Where is Mexico today?

In July the Mexican people will choose a new President to succeed Vicente Fox who was elected in 2000. Under Mexican law a president cannot succeed himself. There are three main candidates. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the former mayor of Mexico City - representing the left wing PRD; Roberto Madrazo former governor of Tabasco (the state not the sauce) representing the PRI; and Felipe Calderon,the former energy secretary of the Fox administration and president of Fox's PAN party - candidate for the PAN.

The three candidates are very different. AMLO, as Lopez Obrador is called, was a flamboyant mayor of Mexico. He seems to have coopted a lot of the business community there but also has a hint of corruption surrounding him, notwithstanding the bogus charges that some of his political opponents tried to nail him with. He accomplished some positive things while mayor but also ran up deficits. He has peculiar sleeping habits and an odd relationship with the press. He sees himself as a populist. There is a lot of worry in Mexico that were he to be elected he would go back to crony government in a populist mold - some have told me they compare him to Evo Morales of Bolivia or Hugo Chavez. There is some speculation that some of the founders of the PRD are uncomfortable with AMLO and may at some point try to derail his candidacy.

Madrazo has a string of troubles around him. Again there is a hint of scandal and some alleged links to drugs during his time as governor. He looks like an old time PRI candidate.

Calderon is a politician. But he is of a new breed. He did law school and then the ITAM which is the prestigious university that trains future government leaders and then the Kennedy School at Harvard. He has an attractive family. But he does not have the charisma of Fox.

Most of the polls suggest at this point in the race AMLO has a slight lead but the country is significantly divided. I have heard some political observers openly worry that if the race is close and AMLO comes in first or second he will try to claim victory. What struck me in conversations with a bunch of people in the center of the country was how unsettled I think the race is at this point. Perhaps most surprising was a conversation yesterday in Zacatecas with a public official officially allied with the PRD (the PRD holds the governorship there). This person told me in confidence that he is worried if AMLO is elected and he is personally unlikely to vote for him. From conversations I have had in several parts of the country I think AMLO could become increasingly less attractive to a number of people who voted for Fox in 2000 - regardless of their affiliation.

In 2000 I was in the state of Mexico (which was a PRI stronghold) and was in a restaurant and at the table next to us there was a PRI leader lambasting two associates next to him - this was right after the election. One of my friends had told me that the restaurant was a favorite haunt of the PRI people. I went back to go to the men's room and the bartender gave me a wry smile and then quickly opened one of his cabinets to show a YA bumper sticker. Fox's slogan for that year was YA! (enough) In spite of the uneven performance of Fox in this job I believe that the Mexican people are unlikely to put the system back in the box.

There is a lot of concern about the potential for AMLO to do badly - but there is also a strong countervailing sentiment - expressed to me by a young economist with the government this morning - that whoever is elected will be constrained by circumstances - a congress that is not unified and a division of powers among the governors that is healthy. The Mexican system was modeled after the US (it is actually called the United States of Mexico) but the federal system is more illusory than real but if AMLO were to try to move too far too fast I suspect that some of the smart governors (and there are a lot of them) would resist the movements.

So how does the election turn out? I have no idea, at this point but my optimism is much stronger after spending two days talking to governors and key staff in two states.