There is a lot of chatter about the Mayor of Chicago (and a couple of other wannabe proto Nazis) has argued that he will try to prevent the Fast Food Chain Chick-fil-A from locating in Chicago because the founder of the chain has commented that he is opposed to changing the definition of marriage. I have never asked a fast food vendor about their views on marriage or for that matter catsup. What I want when I visit a fast food place is food.
Emmanuel comes from a long line of proto-fascists. Those that would deny Walmart a chance to build a big box store in their locale because they disagree with the ability of the chain to offer consumers large discounts are in the same tradition.
In the 2008 election I wrote a post on this blog opposing the Proposition on the ballot which would have limited the ability of the state of California to change the definition of marriage. With that history one might expect that I would be supportive of this storm-trooper. But that is not the case.
The role of the state in regulating commercial enterprises should be quite limited. A city should be able to regulate two types of behavior for commercial activity. They should be able to have some direction, according to community standards, about where particular types of businesses should be able to locate. For example, California prohibits liquor stores from being located near public schools. At the same time they should have some authority to assure consumers that what is being served meets some reasonable standards of cleanliness.
But Emmanuel's pronouncements argue that if a company does not meet what he defines as "community standards" then they should be dumped from consideration. From my view that is classic Fascism - for those of you that do not remember the definition - here is the one from Wikipedia. (With the exception of nationalism, it seems to fit the mayor to his brown shirt.
"radical authoritarian nationalist political ideology.[1][2] Fascists seek elevation of their nation based on commitment to an organic national community where its individuals are united together as one people in national identity by suprapersonal connections of ancestry and culture through a totalitarian state that seeks the mass mobilization of a nation through discipline,indoctrination, physical training, and eugenics."
The simple answer for Mr. Emmanuel is if some, or even many Chicagoans, don't like the fast food being offered they can chose not to frequent the restaurant.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Visions of the Economy
Several decades ago, Leonard Reed developed a brochure called I, Pencil - which made the point that as a result of the marvelous coordination in free markets - no one is responsible for creating a pencil but everyone benefits from all those different steps. I recently found the updated version of the piece called I, Smartphone.
The piece takes on more importance because of a couple of recent speeches that the President gave; for example in Roanoke he commented "Look, if you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own. You didn’t get there on your own. I’m always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. There are a lot of smart people out there. It must be because I worked harder than everybody else. Let me tell you something — there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there.
The piece takes on more importance because of a couple of recent speeches that the President gave; for example in Roanoke he commented "Look, if you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own. You didn’t get there on your own. I’m always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart. There are a lot of smart people out there. It must be because I worked harder than everybody else. Let me tell you something — there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there.
If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen..."
In another he claimed the private sector is doing "fine." In that speech he argued "Keep in mind that the private sector has been hiring at a solid pace over the last 27 months. But one of the biggest weaknesses has been state and local governments, which have laid off 450,000 Americans. These are teachers and cops and firefighters. Congress should pass a bill putting them back to work right now, giving help to the states so that those layoffs are not occurring." In both speeches two things happened. First, the GOP pounced on the remarks. But second the President's defenders pounced to suggest that his remarks were being taken out of context. (I offered the extended remarks in both cases to show that the import of what he said was correctly interpreted.)
This line of reasoning is quite consistent with the statements of a number of other left of center pundits and officials who have taken the original notion of Leonard Reed and turned it on its head. You can hear it from Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren or even in the thoroughly forgettable book that Hillary Clinton wrote called It Takes a Village.
Ultimately if you take the logic to its conclusion, these figures are arguing that government, not individuals create prosperity and we as individuals benefit from the wonderful things that government does for us.. In the first quote, he seems to be arguing that hard work and individual determination are not enough; that individuals only prosper when government does. In the second he seems to ignore the labor market participation rate, the 8%+ unemployment rate and the meager GDP growth and suggest that our economic doldrums are caused because we are not hiring enough public officials. He ignores that a lot of those people were hired with the false promises of the original "stimulus" bill.
One of the key concepts when you begin to study economics is "market failure" - the concept that in some exchange, benefits from markets will not be realized. In those cases, it is sometimes appropriate to have the government intervene. (In many cases market failure is corrected by itself - when entrepreneurs step in to force a different result.) What should concern voters in this election is that the President and his allies seem to ignore that if there is the possibility for market failure there is, as Gordon Tullock once pointed out, an equally strong possibility for government failure. Ultimately, the strength of the system which Obama and his supporters would like to change is its flexibility. The market system offers both benefits and risks. What the President and his supporters fail to grasp is that a lot of us believe that the government directed alternative includes equal or greater risks and lower rewards - that seems like a bad bargain.
This line of reasoning is quite consistent with the statements of a number of other left of center pundits and officials who have taken the original notion of Leonard Reed and turned it on its head. You can hear it from Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren or even in the thoroughly forgettable book that Hillary Clinton wrote called It Takes a Village.
