they clearly rank into at least two classes. The first, in my opinion, places like the Pacific 10, the Big 10 (now 12) and independents like Notre Dame, play against real opponents and assume that their athletes will graduate from college. The second, and I include many of the southern universities where football is more important than academics, are places where the student athlete is honored only in the breach.

Before the creation of the BCS, the Rose Bowl stood as a great and historic tradition. Each January 1, the teams of the Big 10 and the Pac 10 played a rivalry. Many times the games were interesting. But rarely was there a contest between two universities whose football record exceeded their academic accomplishments. As the BCS developed two things happened. First, the Rose Bowl was convinced, mostly for financial reasons, to give up its historic traditions (as were some of the newer bowls). Second, the system created a ranking system based on an absurd computer model - which often but not always reflected the opinions of experts.

In basketball and many other sports, a national championship makes some sense. First, the players play more games, so the high or low of one game are less important. Since the BCS was created there has been an almost weekly chatter about whether the ranking system is fair and accurate. That is not true for March Madness or for the College World Series. True, in March Madness, one bad game can knock you out. And also true there is always the chatter about where top ranked teams start their tournament. Unlike football, however, there is a general sense that the top 64 teams in the tournament have a shot to be there. In football however there are some variables that are not leveled. With all due respect, teams that demolish powerhouses like Western Carolina are not playing at the same level as ones that play a schedule where opponents are for the most part real. The BCS has helped to reduce the college championships to money. A BCS team can expect a whole lot of dough for playing in one of the championship series.

According to Wikipedia the allocation of slots for one of the big bowls goes as follows - "Certain teams are given automatic berths depending on their BCS ranking and conference, as follows: The top two teams are given automatic berths in the BCS National Championship Game. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, and SEC conferences are guaranteed automatic BCS bowl appearances. The highest ranked champion of a non-BCS conference will receive an automatic berth if it is ranked in the top 12, or ranked in the top 16 and higher than another BCS Conference champion. A special case is made for the independent (non-conference) team Notre Dame, which receives an automatic berth if it finishes in the top eight. If there is an available spot the third-ranked team will receive an automatic berth. Again if there is another available spot the fourth-ranked team will receive an automatic berth." Equally absurd are the minor bowls - Poinsettia (Dec. 19) • Las Vegas (Dec. 21) • New Orleans (Dec. 22) • PapaJohns.com (Dec. 23) • New Mexico (Dec. 23) • Armed Forces (Dec. 23) • Hawai'i (Dec. 24) • Motor City (Dec. 26) • Independence (Dec. 27) • Emerald (Dec. 27) • Holiday (Dec. 28) • Texas (Dec. 28) • Music City (Dec. 29) • Sun (Dec. 29) • Liberty (Dec. 29) • Insight (Dec. 29) • Champs Sports (Dec. 29) • Meineke Car Care (Dec. 30) • Alamo (Dec. 30) • Chick-fil-A (Dec. 30) • MPC Computers (Dec. 31) • Outback (Jan. 1) • Cotton (Jan. 1) • Gator (Jan. 1) • Capital One (Jan. 1) • International (Jan. 6) • GMAC (Jan. 7). Quick, I will give you a nickel for anyone who can name the winners of some of these bowls in the last three years. Most of them are who cares events.

So how would you reform the system? At the outset I am not sure that a national championship is a good idea in football. But if we are to think about changes there are two ways. First, one might shorten the regular season and then play off league winners through a playoff system, culminating in a national championship. The benefit of that would be similar to the basketball tournament (which admittedly has some flaws including where top teams play their first round). The defect here would be that colleges with traditional end of season rivalries would be shorted. SC normally ends its season (every other year depending on where the Notre Dame game is) with either Notre Dame or UCLA. Those rivalries are fun games because of their history and also because (as we saw today) of their unpredictability. An alternative would be to scrap the notion of a national championship and allow all of the sports fans from around the country the opportunity to argue the merits of their team. In my mind, that means less dough for the campus, but it is no less valid than the existing computer ranking system.

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