The Shade Tree Campaign

Earlier in the week I had the opportunity to hear Stu Rothenberg (of the Rothenberg Political Report) and Charlie Cook (Cook Political Report)talk about the prior and coming election. Cook made an interesting analogy about the beginnings of the 2008 race for president. Cook argued that the current rules for fund raising will create an analogy to a forest where there are two big shade trees (the Hillary and the Obama) which will block any sunlight for the lesser candidates. If one of them begins to falter the chance for some of the lesser candidates will possibly emerge. But if that does not happen, they will have a very tough time in getting recognition.

He also argued that the Hillary forces don't worry much about the high forty percent negatives that their candidate has. Those numbers merely suggest that Hillary will concentrate on winning the percentage of voters who potentially would vote for her - in essence they have to concentrate on the 10% or so in the electorate that is undecided. I am not so sure that logic is dispositive. Hillary has a dual problem - that being there are a large number of voters who would never vote for her (in the high 40% range) and another group that is suspicious of her (the Daily Kos types who think she has been too supportive of the war). She does not have the possibility of having a Bush on the ballot in 2008 so I believe her candidacy will sink or swim on issues not related to her GOP opponents.

On the GOP side Rothenberg argued that the two front runners were McCain and Romney and the Guiliani had not yet proven he was serious about his candidacy. I think the setting for the GOP is a lot more tennuous. I am not sure that McCain will not, at some point, blow himself up. Unlike Hillary (on the Dem side) he is not a consistently disciplined campaigner. The press has given him mostly a pass so far but if he starts to become a front runner they might well give him a tougher time. I can't believe that Romney, a candidate who is unlikely to win his own state, is going to be there at the end of the primary season. He certainly has some likeable qualities but I am not sure where he comes out.

Thus, at this point, when the American people are fundamentally disinterested, I do not see as clear a set of signs as the two pundits about where the 2008 election will head - save for one which I will repeat. I think the American people are tired of the two dynasties of the system (Clinton and Bush) and I find it unlikely that a person with either of those names will win the November elections.