Ultimately if you take the logic to its conclusion, these figures are arguing that government, not individuals create prosperity and we as individuals benefit from the wonderful things that government does for us.. In the first quote, he seems to be arguing that hard work and individual determination are not enough; that individuals only prosper when government does. In the second he seems to ignore the labor market participation rate, the 8%+ unemployment rate and the meager GDP growth and suggest that our economic doldrums are caused because we are not hiring enough public officials. He ignores that a lot of those people were hired with the false promises of the original "stimulus" bill.
One of the key concepts when you begin to study economics is "market failure" - the concept that in some exchange, benefits from markets will not be realized. In those cases, it is sometimes appropriate to have the government intervene. (In many cases market failure is corrected by itself - when entrepreneurs step in to force a different result.) What should concern voters in this election is that the President and his allies seem to ignore that if there is the possibility for market failure there is, as Gordon Tullock once pointed out, an equally strong possibility for government failure. Ultimately, the strength of the system which Obama and his supporters would like to change is its flexibility. The market system offers both benefits and risks. What the President and his supporters fail to grasp is that a lot of us believe that the government directed alternative includes equal or greater risks and lower rewards - that seems like a bad bargain.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Inummeracy
I was shopping yesterday and was struck by something curious. In the display for an energy drink called Monster - there were two ways to buy it. You could buy two cans for $3 or a 4 can pack for $6.99.There are several possible explanations to this marketing strategy:
#1 - The makers of Monster do think people who drink this energy supplement are not very bright.
#2 - The price of cardboard has sky-rocketed and I have not heard about it.
#3 - This is an example of new math gone mad.
#4 - The guy in the company who did the pricing strategy is a graduate of some university where math has been through the self esteem movement and answers in arithmetic are "whatever you feel they should be."
#5 - One of the hidden characteristics of Monster is that while your energy is restored your reasoning is wiped out.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Three Comments on All Saints Pasadena
Yesterday I went to All Saints Pasadena to attend church with my mother in law. All Saints is an Episcopal parish that is pretty successful and aggressively on the left side of the denomination. I was left with three impressions.#1 - The left of the church seems to be interested more in the pomp of the service - I grew up in a series of parishes in California that were, even for then, conservative. This service had a lot of people vested and involved. That may be a very good thing but it is different from the parish I attend. The rationale might well be that this is a way to get more people involved. I noticed the same thing when I attended Grace Cathedral for the ordination of my nephew as a deacon.
#2 - The sermon yesterday was interesting but, from my perspective, a bit unbalanced. The Priest yesterday discussed the role of Mary Magdalene in the church. She admitted that when she was given the role in an Easter presentation, she felt a bit demoted. But she made a strong case that even though Mary Magdalene came from low circumstance she could be a participant in the key work of the faith - that Christianity is an inclusive faith. Where I thought her remarks were, at least, a bit unbalanced was in her commentary about the Rome of the time. She tried to make the case that Rome of the time was brutal and non-inclusive. (That is true.) But she also tried to make the case that because of those limitations that we could possibly diminish the breadth of contributions from the Romans. I understand the case, but I disagree with it. One can understand the truly horrible conditions that prevailed in Rome at the time of Christ and yet appreciate the superb contributions made by the civilization. The Aztec civilization was as brutal or more than the Roman one, but I continue to marvel at the advances made in astronomy by them. Churchill's admonition about democracies fits here - "Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." The Roman system of government/ or criminal justice/ or food safety/ or almost anything else does not stand up to today's standards but it did stand up to the comparative systems of the time.
#3 - What are the appropriate limits of Christian action? In the announcements phase of the service, one of the officiants urged all of the people there to sign a petition to the Interior Secretary and to write to the California Senate Appropriations Committee - to take action against hydraulic fracturing. (The process by which fluids are injected into rocks with petroleum resources to extract oil and gas.) California has, in my opinion, severely restricted the availability of petroleum by a series of restrictions on exploration and development. As a result, we have some of the highest prices for gas in the country. I doubt the Priest has any technical background to understand the process of fracking. And I found her dogmatic interjection on two public policy measures to be curious. One of the key themes which I believe has turned off many people to the left side of protestant denominations has been the extensions which many make into the political realm. There are clearly places where one's faith an politics should intertwine - but in this case I think the extension to policies on fracking is a bit of a stretch.
That being said, All Saints is a vibrant parish with a lot of active parishioners.
Friday, July 20, 2012
Leadership, Gays and Eagles
My dad and my two brothers were Eagle Scouts; so was I. So were some of my nephews although my son decided not to become a scout and thus never had the chance to become an Eagle. Recently on twitter and then in the Huff Post, an Eagle turned in his Eagle regalia as a protest against the BSA (Boy Scouts of America) stand against allowing homosexuals to become leaders in the program.
