Higher Education from the Economist Perspective

Periodically the Economist prints a longer article that they call a survey. It is a thoughtfully constructed piece that deals with an issue area in depth. For example, before Micklethwait and Wooldridge published their excellent book on the challenges and promises of globalization the Economist published a survey. In the September 10 edition they published one of these ditties on Higher Education.

These things are always a mix of great stats and some interesting ideas. For example, the survey suggests that higher education, like almost no time in its history, is in a period of change. For an industry that celebrates in clothing derived mostly from the middle ages - that is a big statement. They offer four reasons for this. Massification - more people aspire to and are attending higher education. The Rise of the Knowledge Economy - in the last decade the role of knowledge based industries has shown itself in many ways. In my state of California - the leading industries are knowledge based - computers, biotechnology, entertainment, foreign trade and professional services. In OECD countries the percentage of GDP attributable to knowledge based industries has grown pretty quickly (from 51-59% in Germany in the last 15 years and from 45-51% in the UK). Third is globalization - what has transformed business will also transform universities. Finally there is competition - there are more choices and indeed more types of choices.

The most interesting conclusion of the survey is about future trends. They suggest that the reason that American higher education seems to lead the pack is because it is not a system. The state it turns out is not a reliable partner. They cite an index from Jiao Tong university that suggests that of the top 20 universities in the world (Based on a set of criteria that include things like Nobel winners and citations in referred journals) 17 are in the US (surprisingly 6 of those are in California). In the top 50 - 35 are US,in the top 100 - 53 are US based. The economist thinks that a good part of that is because of a limited role (no real ministry of education). But it also thinks that competition among private and public, proprietary and non - ultimately leads to good results. Finally there is something which seems obvious - American universities are not just places of learning but action - in their words it is "allright to be useful." They quote Henry Steele Commager - who said "education was his religion' provided that it "be practical and pay dividends." Actually a comment that Dickens made in his trip to America in the 1840s also hits the mark - "Whatever the defects of American Universities may be, they disseminate no prejudices; rear no bigots; dig up the buried ashes of no superstitions; never interpose between the people and their improvement; exclude no man because of his religious opinions; above all in their whole course of study and instruction recognize a world and a broad one too, lying beyond the college walls."

The survey does not suggest that American universities are granted this position in perpituity. With potential interventions by government, political correctness, a certain amount of isolation created after 9/11 and a number of other problems they could be challenged. But the Economist speculates that it will not come from the traditional European universities. Schroeder once commented that Germany had the distinction that it had the oldest graduates and the youngest retirees. There is a lot of promise in the developing world - at least in those countries where a ministry of education does not control the game.

Finally, they speculate that just as business now has to compete worldwide - with technology and travel - students and scholars have a much wider universe in which to compete. They conclude with four pithy points - first, a market oriented educational system is better able to combine "equity with excellence." At the same time the system produces a good mix of choices. With differing sources of financing and support the market model is more sustainable. Finally, serving many masters allows institutions to gain control over their own destiny.

Reprints of the entire article are available from their website

The Dean of the Senate Strikes again to the tune of $1 billion

The GAO released a report this morning which suggests that the Byrd amendment, which offers US corporations a payment when they are supposedly undercut by "unfair" foreign trade, is taking a real toll on taxpayers. In the last three years more than $1 billion of your money has been spent on a small number of companies. $205 million to Timken (roller bearings), Torrington ($135 million), Candle Lite ($57 million), MPB ($55) and Zenith ($33 million). The risk of Byrd is twofold. First, the alleged hurt from these "unfair" practices are illusory at best. Second, under the WTO processes this yields us retaliatory tariffs from our trade partners. Is the candle industry so under pressure that they cannot compete with foreign manufacturers? Even if they were, is this so vital an industry that they should be protected from candle makers outside the country?

On Timken's site the chairman talks about "strong leadership, strong vision" - what a crock! If they really believed in that they would compete.

Unfortunately, in the current environment of Congress, the former Klansman's colleagues lack the integrity to simply wipe out this nonsense.

The Role of Higher Education in Economic Development

In the second week in October I will be a participant in a celebration of 25 years of a university in Mexico City called Universidad Anáhuac del Sur. I have been working with the university for a bit more than a decade. I first became acquainted with UAS on a couple of very early projects in Mexico. I taught there for seven years in a school of business that is rated as one of Latin America's best. I helped to organize three international conferences at the university.

The university is part of a larger network of universities in Mexico, Spain, Rome and Chile and now the US. Their motto is “Vince in Bono Malum” - Vanquish evil with good. They are a Catholic university with a good set of values. They encourage an entrepreneurial spirit among their students.

My topic for my presentation is the university role in economic development - how does a university involve itself in building the economy of its area? What are the appropriate roles in terms of knowledge expansion, venture capital relationships, incubator projects and broader societal relationships?

The dean of the school of business is a young man. He has built a fine program. I am looking forward to being a participant in the celebration. As luck would have it, the Economist did one of their periodic surveys - those projects are long and thoughtful treatments of an important issue relating to what the magazine cares about - in this case the survey was on higher education. I will write more about this subject soon - but for now the conclusion was that the American "system" of higher education consistently beats the European one for one reason - it is not really a system. Mexico is beginning to grow and expand its higher education programs - in both the public and private sector. I have also worked with a public university in Aguascalientes that is the first of a series of polytechnic universities across the country. The trip to Mexico City is one I really look forward to - but first I will have to go to Nashville and Mexicali.

Rhetoric - Reality

The Wall Street Journal presented a chart from Brookings on recission requests by presidents since Ford. A recission request is one made by an administration to reduce appropriated amounts (or budget authority) when, for whatever reason, the funds will not/should not be used.

The numbers speak for themselves.

President/ Total Recission requests (in millions)

FORD (1974-77) $7935
CARTER(1977-81) $4608
REAGAN(1981-89) $43,437
BUSH (1989-93) $13,193
CLINTON (1993-2001) $6628
BUSH-II (2001-05) $0

Doing what is right about Katrinarita

The blogosphere is excited about pork. In a wonderful post at Beltway Blogroll there is a pretty good summary of blog opinion about the proposed levels of spending to respond to the hurricanes. Unsurprisingly, both the left and the right are concerned. Both are using the events to press things they would otherwise suggest. The left can use this as a chance to comment about the Administration's other priorities ("can't have guns and butter" is a phrase I still expect to see) while the right is urging some restraint in the political class.

In order to think about this issue one needs to divide the question. There are several things going on at once. Obviously, we need to take care of the immediate health and safety needs of the people in the wake of the storm. At the same time we need to think about rebuilding the destroyed buildings and infrastructure caused by the storm. Finally, we need to at least think about whether this period of time can also be used to restore the area to a better position. The first order of business should be to do some careful thinking about who should do what. Are all of these tasks the job of the entire nation or could some be best handled by state and local authorities or private activity? How much responsibility should the American people bear for restoring a city that was in almost continual decline over the last century?

The three questions (immediate health and safety, restoration and improvement) each have the opportunity for politicians to get in on rent seeking (on expanding what should be a normal response to something designed to aid the politician in other goals) - but as you move from the first to the third the potential for rent seeking increases exponentially. Part of the problem faced by New Orleans at this point is that past projects designed to rebuild or improve from prior storms have been used for pure pork. If some of the prior authorized funding for levee building was used on bike path construction should we as a nation be willing to supply more - at least without some substantial restraints? Can any political decision be protected against rent seeking?

Then there is the quasi political class and their ruminations. We've seen a lot of idle speculation by the proponents of global warming that these storms are a result of global warming. An MIT climatologist says there is not a causitive link. In Technology Review (the MIT Journal on Technology Topics that is absolutely first rate) that the link is not there. But as you would expect a scientist to do, his view on the linkages is nuanced. The article is at Technology Review (Subscription Required but you should get one if you are at all interested in technology issues!)

What was interesting about his comments was not what he said about the linkage but about how people used his data. At the end of the article there is the following quote -
"My experience is that most of the people who call me up, really want to know about the science, what do I really mean," says Emanuel. "Most people, if they have a political agenda, they are good at keeping it hidden."
But then there's the ever-growing commentariat, which answers to no one.
"The people who are politicizing it are doing it behind my back -- pundits writing on blogs or editorials whom I don't actually talk to," says Emanuel. "They don't want to know the truth. They want to use something somebody wrote to advance their agenda."

Some interesting numbers on Katrina

The Insurance Information Institute did a briefing on Hurricane Katrina which had some very interesting numbers. Here are some of them. 70% of the losses will come from Louisiana and about half of those are from homeowners. (As opposed to auto or commercial or offshore energy covered losses.) In the case of catastrophic losses tropical cyclones account for about a third of the covered losses, tornadoes account for about another third and earthquakes account for about the same percentage of losses as terrorism (at least 1984-2004). Five of the ten most expensive hurricanes in history have occured in the last thirteen months (Katrina and the four in 2004 mostly in Florida). Six of the ten most expensive disasters occured in the past four years. And five of the eleven most expensive disasters in world history have affected the US in the past four years. Those are all remarkable statistics. One other stat that is useful - for each of the 500,000 families displaced in the storm, the proposed level of support would offer about $400,000 per family.

