Where is Mexico?

Election Poll as of May 15, originally uploaded by drtaxsacto.

The Mexican election seems to be heading in a direction that is not unexpected. The picture above is from Angus Reid Consultants and suggests a couple of things. First, in the last 60 days the then apparent front runner (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) has started to falter.

Lopez Obrador dissed the poll and commented "This is part of a strategy, I can say no more, people do not believe in tricky polls, it’s that simple." But Obrador has shown to be a less adept campaigner than the early polls thought. He missed the first debate and tried to explain it away - but at least with the people I spoke with in Mexico - no one was buying it.

There is a worry that if AMLO is close in this election he will try to disrupt it but I am not sure that will happen. Three things seem to be happening. First, Calderon seems to be moving in the right direction. Second, AMLO seems to be moving in the wrong direction and at the same time Madrazo seems to be falling like a stone. There is a third factor that I think will be interesting in the final total - another left of center candidate has begun to emerge - Patricia Mercado has begun to show at least somewhat in the polls. Some who I have spoken with have thought that would come at the expense of AMLO - my impression is that she will garner at least some of the women's vote regardless of ideology.

Another interesting thing happening is there is an increased level of concern being expressed about the potential or actual involvement of Hugo Chavez - that has also surfaced in the upcoming election in Peru. The Venezuelan leader seems to want to have an effect on the world scene. But there is a lot of grumpiness about his potential invovlement in Mexico where he is alleged to be working for AMLO.

The election is on July 2. As we get closer the level of discussion among people I met there has increased. Last week the two topics that I was asked about most were immigration and the election.