I have a nephew who is a deacon in the Episcopal Church who then posted the following: "As an Eagle Scout, I'm embarrassed by the BSA's continuing discrimination against gays; while I deeply value the time I spent as a Scout, I simply can't support an organization that discriminates so wantonly and senselessly. I would love to volunteer with them, to mentor and lead, but I won't until they're open to all. What's most frustrating is that sexuality is such an ancillary part of Scouting; in fact, I learned absolutely nothing about sex or sexuality as a Scout, and a thousand things about almost everything else. If it's not a central tenant of Scouting, why has the BSA driven such a hard line about it? Martin Cizmar is doing the right thing here, and I hope that it brings a new, open discussion, and eventually change."
I believe my nephew will be a good priest when he assumes those responsibilities but I think his Facebook post was a nonsensical gesture. Let's start with my own position on the commonly understood BSA position which seems to, at a minimum discourage, known homosexuals from participating in scouting. I believe an outright prohibition based on sexual orientation is at best outdated. At the same time since this program is focused on boys who are just beginning to understand their sexuality, the program should actively discourage using the program for almost anything sexual. I believe that the incidence of that problem is very small. The the BSA needs to rethink its requirements. But CIzmar's and my nephew's actions are not an example of leadership but rather a politically correct statement that is unlikely to effect change in the organization.
Cizmar's alternative would have been to enlist a lot of other Eagles to protest the current BSA policy. But instead he made an idle comment and sends back some trinkets. If Cizmar really cared about this issue - he would have tried to figure out how to enlist the elite group of Eagles from generations of scouting, who disagree with what seems to be a pretty rigid policy. A lot of this crap reminds me of the idiots who disagreed with the Vietnam War and said "if we just sing loud enough, they will end the war." I suspect a lot of generations of Eagles would be quite willing to express opposition to the current policy. Perhaps many would be willing to draft an alternative which recognized the issue in a better light.
My nephew is a deacon in the Episcopal Church. A few years ago when the national convention chose to make a couple of decisions which seemed to avoid the normal processes of discernment that the Canons of the church require, I had a long discussion with the then seminarian who argued with me that I should stay in the church and work to change the things I disagreed with from within. The role of an Eagle in the scouting movement is important - between 2 and 5% of the boys in the program reach that rank (depending on your sources). About 2 million young men have received the award in the last 100 years. Some where north of 100 Eagles have returned their medals to the BSA in protest of the current policy on homosexuals.
But from my perspective a better approach would be to identify the living Eagles in the country who disagree with the policy and then enlist them to question the policy. The symbolic dropping off of medals reminds me of the work by John Kerry during the Vietnam War (who threw his medals over the fence at the White House). Ultimately, if you want to do something more than a symbol - you need to actually engage.
I have a nephew who is a deacon in the Episcopal Church who then posted the following: "As an Eagle Scout, I'm embarrassed by the BSA's continuing discrimination against gays; while I deeply value the time I spent as a Scout, I simply can't support an organization that discriminates so wantonly and senselessly. I would love to volunteer with them, to mentor and lead, but I won't until they're open to all. What's most frustrating is that sexuality is such an ancillary part of Scouting; in fact, I learned absolutely nothing about sex or sexuality as a Scout, and a thousand things about almost everything else. If it's not a central tenant of Scouting, why has the BSA driven such a hard line about it? Martin Cizmar is doing the right thing here, and I hope that it brings a new, open discussion, and eventually change."
I believe my nephew will be a good priest when he assumes those responsibilities but I think his Facebook post was a nonsensical gesture. Let's start with my own position on the commonly understood BSA position which seems to, at a minimum discourage, known homosexuals from participating in scouting. I believe an outright prohibition based on sexual orientation is at best outdated. At the same time since this program is focused on boys who are just beginning to understand their sexuality, the program should actively discourage using the program for almost anything sexual. I believe that the incidence of that problem is very small. The the BSA needs to rethink its requirements. But CIzmar's and my nephew's actions are not an example of leadership but rather a politically correct statement that is unlikely to effect change in the organization.
Cizmar's alternative would have been to enlist a lot of other Eagles to protest the current BSA policy. But instead he made an idle comment and sends back some trinkets. If Cizmar really cared about this issue - he would have tried to figure out how to enlist the elite group of Eagles from generations of scouting, who disagree with what seems to be a pretty rigid policy. A lot of this crap reminds me of the idiots who disagreed with the Vietnam War and said "if we just sing loud enough, they will end the war." I suspect a lot of generations of Eagles would be quite willing to express opposition to the current policy. Perhaps many would be willing to draft an alternative which recognized the issue in a better light.
My nephew is a deacon in the Episcopal Church. A few years ago when the national convention chose to make a couple of decisions which seemed to avoid the normal processes of discernment that the Canons of the church require, I had a long discussion with the then seminarian who argued with me that I should stay in the church and work to change the things I disagreed with from within. The role of an Eagle in the scouting movement is important - between 2 and 5% of the boys in the program reach that rank (depending on your sources). About 2 million young men have received the award in the last 100 years. Some where north of 100 Eagles have returned their medals to the BSA in protest of the current policy on homosexuals.