There is a lot of knashing of political teeth on this set of issues. Most policies limit coverage for things like water and fungus damage. Supplemental coverages may be available and the federal government does a flood policy - whose record is sort of mixed. It has an 85% retention rate - which is very low for the property/casualty industry. But some politicians have tried to claim that they can abrogate the contracts by fiat - simply by redefining the covered exposures after the fact. Along with the many other politicians who have put an oar in on this - that grandstanding is down right silly.

Stuck on Stupid on Photo Ids

Some public policy types are proposing that we require voters to show a photo id to vote. Yet the loons in the ACLU and other occult groups like that suggest that this is akin to policy blasphemy. Let me see, you need a photo id to cash a check or fly on a US carrier or actually, mostly to get into the country (you have to use a passport which is a photo id except for trips to Mexico with a birth certificate). Does that mean the ACLU thinks those things are less important than voting? They seem to be stuck on stupid. But that is not a new place for them.

Greed by any other name

Steve Jobs came out today and called the record labels greedy. He is right. They want to screw up the simple pricing system that iTunes has had - 99¢ per song for some cockamamie multitier pricing system that only an airline could love. The odd thing about their stupid quest is that it will drive people to buy fewer songs from them. Embrace the simple and make lots of dough.

Honoring Service

The new general in New Orleans is a breath of fresh air. He is a bit bombastic for my tastes but maybe with the Mayor and the Governor at his side - that is what is needed. I listened to a press conference he did where he told a reporter that his job was to report the news not to "get stuck on stupid" - General Honore seems to have the right take on the situation down there and the malicious role that some members of the media have. He repeatedly said our job right now is to solve the problems we are dealing with (the new storm) not think about what happened before. BRAVO!

An answer to the malaisathon

Instapundit has a post tonight about an interesting project to suggest to Members of Congress direct ways to cut the pork. The idea is to list projects in your district which can be dropped, at least until the Gulf Coast is back to some level of normalcy. The list is at Truth Laid Bear - the site also has some handy suggestions for searching out pork.

Let's see if the blogosphere can hunt these things out.

A note - California is 49th in the country with about $6 per capita - but that does not mean we should not search out our own bridge to nowhere.

Why can't the media understand both sides of the ledger?

Matt Duffy makes an important comment this morning about the media bias on how to report the story on spending/taxes for hurricane relief (and ultimately the Iraq war). The media is ready to make any comment possible about Bush's resistence to tax increases but are not ready to make the same comment about possibilities of spending cuts. In the case of the Iraq war they decry the effort and wonder how we can pay for it without new taxes. In the case of Katrina, an event mostly outside of mortal control, they simply cajole the President to raise taxes.

As a professor at HBS once said "accounting is about the whereget and the wheregone" - indeed the constant harrangue from most of the media is about the whereget - taxes. Were this emergency in a family, the first thing most families would look at would be the wheregone side of the equation. My wife has complained about the increasing price of gas (a minor emergency) but has she gone out and tried to increase her income to solve the problem of $50 tanks? No, she has begun to use fuel more carefully, has found a carpooling buddy to work and other things. If she can understand that - why can't the media?

Fly Fishing and other unnatural acts

The Big One in Wyoming, originally uploaded by drtaxsacto.

As noted in the earlier post, I have been in Wyoming for the past week beginning to learn how to fly fish. It is something I have been encouraged to do by a couple of friends who are very much into it. On the first day I was there I caught what turned out to be the second biggest fish of the week. But that is really a back story not worth telling. (OK 22 1/2", a twenty minute battle of finesse, yada yada, yada - one of the benefits of technology is that you can now be sure to document your fish stories!)

As noted I was a rookie among the group that I went with, so the rest of the week, I looked and listened. What intrigues me about the sport is its mix of at least three elements - it seems to take some physical skill, some intellectual mastery and a willingness to be in absolutely beautiful surroundings. (The last one is not that tough to take.) A lot of the physical part of the game requires concentration and patience - nothing is rushed. A good many of the moves seem counterintuitive when they are first presented. But by the end of the week, I was beginning to see why skills were done the way they were and even beginning to incorporate the right technique into the delivery. That does not mean I have mastered them but at least I think I see what I am doing wrong and am beginning to have a sense of what it feels like to do it right.

I had the fortune of having a guide (or actually a set of guides) with me on each outing. They really add to the experience. They know where the fish are. They can coach your technique. On Thursday morning I went with one who spent part of the morning showing me a lot about what to look for (and there is a lot). We spent about an hour looking at the water, talking about the life cycle of the bugs that trout eat (which is remarkably short), about water conditions in a river or a stream, about how the water is oxygenated, about how sunlight and temperature affects the interest of the fish to eat, about spawning and a raft of other things.

Of the four guides that I had the opportunity to go with each had a slightly different approach. The guide in this picture is a famous one named Bob Lamm. He is a great coach - very patient. But he is also subtle - he keeps adding new twists in manageable steps. Another had an enthusiasm that was contagious. The morning I went with him, he showed his true love for his profession - although we also talked about his off season where he does something completely different. A third had a slight edge to his style but also imparted a lot of knowledge to the couple of hours I spent with him. The fourth pushed even a bit more but again at the end of the day, I think I progressed.

In the end the four days were a mix of great experiences, good conversation and a couple of times of downright thrill.

Rent seeking for politicians and Malaiseathons for voters

For the past week I have been in Wyoming fishing (more on that later) with a group of people I serve on a corporate board with. This morning a group of us had a discussion about priorities - in government. We disagree pretty strongly about whether the current effort in Iraq is a good policy or whether we should be spending $200 billion of federal money to rebuild in New Orleans and also about whether the push to keep the death tax from reviving is a good idea. But everyone in the group agreed that the current political environment is not serving us well. We spend a lot of time yakking about silly stuff and not much substantive time in thinking about the key issues where government could actually have a positive effect. But when it comes to spending politicians seem to think our taxes are their private accounts to help them get reelected. On that front there was a general malaise bordering on anger in all three of the early morning discussants.

There are opportunities for the President to change the game here. For example, he could suggest that a good part of the financing for the restoration of New Orleans come from the pork in the energy, highway and agriculture bills. (There might well be close to half the total money there if it were done correctly.) What was intriguiging about the President's speech was his adherence to principles that he has suggested elsewhere - home ownership, enterprise zones and the like. But the real test will be whether he can stick to those principles. If the relief effort becomes a clone of the most recent three bills (add some here and add some there on both sides of the aisle) then we get the worst side of both parties. The sum of rent seeking by politicians and the additional malaise by voters is not a healthy combination. In the Wealth of Nations Adam Smith has an analogy that I have always liked about taxes - "pluck the goose when it has feathers" - at some point if they keep making these self serving decisions the goose may well bite back.

NANO, NANO

I was one of the first to purchase an an iPod Nano The size is amazing. The functionality is all you would expect. It combines the ability to have a photo album that you can almost slip in your wallet with tons of tunes. The screen is bright. On a trip this morning I have listened to it from about 6 AM to now and it is still going strong. It is an insanely great product. When I bought mine at the end of the first day it was announced the Apple Store in Sacramento had sold more than four cartons (150 each) out of that store.

Questions of Wonder

The news this weekend had a couple of stories that, IMHO, were incongruous. On the one hand a couple of news outlets carried major stories on how Bush's friends were getting the clean up booty from Katrina. On the other there was a story about the CEO of one of those companies, the Shaw Group, who happens to be the Chair of the Democrat Party in Louisiana. The Louisiana Democratic Party Website lists James Bernhard as its chair and also as the CEO of Shaw. Before one made charges like this wouldn't it be better to do at least a little reporting.

It seems that many of the media are more interested in spreading what seems to be in the streets of New Orleans rather than trying to cover the news. Just how many firms in the nation can handle the size of the jobs that the federal government has designated to help the city recover? Why should everything always be a conspiracy?

The end of a pretty good season

Tonight the Rivercats lost to the Tacoma Raniers for the Pacific Division Championship. Like last night's game - they should have won it. Tonight they had 14 hits but only were able to generate 2 runs. Tacoma scored 5 on eight hits. They had plenty of chances, like they did last night. But they just could not finish the job. For this series every game was won by the away team. We went eleven innings tonight and ten last night - so we certainly got our money's worth. Gone were some of the power hitters of last year's team.

This was a fun season nonetheless. Our section, 107, developed a camaraderie that made the games more interesting. There are a couple in the group that really know the ins and outs of baseball and then the rest of us that simply enjoy the relaxing nature of the game. As you could see from the earlier posts there were several funny times. A couple of games we woulda, coulda, shoulda. There were some disappointing seasons and also some that really shined.

Tacoma goes on to play Nashville for the Championship and we go back to a more normal life - no baseball for several months but Opera next weekend (Barber of Seville) and lots of travel in the fall. Even a chance for the section to get together in October.

We will never forget

10 Innings but one game left

Tonight's game with the Tacoma Raniers was an uneven one. They had some monumental defensive plays - in the 5th and 7th - unbelievable catches. We had scoring opportunities in the 2,3,4,5,6,7 and were not able to capitalize on them. In each of the first four games of the series the home team lost. Garcia was in only for a short time tonight and did not look as sharp as he had in the two previous appearances in Tacoma. Mabeus showed up tonight. They offered up seven pitchers. But now we come down to the key game of the season - if we win we go on to the PCL championship against either Nashville or Oklahoma. If we lose - we are done for the season.

A respite

Here is a shot from Mexico. I like it a lot.

