So who has it right

On Tuesday California will vote on four propositions that are supported by the Governor - I have discussed them previously but basically - Proposition 74 would extend the time for attaining teacher tenure, 75 would prohibit public employee unions from collecting money for political activity without the express consent of members, 76 would adopt a new way to deal with budget shortfalls and would smooth revenues, 77 would change the way districts are drawn. Two (75 and 77) have been on the ballot previously and lost.

But here is how four different polls project votes

LA Times 74: 45-47 75: 40-51 76: 31-60 77: 34-56
Field 74: 44-50 75: 40-50 76: 32-60 77: 35-51
PPIC 74: 46-48 75: 46-46 76: 30-62 77: 36-50
SurveyUSA 74: 49-50 75: 50-49 76: 49-49 77: 44-53
Stanford/Knowledge Networks 74: 53-47 75: 64-36 76: 45-55 77: 55-45

The first three use a standard polling method with slight variations in sample. The last two use differing methodologies - one an electronic phone survey and one a web based response mechanism.

The question is who will be closest and why the wide variations? Assuming that each poll was taken with integrity - the differences might be explained by a) sample, b) methodology or c) some changes in society which make the first three general methods a bit less reliable than the last two (or vice versa).

One wonders if the first three are on the mark whether the Governor will be damaged goods in the coming year. The conventional wisdom says yes - but a lot of that depends on who is 2006 opponent will be. This will be interesting to see.