But from my perspective a better approach would be to identify the living Eagles in the country who disagree with the policy and then enlist them to question the policy. The symbolic dropping off of medals reminds me of the work by John Kerry during the Vietnam War (who threw his medals over the fence at the White House). Ultimately, if you want to do something more than a symbol - you need to actually engage.
Friday, July 13, 2012
The Two Speeches to the NAACP Convention
I listened with interest to the two speeches at the NAACP Convention. While I thought the coverage of Romney's was a bit off (explained below), both speakers accomplished their objective.
Let's start with Biden. Biden is prone to malaprops and this one was remarkably free of them. He only mispronounced one word. He gave a good partisan speech (albeit with some distortions of record) to a liberal group. Biden has a long history with the organization and he clearly was speaking to friends. In the last election, the normal role of Vice President as attack dog, was muted because the GOP candidate and the media did a lot of the attacks themselves. This time it is clear he will be the attack dog in chief. I believe that a lot of the Obama campaign will be negative because besides Osama and Obamacare (which is still pretty unpopular) there is not much to run on. Obama's economic record has been dismal. So the BS that surrogates like the DNC Chair have handed out (with the willing assistance of some members of the media) like the "felony" claim will be the major focus of the campaign. What I especially liked about Biden's speech was its genuine sound. Many politicians, including the President, adopt a colloquial sound (dropping gs is one example) when they speak to an African American audience but Biden did not.
Romney had a slightly different task. The chances that he will win even a strong plurality of the convention attendees is zero. So in one sense he was speaking not to the convention attendees, most of who were respectful, but to a larger audience. And his speech, in my opinion, conveyed several positive things. First, he showed up. More importantly he gave a substantive speech. While the NAACP is not what it once was, most Americans recognize that it is an important group, presidential candidates have an obligation to present their views to a variety of audiences. Romney came and gave a speech that was respectful in tone. It did not pander. In spite of the news coverage, I think most Americans will respect that. At the same time, in at least one instance, he showed a willingness to present not just his canned speech but the depth of his thought. When he was booed for suggesting the repeal of Obamacare, he went off text and argued (I believe correctly) that the effects of this new program will depress employment prospects. Perhaps the most important audience to the speech was the independents, who will hold the balance in this election. The substance of the speech can be easily parsed into substantive sound bites that hit themes that most polling suggests are concerns for independents.
Let's start with Biden. Biden is prone to malaprops and this one was remarkably free of them. He only mispronounced one word. He gave a good partisan speech (albeit with some distortions of record) to a liberal group. Biden has a long history with the organization and he clearly was speaking to friends. In the last election, the normal role of Vice President as attack dog, was muted because the GOP candidate and the media did a lot of the attacks themselves. This time it is clear he will be the attack dog in chief. I believe that a lot of the Obama campaign will be negative because besides Osama and Obamacare (which is still pretty unpopular) there is not much to run on. Obama's economic record has been dismal. So the BS that surrogates like the DNC Chair have handed out (with the willing assistance of some members of the media) like the "felony" claim will be the major focus of the campaign. What I especially liked about Biden's speech was its genuine sound. Many politicians, including the President, adopt a colloquial sound (dropping gs is one example) when they speak to an African American audience but Biden did not. Romney had a slightly different task. The chances that he will win even a strong plurality of the convention attendees is zero. So in one sense he was speaking not to the convention attendees, most of who were respectful, but to a larger audience. And his speech, in my opinion, conveyed several positive things. First, he showed up. More importantly he gave a substantive speech. While the NAACP is not what it once was, most Americans recognize that it is an important group, presidential candidates have an obligation to present their views to a variety of audiences. Romney came and gave a speech that was respectful in tone. It did not pander. In spite of the news coverage, I think most Americans will respect that. At the same time, in at least one instance, he showed a willingness to present not just his canned speech but the depth of his thought. When he was booed for suggesting the repeal of Obamacare, he went off text and argued (I believe correctly) that the effects of this new program will depress employment prospects. Perhaps the most important audience to the speech was the independents, who will hold the balance in this election. The substance of the speech can be easily parsed into substantive sound bites that hit themes that most polling suggests are concerns for independents.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
"Visionaries" and OPM
Two local leaders are heading down paths that do not seem
well grounded in reality. The first is
Sacramento’s Mayor, Kevin Johnson.
Johnson would like to revitalize the downtown of the city by getting a
large project done in an area called the rail yards. At one time this was a busy part of the city
but since rail transport has declined, so has the need for a big repair
facility. For all the time that I have
lived in Sacramento, this has been a big, toxic site next to down town. And with the right vision, the area could be
a big deal.
Johnson’s first shot was to bring our lackluster basketball
franchise to come to the area.