Where's Carly

CNET posted today that Carly Fiorinna, still living on her fat severence for running HP into the ground has signed on to Revolution Health Group's board. She is a part of an august group that includes Steve Case - the wizard who combined AOL and Time Warner only to have the company fleeced from him (all the while destroying shareholder equity) and Franklin Raines who left Fannie Mae after some substantial criticism about accounting manipulations. Sounds like a good group.

There are some good people on the board but with these three, the prospects for growth don't seem rosy.

2-0 in two good games

The Rivercats started the Pacific Conference championship series in both games behind. But in each game they went on to win and are now two games up on a five game series. In both games Jairo Garcia pitched some pretty good innings. So did Flores and even Mabeus.

Now on to Sacramento for game three. The Nashville and Oklahoma teams have split the first two.

An odd footnote

The Mudville Gazette has an interesting post this morning they said -

In a bold and potentially risky move, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin crossed party lines Monday to endorse Republican Bobby Jindal, who is locked in a tight governor's race with Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco, the Democratic standard bearer in the Nov. 15 runoff.
<...>
In recent days, Nagin said he faced considerable pressure from the state Democratic power structure to go with Blanco, citing U.S. Sens. John Breaux and Mary Landrieu in particular.
Without naming names, Nagin said Blanco supporters attached words like "risk" and "consequences" and "repercussions" to the prospect of his backing Jindal.

"They talked about this not being in the best interests of the city of New Orleans and that they would let people know that," Nagin said.

Using what he described as the "hip hop vernacular" favored by his teenage sons, Nagin hinted that Blanco's backers issued threats, indicating that "if we get in we're going to basically ice you out."

Politics as underware

The recent events in the Gulf Coast have reminded me how much politics are like underware. There are some obvious and base analogies here but I am thinking at a higher plane.

Underware is something we all need. Ditto for politics. In a democracy, politicians are also a necessary part of the mix. Some people think they can get along without underware - but they like those who think we can get along without politics are fundamentally mistaken. But unlike how some people think about underware, it is normally not a dominant part of our clothing. Politics can be. But I cannot think of many times when it should be.

Hayek talked about the fundamental benefits of market order in society. He said that the real benefit of any efficient system is the reduction of transaction costs. We don't think about the color of one's underware. Nor should we have to think about whether the hot dog we are purchasing is safe or not. In both cases there are many ways to get the benefit but the ultimate benefit of great politics is a reduction in costs. Conversely, if we make the wrong choices in either underware or politics the costs rise significantly. There are times when we think about underware and times when we do not (mostly the latter), occasionally the political system becomes too important for itself - it tends to ride up - and we are the losers for that. Either issues do not get solved or they get over hyped or both.

Underware gets pretty funky if you wear it too long. So do politicians. The errors of rent seeking politicians that Anne Kreuger and others have written so clearly about become more pronounced when the political class is too well ensconced in their jobs. The recent energy bill and its attendant long list of set asides of various causes is a good suggestion that the current majority in congress may have been there too long. We don't need three undershirts at once- only one.

But there may also be another conclusion here. It is unclear whether if the minority party were to go back into power that it would do things significantly differently. Is our attention to politics so pronounced that we look to it first to solve our problems? Would the change into majority status simply pay off a different group of pleaders?

This little mind experiment made me think about many recent issues, where the political class overstepped its function - by either claiming too much expertise (the Schaivo case comes to mind), or being indolent (think the mayor of NO and the Louisana governor) or by being too trendy (many examples) or just plain stupid. (many more examples). But the average American, were he to be able to think about politics like underware, might be a lot better off. Come to think of it, so would our political system.

Comparing Disaster Relief in Miss and LA

There is a great post at Chrenkoff which explains in detail the differences I mentioned yesterday between Mississippi and Louisiana in their response to the hurricane. It puts the blovating that Mayor Nagin and others have done in perspective.

The Blame Game and Katrina

I was in Los Angeles today for a funeral of a good friend's wife. But before I went over I had the opportunity to have breakfast with my daughter and her boyfriend. I was asked what I thought about the response to Hurricane Katrina. I really had not crystalized my thoughts before then. I gave a couple of answers but as I thought about it today I came up with a set of responses that are a bit better thought out.

#1 - Coming home from the airport tonight I listened to Air America and one of their people (named Laura something) who said the results in Louisana were the result of conservatives making government out to be the problem. That is nonsense. The City of New Orleans has three boats for its police department - three. In a city that is underwater. The idiot who is mayor should be indicted for incompetence. He knew the storm was coming and yet he dilly dallied until after. Ditto for the Governor. Why did they not use the busses parked in the lot and visible on Google maps? Why did they not deploy the marines who are in the Port of New Orleans? Government's ability to respond to major emergencies is not very good. In the Northridge earthquake, Californians got back because FEMA was pretty good but more importantly, the Governor (Pete Wilson) cut through the normal BS and let a lot of contracts for repair with private companies. On the Air America site - the first thing you see is FEMA approved relief agencies - as if FEMA would have any competency in judging who could do well. There is a role for government but Laura and her ilk think it is primary - it may not be.

#2 - This morning my daughter's friend thought there should be some equity assistance - we are all in this together. I gave him a response which was not entirely reflective of my beliefs. Indeed we are all in this together. But we should not be forced to bear the responsibility for stupidity. A private insurer who had a house built in a storm zone might insure a place once but would raise rates for people who rebuilt in the same area - when storms or other perils were present. From the picture we get now neither the federal or state governments were sufficiently cognizant of their role in maintaining and improving the levees that keep New Orleans from the soup. The other consideration I think we need to work with here is who should provide the equity assistance - in my mind the first role of equity in society should be the private sector through charity. Government charity is not often very well done. But there are times when government can do things best. It should not be an either or - but it seems to me that a lot of people view government in the first role here and that may not be appropriate.

#3 - The media does not seem to recognize some things that are apparent to me. First, the political leadership in Mississippi and Alabama seem a lot better prepared than in Louisana - all three places suffered from a Category 5 hurricane but only Louisiana got hit (after the storm) with the massive break in the levee. Second, the federal government seems a bit slow in its response - the Governor of New Mexico (a democrat) offered assistance in advance of the storm - but the feds had to get their paperwork right. That delay is silly and inexcusable.

#4 - I am bothered that some are trying to make this into a political situation. Jesse Jackson is nuts - this is not about race. The mayor is a bigot and an idiot. This is not about global warming - I heard a national forecaster explain that hurricanes come in multi-decadal cycles and we just happen to be in a high cycle. The dems have jumped on Bush for this - and while some of that might be justified - it may not work in the way that they want it to. There are plenty of guard troops so this is not an Iraq thing. But the federal officials were a bit slow in ramping up - then so were the state people.

#5 - Where are the recovery models? New Orleans is an amusement park for sick people. It was, even before the flood (not the 1927 but this one) a city in decline. Compared to a hundred years ago, it is a wreck economically. It should be an economic powerhouse. But it is a ten week a year festival and then a couple of seedy conventions. At one time the city was a financial center of the South - it could be again with some vision. But the legacy of Louisiana politics will hold the city down. In 1906 San Francisco suffered a similar catastrophe - yet in a very short period of time it changed itself from a baudyhouse to a financial center of the West. How did they do that? With a lot of energy. With a great governor in Sacramento (Governor Pardee ran the relief effort from Sacramento) and with some civic energy. It is pretty clear that if New Orleans thinks that FEMA will serve all those functions that the city will continue on a slow death. Restaurants, Mardi Gras and Casinos and the Superbowl do not a city make.

#6 "There is always a little heaven in a disaster zone" - a quote from Woodstock. But in this case it is true. For the last couple of days I have watched colleges across the country think about how to accommodate the displaced students from the universities in New Orleans. Small colleges have made big offers. The higher education community in Washington is putting together a Craig's list equivalent to match students and institutions. A couple of religious denominations have begun an adopt a parish drive - one parish helping another. Radio stations in our area have done food, money and blood drives. Schools have done the same. The religious community of Houston is figuring out how to raise $9 million to feed the refugees in their city for a couple of months. That level of community - which is so often forgotten in our current times - is really inspiring.

The Season in Two Games

This was the last home stand for the Rivercats. If they play like they did the last two nights for the playoffs they will do just fine. They lost a bunch of people today to the show - Matt Watson - who deserved to be up there. Cruz - who whined his way back and probably deserved to be there. Freddie Bynum. They have four more games in the regular season - against Tacoma and then to the playoffs probably against Tacoma - but if the Cats do well - against Salt Lake. The Stingers have been on a tear winning their last five games. But before that they had lost five. We are on a 7-3 for the last 10 games.

This has been a pretty good season.

Last night I bought Ron Flores' Jersey - he is a good reliever and deserves to be back up. This was a fund raiser for Independence Field. Ron was pretty consistent this season. He has pitched 60 innings and allowed 45 hits. His ERA is a scootch over Cruz.

Hey Jude

On Monday Jude Wanniski died. Most papers did not cover that. Winniski headed a firm called Polyconomics. Oddly, one of the places that covered his passing was Al Jazeera. Wanniski published the Way the World Works when I was in the middle of my doctoral program. It was a fun volume. He talked about politics in terms of choosing wine - each of us thinks our intelligence on almost anything is better than the group we are with. But he also talked about the fundamentally destructive effects of imposing confiscatory tax rates. He commented that only when capital is maximized can welfare be maximized (he discussed both physical and intellectual capital). Capital, when treated correctly, is not used up in consumption. It becomes the gift that keeps on giving. His discussion of the behavior of crowds anticipated the recent book by James Surowiecki. He called himself a political economist because he understood inherently the linkages of politics and economics.