Unfortunately, the thugs who own the team thought it was guaranteed that
the city would supply most of the cash for the new arena that they wanted. Sacramento's voters have been pretty clear on that notion. The political class (he has a group called "Think Big" that is made up of leaders from the area.) of the area put together a plan which mostly did not use any (new) public money. After about two years of drama, the deal blew
up this spring. The Maloofs (the
owners) said they would take their franchise and leave. For most of their history in Sacramento they
have been one player away from being a competitive franchise. From my perspective it will be good riddance
if the franchise leaves. I am not sure
any other city would benefit from their move but it is clear we might.
The Bee’s story described the Mayor’s next gambit which
would be to attract a baseball franchise – presumably the Oakland A’s, whose
AAA franchise (the Rivercats) currently plays in West Sacramento. That would be a $500 million deal and would
most likely mean an end to the Rivercats.
Were the A’s interested in moving to Sacramento, the logical way to do
it would be to enlarge Raley Field. And
according to most people, the stadium was built with that possibility in mind.
It is unclear how many fans the A’s would attract to the 80+
home games a year. In the last two
years, attendance at the Rivercats has been on the decline – although they
continue to play great baseball. A good part of that could be the economy. Those bumps notwithstanding, the Rivercats are considered to be the most valuable franchise in minor league baseball. A true vision would include the region not just a way to clean up the rail yards.
About a half a mile away, at the State Capitol, another
“vision” was being debated last week – the first increment of a proposed $100 billion
high speed rail train between the Bay Area and Los Angeles. (Oh I know, the supporters have said this will cost only $69 billion - but these were the same fools who said it would be about $10 billion when they started to push it.) The plan sounds fantastic. Get on a train in San Francisco or Sacramento
and get off in central LA in a couple of hours.
But there are a lot of problems here.
First, while some of the funding is coming from federal sources (we all
know how well the federal budget is), a large portion of it will come from
bonds sold by the state. The first
increment, which would build a section from nowhere to nowhere, will produce
some jobs but not riders. Indeed outside
experts have suggested there is a lot better route to use. But our “visionary” governor (who once
proposed a state program in space travel) wants to proceed apace.
In both cases the plans are constructed with OPM – other
people’s money. In both cases the
economic assumptions of the projects are absurd, at best. Both represent a desire by elected officials
to make that one big play. In reality,
growth and development comes from consistent incremental steps. Both officials could spend some time trying
to simplify the path for development in the state. One problem with chasing after rainbows is
that you never seem to be able to catch them and their attendant pot of gold at one end.
Friday, July 06, 2012
Constitutional Theology
In a column on July 4 E.J. Dionne discussed the unique American characteristic to engage in high principled debate. He states in part "We are a more philosophical people than we give ourselves credit for. Constitutional questions enter the political conversation in the United States more than in most countries because our diverse nation is bound by our founding principles, not by blood, race or ethnicity.This has advantages and disadvantages. The biggest advantages are our openness and the fact that we tend to argue on the basis of high principles. The biggest disadvantage is that differences over policy are often disguised as differences over whether a preferred choice is constitutional or not. When we should be addressing pragmatic questions — Will this approach work? Will it solve the problem it’s designed to solve? Is this a problem government should do something about? — we instead fall back on rather abstract discussions of whether a given idea violates the Constitution."
He goes on that we should not treat the Founders as theologians not the Constitution as scripture. While I get his point, I think he misses an essential element of the American system.
The Constitution was made to evolve but it also includes some eternal principles. The Founders were products of their times but they also understood some ideas like the dangers of having a government that was all encompassing. They enumerated powers to Congress and then put in that pesky "necessary and proper" clause - but that was not there to rescind the limits on the other powers. So while I agree with him that pragmatic questions are always appropriate - one of the most pragmatic questions is what will the proposed policy do to the underlying American fabric, that the Founders recognized so well. That is not theology, it is common sense.
Thursday, July 05, 2012
MALO - Your Fifteen Minutes are UP
The Mexican election on the First of July was, according to all observers, a clean process. Over the last three election cycles, beginning in 2000, the election commission (IFE) has done a lot of things to assure that votes are counted correctly. This time for instance they required a valid voter ID to cast a vote (what a novel concept that so far liberals in the US reject). They also use an indelible ink to assure that no one votes more than once (similar to the process used in the Iraqi elections). But here comes Manuel Andres Lopez Obrador (or as he calls himself Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador - to avoid being call MALO) still not willing to concede that he took a distant second place with 31% of the vote and declining as the IFE continues its recount. Lopez Obrador alleged all sorts of misdeeds by his opponents. Independent observers have suggested that the process was very good- even excellent. Get over it Bozo, your time in the limelight is passed.
I am not sure what kind of president Enrique Peña Nieto will be. The criticism of him early on was that he lacked substance. But in the last few months, he has presented some challenging ideas about where the country should go. Josefina Mota has conceded but poor, old AMLO thinks he still holds some sway. Thankfully, the Mexican people have moved on from this constant whiner.