But there was another side of this guy (*from UCLA by the way). He did not lack in confidence, either in himself or in the wisdom of common decisions. In the second instance that confidence was well placed. In the first however, at times his speech or thoughts far exceeded his grasp. Even with that overstep his contributions to the notions of the effects of tax rates on behavior and the wisdom of the general population should not be forgotten.

Riverflats redux

Tonight's game was flat. They've won their division. Some are thinking about getting called up. Others are thinking ahead. But tonight's game was like a lot of the season. A couple of new people have been called up and they might offer some promise.
But they we just plain flat. 7-1 in a quick game. (flat game)

In between all the (lack of) excitement came the car wash lie again - same license plate. All of our section is now aware of the repetitive use of the same license number and a different car. Shame.

Getting a Cluetrain on Politics

The Cluetrain Manifesto is an odd site. Writtten a couple of years ago by a bunch of techies - it lays out 95 theses about markets. It fundamentally attacks two things - manufactured markets and manufactured communications. Companies that understand how to communicate not from a manual learned at some "tony conference" will survive. There is a lot of hubris in the manifesto - the revealed word could have been done in a lot fewer premises - but the fundamental truth is there. The reality for markets is that those that get it will do well - those that do not will not.

The same could be true for politicians. In the California environment our last two governors have not gotten that simple fact. When a politician begins an earnest conversation with the voters - they listen and evaluate. They often will respond even when they perceive that the ideas espoused by the person are not their own. But when politicians speak in media bites - and look to the silliness of target communications, they ultimately are seen through by the public. What people want in their politicians is an understanding of a person's views and ideas. They realize that one person or even one administration will not have all the right ideas. But they do not want sound bites or spin.

But what have the media produced - exactly that. And the politicians seeing the power of that medium flock to it like lemmings. And we continue to be skeptical. When a politician understands that, they will be effective.

Clinch and now the test begins

The Rivercats looked (sounded) great tonight. They beat the Grizzlies to wrap up the Southern Division but now they take on the Grizzlies for four more and then Tacoma and then Tacoma (most likely in the playoffs). They will have to get a bit sharper to win the PCL again - but who knows?

If they play like they did tonight - they will.

James Madison in Iraq

What is all this nonsense about a deadline for forming a constitution in Iraq? Think back to our own process. The framers were able to meet in secret and think out some basic ideas. They did operate under the glare of a Philadelphia summer without air conditioning but not with the kliegs of tragedy TV.

From what I read the process in Iraq is not conforming to our established timetable but the people involved are making some very sensible decisions. For example, religion is going to play a part in the new state but it will not be the final control as it is in Iran or other places in the Middle East. Religious toleration is going to be the rule. A modified federalism is going to be the plan of organization - not a bad way to go for a country with the kinds of diversity in Iraq. Federalism involves two parts a plan and an execution and so we will have to wait a while to see what happens - but from my view the first plan looks pretty realistic - we will simply have to wait a while to see if the plan is realized when it is carried out.

We should cut these people some slack. From all indications they are coming up with pretty good ideas - they will not be the US but then their history and ours are not the same.

Reform and Dodges

I was at lunch today with two friends who are college presidents. They asked about the current state of our Governor. His polls recently have been dropping. I cautioned them to not believe in the full measure of polls. The only thing lower than the Governor's present depths is that of the Legislature. But we came back to a question that should be on the minds of all Califonians. How do we revamp the system?

Surprisingly, my friends, both of whom are to the left of me, probably agree on the range of issues facing the state. We may or may not agree about the solutions but the definitions of problems is in pretty clear vision. For example, most Californians think the public schools are not in very good shape (or could be better); most would also agree that the current system of drawing districts is flawed; most would argue that the current system of taxation in the state is screwy; same thing for the range of governance options. There are undoubtedly a number of other issues that we would agree on - that need to be fixed.

If you know something about the history of the state we have a tradition of having a group of non-politicians come in an make changes that are ultimately adopted by the state. The progressives (when the word did not mean liberals)at the turn of the 20th century adopted a series of reforms that made sense when they were adopted. The changes the state established in the tax system in the 30s was another example of the process working. The Master Plan process for higher education in the 40s and 50s and 60s is also a good example. But recent attempts at reform have been mostly silly. We establish a commission they come up with pat or stylized issues that the interest groups then defeat and we continue to ad hoc issues through the initiative process.

I am not sure how we get out of that box. In earlier times it was pretty simple to corral the right people in a non-public setting to come up with some ideas. That is not possible nor should it be. But does that mean we should simply allow the state to muddle along? Lindblom notwithstanding I think not. But I am not quite sure how we escape the theater of politics on these important issues.

3 to Go

The Rivercats moved their magic number to 3 tonight with a win against the Fresno Grizzlies. They seem to do poorly on travel days - but on the second day of a series seem to do well. 9 games up - 3 more in Fresno, 4 in Sacramento and 4 in Tacoma. Things are looking a lot better. We still only have two guys over .300 but a couple of moving up close. So things are looking up.

Intelligent Design and Stephen Coyne

When I was about 14, I first encountered "Inherit the Wind" - at that point in my life I thought the play was a class argument for rationality. The William Jennings Bryan character was so well drawn that it was hard to not take him (and his cause) as a buffoon's. It was pretty hard to take seriously the notion that the world was created X number of days (all 24 hours) or that our history was exactly X thousand years. For about 2 years I read everything I could on Darrow. I became interested in Darrow's other cases. My brother worked on the beach at Marina del Ray and Darrow's son was a frequent visitor on that beach. That contact made me learn about the Scopes Trial;about Big Bill Haywood and the Wobblies; about Sacco and Vanzetti (even though Darrow was only peripherally involved); about Leopold and Loeb. For several years I thought I wanted to be a lawyer.

But then I went to Washington and met George Gilder. George and I were members of something called the Ripon Society - as it turned out the group (especially the Washington Chapter - where I was the president) was called a liberal GOP group - but if you look at the people I was in the club with - some turned to become liberal democrats, some conservatives, some libertarians. What bound us together then was ideas.

George went on to do some powerful writing. He did one of the first bibles of supply side theory. He then did a couple of books on technology which were both informative and wacky. He ran into Carver Mead at Caltech and wrote a lot about technologies to come. He did a technology newsletter that was often wacky and off base but he was also the first person I read who understood the power of networks (Gilder's law about bandwidth - which was derivative of Moore's law was, if anything, understated.) well before most people could spell WWW or QQQ.

George went on to develop the Discovery Institute - it is a mix of technology and some of his earlier interests - with some of his old colleagues - Richard Rahn (who thankfully introduced me to the Austrian economists more than 30 years ago) is an adjunct of the group. And they are big into intelligent design.

The New Republic did an article in August by a guy named Stephen Coyne. I am not sure about Darwin. Nor am I sure about theology. I am convinced that there is plenty of evidence of a creator. But, like Darrow's character in the play (Henry Drummond) I am respectful enough of my own ignorance (and in this area I have only sketched the tops of the trees) that I become wary of someone who makes absolute statements.

Indeed, those in the theological side of the debate who make exact statements look as silly as Matthew Harrison Brady did in the play. But there are gaps, well beyond the gaps in the record (Coyne seems to state that were it not for some animals and plants not dying in sedimentary material we would have had all the answers to our questions.) that should allow us to have a rational discussion about what we do not know. At the same time, the best scientists are more than willing to admit that a good part of scientific inquiry is based on an initial premise of faith. So Coyne's argument, which is an unabashed attempt to refute the intelligent design people of all stripes, made me think that there might be some continuing limitations on Darwin.

I wonder what the biological line of the puffer fish is. I also wonder whether Coyne can be traced to it.

Benedict XVI and style

The limited news reports about the Pope's visit to Germany and World Youth Day - seem to to have missed a lot. Almost all of the coverage seems to have compared his style to JPII. The journalists seemed almost surpised that he is different, not the same kind of media star. That was evident in the way he spoke to the 1,000,000+ people at the mass. But what struck me was the way his remarks keyed on important issues that we all face.

Two comments were particularly cogent for me. The first on freedom - where he recognized the key difference between freedom and license - ``Freedom is not simply about enjoying life in total autonomy, but rather about living by a measure of truth and goodness,'' he said. ``This takes place so that we ourselves can truly become true and good.'' Madison and Adam Smith drew those same kinds of boundaries in their writings.

The second related to fashion in religion - a lot of what passes for theology today is comfortable. One passage raised some questions about the explosion of new religious attitudes/beliefs - "I have no wish to discredit all the manifestations of this phenomenon. There may be sincere joy in the discovery," he said. "Yet, if it is pushed too far, religion becomes almost a consumer product. People choose what they like, and some are even able to make a profit from it." Ultimately religious belief like freedom involves obligations.

The Long Tail in Politics

Arnold Kling is an economist who writes for an economics blog that has some very interesting stuff. In today's post (which was republished at Tech central he writes about the long tail in politics.