Saturday, June 30, 2012
Muddle
The Supreme Court Decision on the Affordable Care Act is a confusing set of concurrences and dissents. The decision, written by the Chief Justice, concludes for a majority that the Act could not be constitutional under either the Commerce Clause (where he argues persuasively that application of the clause would "open a new and potentially vast domain to congressional authority") nor to the Necessary and Proper Clause of the Constitution. In addition, he argues that while the individual mandate is within the broad powers to tax (even though the Congress conscientiously avoided calling the penalty a tax) the mandate is appropriate as a penalty. He said that the provisions of the Anti-Injunction Act (which only allows suits against taxes be accepted after the tax has gone into effect) do not apply here. Finally, he argued with six other members of the court that the expansion of Medicaid with the severe penalties attached was an overextension of authority but could be cured by simply limiting the penalty to states to money advanced from the feds beyond current funding as that subject to penalty. Roberts also makes the case that the Court cannot be assumed to be responsible for rescuing us from lousy policy making done by Congress, that is for the political process to do. In each of those decisions, there is some point and counter point.
For example, while the Chief Justice argues that the penalty paid by persons who do not purchase health insurance is a "penalty" not a tax (and thus subject to the provisions of the Anti-Injunction Act) he does affirm the mandate as within the broad powers to tax. My concern is that the rather elegant distinctions made in his written opinion could well be swept aside by another expansive view of the commerce clause, by simply calling the mandate a penalty. Under Roberts' reasoning almost anything some politician thought was necessary would be proper.
In his majority opinion, the Chief Justice then goes on to cite the many problems created by the enactment. He argues that the community rating reforms and guaranteed issue requirements "sharply exacerbate that problem by encouraging individuals to delay purchasing health insurance until they become sick, relying on the promise of guaranteed and affordable coverage." In the next instance he says the act will impose significant new costs on insurers by limiting their ability to make actuarially sound ratings decisions.
His discussion on the Commerce Clause is scholarly. He says that the clause has always been applied only to reaching activity. He makes a strong case that inactivity cannot be included - the "broccoli" argument. He suggests that the "individual mandate, however, does not regulate commercial activity." He makes a strong case that Congress is prohibited from using its "commerce power to compel citizens to act as the Government would have them to act." The slippery slope of the necessary argument (we need this because even people who are not involved in purchasing insurance are involved in health care) is rejected emphatically. The Chief suggests that the proposition that "Congress may dictate the conduct of an individual today because of prophesied future activity finds no support in our precedent." In this case, Roberts makes a clear case that the concept of enumerated powers, with the exception of taxation, is significantly proscribed. That is an argument that is not supported by any of the liberals on the court.
Roberts argues that the "penalty" is indeed a tax, although not covered in the sense of the Anti-injunction Act. And with that formulation he then dismisses the inactivity issue, which would be created in the commerce clause analysis, if the penalty is a tax. People cannot avoid a tax by inactivity, even if they cannot be compelled to join in commerce. Roberts tried to limit his analysis on taxation by suggesting that the ability of taxes to compel behavior is limited. He suggests that the commerce clause gives Congress a better opportunity to regulate behavior than the tax power. The opinion clearly argues that the Federal Government does not "have the power to order people to buy health insurance." But the dissent points out the folly of that distinction. Ultimately, individuals will be compelled to act in odd ways. Roberts' opinion is hoisted on on a logical abyss.
In the Medicaid discussion Roberts' logic is even more confused. He argues that "Permitting the Federal Government to force the States to implement a federal program would threaten the political accountability key to our federal system." While I think his statement is correct, enactments like No Child Left Behind and many provisions in the health statutes have key elements of compulsion. What Roberts argues is that the Medicaid expansion is a bridge too far. He conditions that in part on the idea that Medicaid is a significant part of the total spending in states. (Ginsberg notes in a footnote to the Roberts opinion that Medicaid spending will only increase by .8%).
From my perspective I think Roberts was trying to work on the legacy of the court rather than think about the issues before the court. Clearly, he rejected almost all of the major issues proposed by the Solicitor General in his oral arguments and written briefs. But support for his well reasoned decision was slight. Support for the arguments about the Necessary and Proper and Commerce Clause came more from the four who dissented than those supposedly in the majority. The strongest majority in the opinion was the seven justices who rejected the Medicaid funding coercion.
In one odd footnote to the decision, the Sacramento Bee and the New York Times this morning included an article that the Solicitor General whose performance in the case was so widely panned by both left and right, feels "vindicated." I find that strange. Mr. Verilli argued that the Commerce Clause could be used and that the Necessary and Proper Clause was an appropriate exercise of power (a majority of justices disagreed). He argued that the mandate was not a tax (a majority disagreed). He argued that the involuntary expansion of Medicaid was appropriate (seven justices disagreed). So the substance of his arguments were substantially rejected. But the law was upheld. Somehow pyrrhic victories come to mind.