I first understood the idea of a long tail in a site called Change This! Change This!- that is a series of manifestos on a wide range of subjects. Some a very silly, others are quite substantive. The notion of the long tail came about when people started to understand that digital copies and distribution systems began to create after markets for related products. For example, assume that when Lance Armstrong rode to his seventh Tour de France win, people went to Amazon to get books about a) the Tour de France, b) Lance, c) Cancer survivors, d) French bicycles. The marketing model for Amazon will suggest related products - so in addition to selling books or memorabilia in one of those areas, the system might also discover an obscure book by another author from perhaps 1975, that covers the same subject. The marketing and production costs for the earlier (and possibly out of copyright material) are close to zero. So the net sale on 20 or 100 copies of the work is almost pure profit. That happens in any product that can be digitized.

Kling makes the argument that there is also a long tail for people in politics who do not consider themselves affiliated with any specific brand of politics. Those could be either independents or various other flavors of thinkers who do not feel attracted to the current brands of politics. Because politicians understand that they cannot hold on to these voters they move into some interesting behaviors. First, they add pork and lots of it. Second, they go more heavily into theatrical politics (Cindy Sheehan, Terry Schaivo, etc.) Third, because they cannot be sure of who they are talking to they actually isolate themselves from the general voter. They spend a lot of time with friends - in carefully constructed situations and not much time in places where they are not sure of the crowd. But Kling argues that ultimately people are less and less attracted to the two party system and thus become part of the long tail.

His suggestion is that we could evolve into "virtual federalism" a renewed argument for a Tiebout like environment where people begin to pick and choose what parts of the system they want to deal with. I am not sure his argument is correct. Why would politicians want to change a system that fundamentally works to their advantage. The combination of pork, coupled with theater and distance makes politics a lot less risky. Isn't that just another good example of classic rent seeking?

Kling's article deserves a lot of thought and comment.

Debra Johns versus Cindy Sheehan

One wonders how the media chooses stories. This morning on Laura Ingram a good example of that was presented. On the one hand - Cindy Sheehan - this "gold star mother" has gotten her fifteen minutes of fame and then some. She is increasingly irrational. One reporter over the weekend asked her how many actual other gold star parents were supporting her in Carwford, Texas. The answer = "about 6." Then she was asked how many other military families (parents of kids in the military) were in Crawford - again the answer was 6.

Laura presented another California mother - not one who has lost a son but one who has a son who joined the Marines after 9/11 and has served two tours in Iraq. Her name is Debra Johns. She commented that she has been contacted by "more than 400 gold star families" in her quest to present the other side. She is doing a caravan to Crawford - but one wonders who will cover it.

The media coverage on Iraq has, for the most part, been almost exclusively negative. They have over-stated the impact of negative stories (in Iraq and in this country). They have ignored side stories that disprove their point. They have highlighted polls that show a declining level of support for our efforts there.

Any war divides. One need only look at the coverage and responses during the Civil War or WWI or WWII to understand that democracies do not have a stomach for war (that is a good thing). But with 24/7 news coverage that propensity is exacerbated. A better task for the media would be to do what Fox says it does - We report, you decide. But no one seems to care about that very important mission.

The Limits of Moral Outrage

You've got to love Kim Gandy, the president of the National Organization for Women. As part of the reams of papers that were released for perusal as a part of the confirmation process for Judge Roberts was a memorandum drafted by him explaining why it was appropriate to have a Reagan administration official accept an award commending her for moving from being a housewife to a lawyer. In the memorandum Roberts commented - "Some might question whether encouraging homemakers to become lawyers contributes to the common good, but I suppose that is for the judges to decide." Ms. Gandy, got on her moral high horse (most probably on the back end) to scold him as a "neanderthal" presumably because she read into his remarks that women should stay in the kitchen. Ms. Gandy should get a life.

Non Introspective Paranoia

Whenever I get bored I turn in to Al Franken on Air America, thereby increasing his listenership by about 5% but hearing what the left is chattering about. This morning I got to hear a professor from Yale spout about a new book he is about to have published that sounds absolutely odd.

Jacob Hacker (from looking at his home page) is concerned about public policy. He is also worried about the "privitization of risk." He went on this morning about how the switch from defined benefit retirement plans to §401 (k) plans (shudder) moved American employees into a range of unprecedented uncertainty. What bothered me about his comments were a number of things. First, is his perception that allowing individuals more control over their lives (with the attendant increase in responsibility) a bad thing. Just how much additional security is provided by "experts" like him? Second, is the perception of additional security actually real when the experts run the show?

In my mind, most Americans want the additional flexibility that §401ks and other types of empowerment offers. Look at the consistent responses from surveys about the level of confidence in programs like Social Security. Although the President's plan to partially privitize Social Security seems to have failed, the consistent response by the vast majority of people under 50 is that Social Security is a ponzi scheme that will take an increasing percentage of wealth to administer, if not fixed.

Hacker and Franken patted each other down to suggest that all this uncertainty is something that is terrifying to individuals and that the changes have made American workers worse off. What nonsense. First, if you look at any income series - that includes total compensation (fringes) - wages in this country have not been flat at all. But as one would expect, as tax rates become too high and fringes become less taxed - employers have shifted their dough into fringes. Second, both of these yahoos seem to think that (at least if there is a democratic administration in place) the government can promise greater security than individual choices. Didn't they read about the fall of the Soviet Union and its wonderful long range plans? Do they really believe that government is better able to discern needs than individuals? Have they never read any Hayek?

Ultimately, any society needs to make welfare tradeoffs for at least some of the people who make wrong choices. But look at the projected returns that Social Security will offer people in Hacker's generation versus a passbook savings account. If that offer were made by a financial institution - government laws would probably be after them for false advertising.

There are some good examples of irresponsible actions in private pension plans. But they pale in comparison to the long term assumptions for Social Security. We have a choice we can fix the problems or inflate out of them or lower benefits in some other way. Hacker did a rough calculation about the required fund to offer a very modest pension. He suggested that you need about $150,000 in capital for a retirement payment of about a $1000 per month. In reality, the best guide is about $50,000 per year in income off each $1 million in resources. But compare that to the tax bite of social security versus the projected benefits.

Fracker and Hanken then went on to argue that a) health care is best when provided by the government and it was "odd" that the US did not follow other countries in offering citizens a public program. At the same time Hacker advanced the thesis that the GOP has a strange hold on the political system which enhances their advantage.

This is not to say that talk radio on the right is much better - although it is certainly more funny than the talk on Air America. For the last week all of the talk shows have been yacking about Cindy Sheehan. Ms. Sheehan is a pathetic figure. She should certainly be allowed to express and opinion on the president. But she has been so caught up in her own schtick that one wonders if anything but continued attention would satisfy her. It is disappointing that a country such as ours cannot have a better and sustained level of dialogue.

In 1998 my wife and I went to Ireland - there we heard an interesting brand of talk radio. People actually had differing points of view. They actually considered each other's arguments. It would be a wonder if the US could copy that format.

The State of Scholarly Communication

One of the constant natters in academe is who is on first (no contractions here!). There is continual commentary at the undergraduate level about how lousy this or that rating system is. US News in all its' iterations comes in for some well deserved criticism.

The ranking of undergraduate programs involves many factors. Part of the decision on undergraduate programs is based on perceived prestige. But a lot of it depends on intangibles - location, ambience, etc. The US News rankings or the other ratings services try to capture those factors however imperfectly. Having worked with independent colleges for more than 30 years, I can't tell you how many times I have heard a president comment "The US News rankings are a bunch of baloney" and then bring his admission staff together when they don't get ranked somewhere.

But at the graduate level the ranking systems might be a bit less complex. Ultimately, graduate programs devolve down to the where get and where gone factors. Do other faculty members use the scholarly output of a graduate program in their own teaching and research? Ultimately, scholars are supposed to be a community that trades ideas - so looking at the market for ideas is pretty sound. The other side of the equation is what happens to the graduates - where do they get placed? For a lot of reasons many academics discount that factor.

So a couple of days ago at Tax Prof Blog a discussion got started about using the Social Science Research Network as an indicator of quality. Under the proposal which was originally made in an article in the Indiana Law Journal, schools could be ranked by citations in the SSRN. The SSRN is an insanely great tool. It is an electronic resource for scholars to vet their papers with colleagues anywhere in the world. It is an easily searchable database that serious scholars and even policy wonks can use for a very modest charge to think about issues. In today's TPB there are some responses to the idea.

One other comment, I discovered the TPB quite by accident. But it is a really good resource. It is a mix of three things - all of which are useful. First, it presents a pretty wide range of scholarly work in the tax area in short abstracts but with great links. Second, it presents some fairly frequent links to policy discussions (and as importantly links to their presentations or papers) such as the current commision on tax reform. Third, it presents profiles of individuals who are in the field and their scholarly work. In addition, the site( when you are not just rushing through the RSS summaries) has a bunch of additional resources. It is a bit weighted to law schools - afterall tax systems are made up of laws - so that is not unexpected - but it is an excellent resource for even people, like me, who did doctoral work in the area, remains interested in the field but are not in any way a scholar in the field. Paul Caron, who is at the University of Cincinnati, is the inspiration behind this project and he deserves a real vote of thanks.

Revival!!!!

In the last four games of the Rivercats, they have not been very adept at generating hits. But in the second of a series with Tuscon, they began to go forward a bit. I turned on the game as I was driving home. They started the third with a 5 run lead. But woe the Sidewinders picked up 5 in their half. The Cats then went down a few innings later only to come back in the seventh to tie it up. Then they added two in the eighth and six in the ninth. By the end of the ninth the Sidewinders actually actuated a position player who had only had one other pitching experience in baseball. He,Corey Myers, like all of his predecessors, got pounded. The action in the top of the ninth was wonderful and should be memorialized.
Sacramento River Cats - Top of the 9th
Pitcher Change: Mike Koplove replaces Kerry Ligtenberg.
Shawn Garrett lines out to pitcher Mike Koplove.
Charles Thomas walks.
With Tom Gregorio batting, Charles Thomas steals (14) 2nd base.
Tom Gregorio singles on a ground ball to center fielder Carlos Quentin. Charles Thomas scores.
Freddie Bynum singles on a ground ball to right fielder Josh Kroeger. Tom Gregorio to 2nd.
Jermaine Clark singles on a ground ball to center fielder Carlos Quentin. Tom Gregorio to 3rd. Freddie Bynum to 2nd.
Jack Cust strikes out swinging.
Brant Colamarino walks. Tom Gregorio scores. Freddie Bynum to 3rd. Jermaine Clark to 2nd.
Andrew Beattie walks. Freddie Bynum scores. Jermaine Clark to 3rd. Brant Colamarino to 2nd.
Pitcher Change: Corey Myers replaces Mike Koplove.
Mike Rouse singles on a line drive to center fielder Carlos Quentin. Jermaine Clark scores. Brant Colamarino scores. Andrew Beattie to 2nd.
Shawn Garrett doubles (20) on a line drive to center fielder Carlos Quentin. Andrew Beattie scores. Mike Rouse to 3rd.
Charles Thomas pops out to second baseman Keoni De Renne.

Now they go back to 9 games up. To give you an idea about this kind of win. In the last three games the Cats played they scored 5 runs total off 16 hits, tonight they scored 16 runs off 17 hits. In the last 10 games they have scored a total of 49 runs off 84 hits. As I was listening to this game I went back for the last ten games and it is not as bleak as my impression had been from the last three games (where they were flat). For four out of ten of those games they had double digit hits. Doskow's review of the game was pure fun!

This was a game that really lived up to the slogan - Everybody plays!

Riverflats

Last night the Rivercats lost a game to the Sidewinders - I think it was their seventh shut out - 6-0. They have (after last night) - 20 games left and are 8 games up. If they play like they have in the last couple of games losing the lead is not out of the realm of possibility. The math here is pretty simple. The magic number is 13. (Combination of Sidewinder losses or Rivercats wins.) For the Sidewinders to pull this one out the Rivercats need to drop below .500 and they need to win 20 of 21 (they did one of those last night). Mabeus was in a new stage last night where is was a Maybesort of - he went three innings with 2 hits but by the time he got up the game was pretty much out of it. The whole team seemed flat. Same thing for Monday night. In the 12 game homestand they only managed a split. Their hitting has fallen off pretty badly. Our best hitter in the starting lineup is batting .294 (Beattie) with a combined batting average of .275. That is a stark contrast from a couple of weeks ago when they had several over .300.

Their remaining schedule works like this - 3 more against the Sidewinders, then 4 against the Stingers of Salt Lake, Then four in Fresno, four against Fresno here and then finishing out in Tacoma. Tacoma and Salt Lake are currently tied in their division. Fresno is out of it but just the sheer number of games against them is not a good sign. This could be a thrilling end to the season. This is the time when they need to regroup.

Busted

One of the promotions in the Rivercats is the dirtiest car in the lot. Saturday night is was a Nissan with the license plate of 5JTX981. But low and behold tonight it was a BMW with the license plate of 5JTX981. Coincidence? I think not.

Boo Hoo the market is complex

The New York Times, that increasingly less relevant paper in the east, did a story this morning whose main point was that health consumers are overwhelmed by the amount of information available today. This is a fairly consistent mantra for the NYT and for many other liberal screed locations. In a great quote they talk about a patient overwhelmed by her choices on treatment options that could either cure her or kill her. "I'm not a doctor!" she shouted. "I'm a criminal defense lawyer! How am I supposed to know?"

The NYT weltschmerzing is conditioned on two points - both of which are false - but still very real. The first is an assumption about expertise. One could do a long intellectual history about the base of this from the enlightenment but it is conditioned on the notion that all things are ultimately discoverable and more importantly that individuals can develop a clear understanding in an area that will be naturally superior to anything that a mere mortal can achieve. Indeed, as we developed knoweldge over the past several centuries and more importantly as we divided knowledge into discreet "disciplines" that process of elaboration became more and more prominent. But with our growing bodies of knowledge we forgot to think about common sense. Hayek talked about the importance of the knowledge of time and place (that some individuals possessed unique knowledge based on their experiences) but the assumption of communities like the Times is that the knowledge of time and place is not important. Were their dismissal of the knowledge of time and place the only flaw it would be troubling but then they assume that complexity of choices is troubling. That leads to the second false premise.

Namely, the Nanny State. If you posess absolute certainty about the truth then you want to impose that truth on others. And as important, if the market produces many choices people will be overwhelmed and expertise can step in and simplify. For example, before telephone deregulation we had one choice (albeit more expensive and less consumer oriented) but it was reliable. Before deregulation we had fewer airlines that were more expensive but it was simpler. Let the experts control the decisions and they will give you the "right" answers. Think Soviet agriculture or French culture.

One of the base conflicts in modern society was explained by Charles Lindblom in a book he wrote about politics and markets about 25 years ago. Lindblom suggested that one group in society is very optimistic about intellectual capacity but simultaneously believes that the non-elites in society cannot understand the complexities of the world. The other is skeptical of the capacity of any individual to understand the complexity of the world. The first group assumes that the right people (those with the knowledge) will find their way to the top of the heap and benefit us all. The second assumes that even though we are incompetent as individuals to see the whole picture that the combined weight of our decisions will actually come closest to satisfying individual needs and aspirations. That argument was improved upon in James Surowiecki's book The Wisdom of Crowds. In the end we probably benefit more from the second view.

Sure patients have a tough time negotiating the complexities of modern medicine. But so do doctors. And would anyone reasonably chose to go back to where doctors assumed control of our lives? I for one certainly would not.

One extra inning too many

Fresno won tonight in 10 by one run. Throughout the game the Rivercats valiantly tried to lose and in the end they did. Mabeus was in his Maybe NO version and Jairo started out with six straight balls. We did not deserve to win this game. One funny comment. On Sundays the Cats have had a series of Christian rock concerts and tonight was some guy that seemed to have brought them in. One of our group commented that with the crowd we had tonight we could either pray for a win or send in the lions.

For the rest of the regular season we will also have to contend with the eventual shifts that are natural in AAA. Matt Watson got called up and missed this game - but it is unclear how long he will be up. There is the tension that he deserves the move but we need his bat and fielding skills.

13 Innings of Wonderment

Last night the Rivercats were in the second of a four day series with the Fresno Grizzlies. They eeked out a victory on Friday night after starting with a huge lead. And tonight they also struck first. Cruz looked well for about six innings - half a dozen strikeouts. But then things started to deteriorate. The Grizzlies mounted a 4-2 lead and then moved it up to 5-2. Tony D brought in Brett Reames who looked pretty good - he also got six strikeouts. And the game was tied up before the end of the ninth. But then we got into a long game - John Baker ultimately hit a 2 run home run (Charles Thomas had gotten on in the bottom of the 13th with a single) which ended the game.

It was cold for August. So cold that in the middle of the game the fan store was crammed with people buying jackets and other things to keep warm. I think they sold out of the All Star blankets ($32). I got into line - because I was cold too - and while in line asked the guy in front of me to tell me whether I had a) gotten the right size for the warm-up shirt I was purchasing and b) what was the price. He replied I had indeed chosen a large and that the price was $275 - it was pure silk. I gasped - and he said "It is really only $60 but I wanted to remind you to bring your glasses." What a good sense of humor.

In our section there was a large group of people from Fresno including a kid who had made up a group of handlettered signs. They left in the bottom of the 12th. I hope they notice the Rivercats fan in every one of their pictures with the new warm up shirt - actually quite a handsome fellow.

Intellectual Recycling

In a post this morning Sacramento Bee reporter Dan Weintraub gives a review of the new Jeremy Rifkin's newest screed - The European Dream: How Europe's Vision of the Future Is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream. Dan's conclusion is that Rifkin seems to recycle some of his previous ideas and ignore mounds of evidence about the success or failure of the European experiment. He (Rifkin) thinks that declining population and lousy productivity and increasingly fractious politics and abdication of leadership is a good thing when compared to the evil empire of the US. But if Rifkin even bothered to look at the data of almost any indicator comparing the US and the EU he would find that the US has it up on the EU.

Many parts of the intelligensia have hit a roadblock in their thinking. They keep recycling bad ideas - in essence they are like what economists are criticized for - building a model and trying to fit a reality to the model. That is not just with the lefties like Rifkin - Pat Buchanan and some of his ilk are just as guilty. Wouldn't it be more interesting if we got people to do some more analysis before they wrote these tomes?

Cindy Sheehan

For the past couple of days the media has played up the story of a Vacaville woman who met the President soon after her son died and then has changed her mind and now spouts rhetoric about how lost the cause is in Iraq. I ran across an alternative view today on a site calledIraq the Model 8/12/05. In his simple comments he explains why we should be willing to help the Iraquis. Ms. Sheehan won't read it but others should.