At the same time Justice Ginsberg came up with a novel interpretation of the law. The rest of the court's liberals signed on to part of this expansive argument. While I will quote some of their reasoning below, it seems to me that Ginsberg's lead writing argued that the necessary and proper clause could be interpreted thusly "If I think it is necessary, it is proper.' Justice Ginsberg's lack of appreciation of the limits of federal power is appalling. Ginsberg argues that the huge expansion into health care is simply an extension of the growth of federal powers that started with the creation of Social Security. She mocks the Chief in commenting that his "crabbed reading of the Commerce Clause harks back to the era in which the court routinely thwarted Congress' efforts to regulate the national economy in the interest of those who labor to sustain it." She goes on to justify this expansion of power because health insurance is costly. (Not sure where the Constitutional justification based on cost is found. In reality that is a nonsensical formulation.) She also says that the a more expansive reading of the Necessary and Proper clause can be justified because 50 million people are not consumers of health insurance. (And she infers that the reason for this number is that those people cannot afford to purchase insurance. Unfortunately she makes this assertion without any evidence.)
What troubles me most about Ginsberg's notions is that she immediately concludes that just because there are problems in the health care market, Congress should have the power to establish a command and control solution. She seems not to have even considered that there are plenty of other alternatives that would be possible without rolling over the Commerce and Necessary and Proper Clauses. She even suggests that the solution created by the ACA was actually lesser than THE alternative which was single payor. (Never considering that there could have been market based solutions that would be less violative of key constitutional provisions.) Congress solved the problems of health insurance, according to Ginsberg, by requiring guaranteed issue and community rating but she says those remedies were not going to work unless you compelled individuals to participate in the market. If it is necessary, it must be proper. She also assumes that (from a quote I believe misapplied from the McCulloch case) that the Constitution would "change over time" - any constitutional scholar understands this but Ginsberg assumes that the constitutional limitations of powers are not immutable. Obviously, there was not an internet, or even health insurance when the Constitution was drafted but Ginsberg also assumes that the framers had no knowledge of immutable principles that would guide regardless of changes in situations. For example, while there was not heart bypass surgery at the end of the eighteenth century - there was knowledge of the moral hazards of an overly expansive government. That is exactly the point that the framers made in constructing the idea of enumerated powers - which both Roberts and the dissenters seem to understand and which Ginsberg blithely ignores.
What is also interesting to me is that Ginsberg then goes on to assume that the Court should not intervene in decisions by Congress. She quotes a well known phrase from the Pension Guarantee case which from my view is not dispositive to the argument about whether the court has the ability to throw something out which does not fit within the broader principles that underly the limited nature of the Constitution. As I said, I am appalled by this inability to understand that the Constitution is not an open-ended relationship between the governing and the governed. Has Justice Ginsberg never read Federalist #51? (But the great security against a gradual concentration of the several powers in the same department, consists in giving to those who administer each department the necessary constitutional means and personal motives to resist encroachments of the others. The provision for defense must in this, as in all other cases, be made commensurate to the danger of attack. Ambition must be made to counteract ambition. The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place. It may be a reflection on human nature, that such devices should be necessary to control the abuses of government. But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions.) Ginsberg also ignores the potential negative effects of defective legislation (which Roberts' recognizes but then dismisses). Ultimately Ginsberg assumes that health is a special market so other principles should not apply. Ginsberg's ultimate judgement is that all of the act is just fine. As noted above from my perspective that is an absurd position.
The four dissenters, who ultimately uphold the interpretation of the Chief on the Commerce Clause and the Necessary and Proper Clause, argue (I believe correctly and in opposition to Ginsberg's exuberant interpretation of congressional authority) that there are "structural limits upon federal power" especially as it relates to private conduct. They point out that one of the difficulties in this area is that there are a group of individuals (people who are young and healthy) who choose not to buy insurance. They suggest that "Congress' desire to force these individuals to purchase insurance is motivated by the fact that they are further removed from the market than unhealthy individuals with pre-existing conditions, because they are less likely to need extensive care in the near future." But as the dissenters argue and the liberal side ignore is that there are plenty of alternative ways to nudge people into decisions which would be more community supportive. For example, a few pages later the dissenters argue that people who did not purchase insurance could be compelled to pay a surcharge for insurance services if they chose to join the insurance pool later in life. The dissenters also argue that there are plenty of markets where non-purchasers can affect markets. For example, people who do not consume broccoli will affect the market for broccoli - that is the very nature of markets. While the emotional issues in health care are higher than the ones for broccoli - both are a demonstration of the responsive nature of markets and there the Constitutions has(in my opinion) wisely restricted the ability of Congress to compel behavior. "If all inactivity affecting commerce is commerce, commerce is everything." While I agree with the logic of the dissenter's concerns, I also recognize that Roberts' discussion that the Court should not be in the business of rewriting bad policy decisions. In this case, I think the Constitutional hazards in the statute, which was a 900 page document that few people read (which is one of the reasons I read the decision so carefully), were so substantial that the better move would have been to declare the entire Act unconstitutional. Contrary to Justice Ginsberg's rant about the limitations of the Court's power (one of the few areas where she seems to recognize limits on governmental authority), I believe the Court was well within its authority to throw the whole thing out.