8 more games at home

Tonight was the first of four games with Fresno that would then be followed by a couple of weeks on the road (also some with Fresno) and then for the final four home games with, you guessed it, Fresno.

They went out early with a total of six runs only to error it back to a 6-5 game which they went on to win. Mabeus was in the Maybe yes mode tonight and Jairo was ok and ultimately held on to get the save. But there were too many errors. Bynum went back to his Hollywood mode missing a couple of real plays. In all this was a harrowing experience.

As I calculate it Tuscon can win the division with a phenomenal performance and if the Cats play sub 500 ball. I do not think that will happen but with the 3 errors by one player last night and the couple tonight - it is not out of the range of possibility.

Jairo

Jairo Garcia was earlier in the season an uncertain quantity. Sure he had a 95+ fastball but his control was uncertain. For the past 2 nights - against Round Rock - he has come in at the end of the game and looked very good. We won last night with him at the end and same thing tonight. He looked very well in the 8th and 9th.

Wireless Rivercats

Last night I found that Raley Field has now instituted an 802.11 network. Way cool. Logs in easily, is free and works well.

Dinger is not a certain friend

We took our grandson to a River Cats game this evening and had some discussions about whether he wanted to meet Dinger - the mascot. Mason is going to be three next week and his relationship with Dinger is uncertain. Dinger kept inching to our seat and all of a sudden we noticed Mason was under his seat and was holding it down with one hand. He stayed there until Dinger was gone then encouraged me and my wife to go down and "be nice to him."

Later in the game a batter hit one back in the section next to ours and over the back. When that happens the sound effects guy does a squealing cat. Mason remarked that "That cat is dead, got the air pushed out of him."

Talking Baseball

JAB and Johnny Doskow in the Broadcast Booth, originally uploaded by drtaxsacto.

As part of the season ticket holder's benefits for the Sacramento River Cats you get a breakfast with the team in June. At that I won a chance to be in the broadcast booth with Johnny Doskow - the voice of the Rivercats. It was supposed to be for a half inning - but because the top of the fourth went by in about 8 pitches I got to do the whole fourth.

It was a fun thing to do. Doskow is one of the best play by play guys I have heard. He has the gift that Vin Scully has in being able to tell the story of the game and at the same time weave in a lot of extra information. He is also not a homers announcer - he calls them without the hoopla of some people in the profession - he is a real fan but he doesn't color it with rah rah comments. What I also found out yesterday was he also knows a lot about baseball. He remembered that Fernando Valenzuela came up in 1981. (FV was one of my favorites.) Doskow is a graduate of University of LaVerne - which is a member of the Association I am president of - and he liked his experience there.
This was the first time back to see the Cats for us in about 10 days - they were awfully flat. We went with some old friends who really know baseball. He is an A's fan and went to spring training and so knew a lot about many of the players. But even though they were 7 games up in their division they sure did not look it against the Albuquerque Isotopes (formerly a Dodger farm team now of the Marlins). Today the Round Rock Express comes in for four and then Fresno. Before the end of the month and the regular season they meet Fresno several more times - four this week, then five in Fresno followed by the last three at home against them. So a lot of the season depends on how well they do against one team.
The picture was taken by an intern that did not seem to understand that when taking into the light one uses a flash. Ah well - the real light came from the game and the announcers not the stupid picture!

Guide Dogs for Blue

For most of the season with the Rivercats our section has offered commentary for the umpires. This is a great tradition in American baseball. Some have gotten very sophisticated. A friend who has an Oakland A's season ticket once found biographical information on a particularly lousy ump and continued to make references to his wife and to where he had gone to umping school. There is some level of decorum which prohibits personal comments - but even that is often overstepped when you offer analysis using the first name of the ump and not the more generic "blue"

One of my favorite taunts is "Blue, bring your dog out there, he can help." In a recent game we had our grandson with us and he commented after I offered that suggestion to the ump - "Grandpa, there are no dogs on the field."

Wireless Welcomes

We were transiting through Miami today on the way home and sat down in the F lounge. There was an open wireless network.
I use Hotspots a lot - but this one was open and quite good. How welcoming a place to find an ability to check email and other net things.

There are a bunch of places in Sacramento with the same welcome mat. But this was the first one I found in an airport.
This was a stark comparison to the one in the Frenchman's Reef (discussed earlier) which was $20 a day and unreliable. In Miami the signal was strong. What a great aid to passengers. Thanks whoever put it up. Smart!

Resorts and Vacations

For the past six days we have been at the Frenchman's Reef Marriott in the US Virgin Islands. That has brought me to a conclusion that I am not a resort kind of guy. There are a couple of things that bother me.

First, prices. Why should breakfast for two cost $40? Why should the cab union control access and egress from the hotel at outrageous prices? The cheapest way to get to town (about a mile away) is $6 per person.

Second, services. Internet here is inadequate - but $20 per day. The only place you can use wireless is in the lobby or by the pool. The system is such that it degrades terribly when more than one person is on a node.

Third, activity. I really do not like sitting around. My wife likes to lie by the pool. I do not. Watch the Iguanas being fed - swim a few laps and I am bored. We decided to "rest" today. So we had a leisurely breakfast and then went to the pool. I worked on the net for a while and took some photos.

Fourth - tshirts and jewelry. What is it that makes every resort sell them? Prices here are without tax but not remarkable. Jewelry here is nice but not anything much better than you could get in some careful shopping in the US. Ditto for electronics.

Yesterday we went to the British Virgin Islands and that was fun - some interesting things to do and an OK lunch.
My wife has not liked the humidity - what do you expect in the Caribbean during the rainy season?

One wish will be when Wireless is ubiquitous. Then I can go almost anywhere.

Island Hopping

For the past 10 days we have been out of the country - sort of. We went first to Puerto Rico and old San Juan. We stayed in an art deco hotel called the Normandie. I thought it was wonderful. It was built by a guy who met his wife on a ship of the same name - it looks inside and out like an old cruise ship. We spent our first day in old San Juan - visiting El Morro - the fort and some of the shops and the San Juan Bautista (the patron saint of Puerto Rico) Catherdral. We ate at a local restaurant called El Jibarito. The fort is very impressive - massive and designed to scare off but also to ward off intruders into what looks like a great harbor. The restaurant was just home cooking but very nice.

On the second day we went to the rain forest (El Yunque) That was most of a day and we had a guide who was a cross between Newman on Seinfeld and digger o dell. The trip was a good explanation of how rain forests function but also a chance to see several levels of the forest. It was, of course, lush and humid (*duh) - but it was also a range of plants working together. I was impressed at how much more active the forest was than a traditional forest in North America - the processes are all going on there - but they were much more visible.

On Sunday we went on a 20 minute flight to St. Thomas. That was for a meeting of people who do what I do around the country - which meets each summer. We stayed at the Frenchman's Reef. I was not as impressed with St. Thomas as with Puerto Rico - My wife was just the opposite. The cab drivers in USVI have a real racket. On Monday for five of us to go about a mile away from the hotel was $30 - $6 per person. The first day I was there I was stuck in an elevator. I hate small spaces and this one really bothered me so I finally pushed the door open. I was hailed a being resourceful - what it really was was me wanting to get out of the small space. We played a croquet tournament - which I won. And went to a fancy smanzy dinner in a place called the Greathouse - really quite nice. The business meetings were interesting.

Today we went on a trip to the British VI - we strarted early in the morning and then went on to some major geologic uplifts - then to snorkeling (water was not as good as Palau - but few places are) and then to lunch and then to a beach. It was a fun low key day. Tomorrow we simply will veg out by the pool. The addresses of the shots from the US and British Virgin Islands are as follows -

US Virgin Islands with lots of Iguanas

Trip to British Virgin Islands

I have yet to complete the posts for Puerto Rico.

Here's Looking at You Kid

IMG_4616, originally uploaded by drtaxsacto.

On Wednesday last we spent the day going through the Museum of Anthropology in some detail. I say that without reservation - we spent a total of about six and a half hours there and only got through the first floor. The museum is a wonderful example of almost too much. It is divided into several viewing areas that represent most of the major archeological periods in Mexican history. My friend thinks the place is organized wrong - and going through it in the way that he suggests is actually more useful. He would suggest that the most logical way to cover the important cultures and institutions would be to go through more or less chronologically. Thus, he would deemphasize the Aztecs and increase the review of other cultures - even though many of the cultural periods overlap. There are a lot of unresolved issues in any way that you think about understanding the histories of these cultures. Clearly, each of the preceding cultures influenced their successors. But the natural tendency to think in a linear manner is, like in most areas of life, unproductive. Human beings are infinitely resourceful and also unwilling to think about life the way their archeologists want them to think about life. Second, the interest in human sacrifice is not uniform. At the same time, as you look at the development of cultures one can understand that to be able to concentrate on those aspects one needed to have a fairly elaborate economic and communications system - not the same as today - but still pretty good. Finally, the visions of the Spaniards coming over and "civilizing" is not that simple - a lot of the cultural aspects of the cultures the Spaniards encountered were more advanced than their counterparts. None of these revelations is truly amazing but all got me to think more about the dead ends pursued in all cultures.

The trip my friend took me through last Wednesday was truly inspirational and thought provoking. If you are in Mexico City - you should take a day and go there.

Unfortunately, our trip to the Castle at Chapultapec was not as illuminating. The history exhibits have been improved significantly - both to take out the ideological rap and to make the story of Mexican history (mostly of governmental regimes) more coherent. But for some odd reason - after an extensive and largely successful renovation of the interior spaces in what once was a place of government and is now the historical museum - there are no interior pictures allowed. There is a lot of great stuff to see but no legitimate way to record it. What's more there is no CD with pictures of the key works available in the gift shop.

There is a continuing conflict among Mexican historians as to the relative importance of Benito Juarez and Porfirio Diaz. Juarez, who was a contemporary of Lincoln is important but for shear development and even time in grade - the early years of Porforio may be ultimately more important. It is sad that the curators have not gone back to the tradition of allowing photos inside without flash or of offering photos of the key exhibits on a CD.

Mexico in three stories

For most of the last couple of weeks I have been in Mexico, separated by a quick trip to Baltimore, but I digress. I wrote about the AGU-Zacatecas trip in an earlier post. But this trip was to Mexico to visit another couple of friends. I stayed in the apartment of a friend in an area of the city that I had previously not been aware of - it is really handy to everything.

I came in on Friday and went to dinner with both friends - we talked about one friend's attempt to open a restaurant. He is meticulous in detail and wants to open a small place in Xalapa. We also decided to do the tourist things in Mexico City. So on Saturday we went downtown to the Templo Mayor and the Cathedral. My friend who is a priest is going to give a talk on the history of Mexico so I agreed to take some shots he could use to illustrate the talk - the Templo Mayor is (was) a big deal in the middle of the lake that was Mexico City at the time of Cortez. The TM is in the center of the city and has three layers. When Cortez entered the city, it was there. Right next to the TM is both the palace of government as well as the Metropolitan Cathedral Over the last decade the Cathedral has had a pretty massive engineering restructuring. Concrete was pumped into the foundation to add some support to the building. The interior is a beautiful classic church. In the center of that area of town is also a place where a lot of civic activity takes place. Right now, the Mayor of Mexico City - Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador holds a lot of rallys there. At this time he is the putative favorite to be elected to succeed Vicente Fox in the 2006 election. He is a classic demagogue. When I was in Aguascalientes in early July one friend gave me a book on AMLO which is not a bit complementary.

Sunday in Mexico is family day. In the city lots of people bring their families to a place in the center of the city that includes Chapultapec Castle The castle went through a long renovation. It is a cross between a memorial to the PRI view of Mexico - which is decidedly areligious, a national museum to key events in mostly modern history (Porfirio Diaz is presented well - but so is Juarez. The Castle has three parts - a former military college, the former official site of government, and the private residence of the president (until Los Piños). Included in the Castle are several impressive murals and a pretty good treatment of the history of independence. On Sunday evening we went to the Bellas Artes. I've seen opera there but this time we saw folklorico. Unfortunately I did not bring a camera. This was an especially wonderful presentation with about 20 variations of Mexican dance. The Company is one started by Amelia Hernandez - their program is a cross between Alvin Alley and Riverdance. The Folklorico was very good and very colorful.

On Monday we went to look for some chairs with the friend who is looking to start a restaurant and then to the nurseries at Xochomilcho. The nurseries have a ton of small vendors of flowers. As I have done a lot of flower photography this was like kids day at the fair.

Tuesday we spent the day doing light stuff including going to Coyoacan. It is a pretty part of town. We ate lunch there and then searched some bookstores. We got caught in one as a result of a torrential downpour. I bought a brief history of Mexico created by the Collegio de Mexico. On the way home later in the week I began to read it. It is slow going but pretty good.

On Wednesday we spent six and a half hours in the Museo Nacional de Antropología. My friend knows a lot about anthropology in Mexico so we went through a tour that was exceptional - we purposely did not follow the way the museum is laid out but instead took a tour based on a historical timeline.

Thursday before I left for California, we went to the Shrine of Guadalupe. The site has several churches including a modern one built about the time of John XXIII and a more ancient one that was built a couple of hundred years ago. The site now has a memorial to JPII, which is fitting because he celebrated mass here a couple of times.

All in all the visit was a wonderful one.

Travels with Shuffle

Sorry to have been offline for so long but I have been on the road for most of the last two weeks. I spent last week with a friend in Mexico and will comment more on that later but first I wanted to comment on one aspect of the visit.

When I visited this friend in April - he was having some heart work done - I brought him an iPod shuffle. I included a bizarre mix of music on the iPod - in part because that is where my tastes lie but also because I thought it would be interesting as he recovered. He, like me, likes a pretty broad range of music. During this visit, we went to the Apple store and I bought a Dr. Bot kit which includes a nifty iPod holder (I keep forgetting the neat leather pouch I carry it in on airplane seats)and a bunch of connectors and an auto charger and an FM tuner. (All of those by the way are pretty good.)

As we visited places in Mexico he put the iPod on in his Honda and we listened to the music on my big iPod in the shuffle mode. I found out a couple of things. First, my music includes a range of music including Irish, Bluegrass, Folk, Classical, Mexican, Blues, Country and some other unclassifiable music - so the range of tunes is pretty wide. I had thought that there would be a bit of discordance among the collection I had assembled in part because there are so many moods and in part because I found it hard to understand how anyone could listen to Carmen and then Leadbelly and then Ricky Scaggs and then David Allen Coe and then DeDannen. But it actually fits together.

Second, I thought about music in their mode - the albums had become my security blanket - I always thought that Amelia Earheart's Last Flight Amelia Earhart's Last Flight should come after We need a whole lot more of Jesus and a lot less rock and roll - as those songs did on the Greenbriar Boys album - but that is not true. I am not sure I have the energy to make a lot of mixes - but with the shuffle I can get it to mix on its own.

Last night as I was coming back from Mexico - the movie (Sahara - probably the lamest excuse for an adventure movie ever) I tried out my friend's suggestion - my big iPod has 4000 songs (going to 10,000) and at least for the first 140 songs I found that the mix done by the shuffle is pretty interesting. Most importantly, I heard a couple of songs that I probably would not have listened to in my normal search for songs as I sit down on a plane. That is a little thing in life - but really makes the iPod even more useful.

Apple and Osborne (not Ozzie)

In CNET this morning a post was added questioning whether Apple and Osborne (the failed computer maker of the 1970-80s) had parallels. I had the unique experience of having dinner with Adam Osborne the founder and idea guy behind the company about a week before it folded. It was an odd dinner. He asked those of us at dinner whether we would be willing to risk our entire net worth with him on a new venture - if we were not willing to do it we were not "risk takers."

Earlier that year Osborne with a lot of flourish had announced a new version of his popular "portable" computer - 26 pounds and a 3X3 screen. Osborne had created a computer with something that people could actually use. For about $1800 you could get this computer and Wordstar (I wrote a dissertation on it), Visicalc, Basic and a database. Disks then were $50 each and were actually floppy (5"). Osborne's economic model was strange - he offered his computer and software for something less than it cost him to produce it. So even without the vaporware announcement the company was in trouble. He also spent cash pretty wildly - so his R&D was out of whack with his cash flow. Once he had hyped the O2 sales in the original machine tanked so cash dried up.

So how could that performance be compared to Job's announcement about moving to Intel be the same? Part of the problem is the Apple can't do it syndrome - there is a segment of the tech community that either does not get it about Apple or does not want to get it. But beyond that normal baloney is there an issue here?

A few weeks ago I wrote that I thought the deal with Intel was a good one. But there are some other reasons why the parallel with Osborne is not real.

#1 - Cash is king - Osborne burned cash, Jobs has sheparded it. Apple has a current ratio that is twice the industry and tons of cash from the sale of Ipods.
#2 - One trick ponys - Osborne had one product and then announced a competing product that was not yet real. With the Intel announcement Jobs announced an enhancement to one of his product lines that is backwardly compatible.
#3 - Integration - one of the interesting things about Apple in the last few years is they really seem to get product integration. An Ipod works with their computers and with all sorts of other products (iSight for example) - movies and photos as Walt Mossberg has suggested are better on Apple. The iLife and iWork products are bridges to link other technologies which are really pretty good.
#4 - Keeping the developers happy - In the announcement there was something called Rosetta which allows translation between PPC and Intel chips. That is critical for support but also to keep the developers in the mix.

With all those and more - all this worrying is silly.

Vin Scully and the Pope

Last night we had a dinner in Baltimore and I had the chance to sit next to a CFO of a California university and his family including a third grader. The family comes from LA and we talked a little about the challenges of being a Dodger fan and how great Chavez Ravine is as a stadium. They had been to Camden Yards earlier in the day and raved about the stadium and the wife was surprised that Camden is younger than Chavez. We were talking about famous people we have met and I said something like "in 2000 I was thrilled to have an audience with Pope John Paul II, but it was almost as exciting to meet Vin Scully." Scully was a boyhood hero of mine - I heard him on the radio in Bakersfield. The young boy exclaimed "You've met Vin Scully?" That was certainly the best line I have heard in a long time.

We're not afraid

I found a site this morning posted after the London bombings. It is a simple set of photographs all with the substantive message -we're not afraid. It is inspiring in a couple of ways. First, it shows that the average blogger has a good fix on whether the terrorists will ultimately be successful. But it also shows in a fine way the genuine positive forces in humanity.