The dissenters are passionate in their argument that the court cannot "rewrite what is not." A tax is a tax not a penalty. If it is a tax certain statutes apply.
One is drawn to whether the balance that I believe the Chief Justice tried to achieve was accomplished. I believe it was not. The key decisions in the case (which threw out the arguments on the Commerce and Necessary and Proper Clause) were agreed to by Roberts and the four dissenters. (And only partially by some of the other justices.) The consensus that Roberts sought was not achieved except on a very limited notion that the Medicaid penalty was excessive. Calling a penalty (which Congress declared the mandate to be) a tax does not change the fundamental effect of the mandate. My objection to the ACA was that it had the potential to increase demand for health care without doing anything serious about increasing supply. There is no reason to believe that the Solomon like decision of the Chief Justice did anything to correct the very real problems in our healthcare system. In the best of circumstances both the liberals and the conservatives in Congress would spend some time trying to figure out how to improve a defective statute (which Roberts says is not the Court's job to do). But what I fear is that the supporters of the ACA will claim victory and ignore the real problems of the Act (including the very real ones described in the four dissenter's opinion) and the opponents will try the symbolic but meaningless act of voting on repealing the statute. We deserve better.
For example, while the Chief Justice argues that the penalty paid by persons who do not purchase health insurance is a "penalty" not a tax (and thus subject to the provisions of the Anti-Injunction Act) he does affirm the mandate as within the broad powers to tax. My concern is that the rather elegant distinctions made in his written opinion could well be swept aside by another expansive view of the commerce clause, by simply calling the mandate a penalty. Under Roberts' reasoning almost anything some politician thought was necessary would be proper.
In his majority opinion, the Chief Justice then goes on to cite the many problems created by the enactment. He argues that the community rating reforms and guaranteed issue requirements "sharply exacerbate that problem by encouraging individuals to delay purchasing health insurance until they become sick, relying on the promise of guaranteed and affordable coverage." In the next instance he says the act will impose significant new costs on insurers by limiting their ability to make actuarially sound ratings decisions.
His discussion on the Commerce Clause is scholarly. He says that the clause has always been applied only to reaching activity. He makes a strong case that inactivity cannot be included - the "broccoli" argument. He suggests that the "individual mandate, however, does not regulate commercial activity." He makes a strong case that Congress is prohibited from using its "commerce power to compel citizens to act as the Government would have them to act." The slippery slope of the necessary argument (we need this because even people who are not involved in purchasing insurance are involved in health care) is rejected emphatically. The Chief suggests that the proposition that "Congress may dictate the conduct of an individual today because of prophesied future activity finds no support in our precedent." In this case, Roberts makes a clear case that the concept of enumerated powers, with the exception of taxation, is significantly proscribed. That is an argument that is not supported by any of the liberals on the court.
Roberts argues that the "penalty" is indeed a tax, although not covered in the sense of the Anti-injunction Act. And with that formulation he then dismisses the inactivity issue, which would be created in the commerce clause analysis, if the penalty is a tax. People cannot avoid a tax by inactivity, even if they cannot be compelled to join in commerce. Roberts tried to limit his analysis on taxation by suggesting that the ability of taxes to compel behavior is limited. He suggests that the commerce clause gives Congress a better opportunity to regulate behavior than the tax power. The opinion clearly argues that the Federal Government does not "have the power to order people to buy health insurance." But the dissent points out the folly of that distinction. Ultimately, individuals will be compelled to act in odd ways. Roberts' opinion is hoisted on on a logical abyss.
In the Medicaid discussion Roberts' logic is even more confused. He argues that "Permitting the Federal Government to force the States to implement a federal program would threaten the political accountability key to our federal system." While I think his statement is correct, enactments like No Child Left Behind and many provisions in the health statutes have key elements of compulsion. What Roberts argues is that the Medicaid expansion is a bridge too far. He conditions that in part on the idea that Medicaid is a significant part of the total spending in states. (Ginsberg notes in a footnote to the Roberts opinion that Medicaid spending will only increase by .8%).
From my perspective I think Roberts was trying to work on the legacy of the court rather than think about the issues before the court. Clearly, he rejected almost all of the major issues proposed by the Solicitor General in his oral arguments and written briefs. But support for his well reasoned decision was slight. Support for the arguments about the Necessary and Proper and Commerce Clause came more from the four who dissented than those supposedly in the majority. The strongest majority in the opinion was the seven justices who rejected the Medicaid funding coercion.
In one odd footnote to the decision, the Sacramento Bee and the New York Times this morning included an article that the Solicitor General whose performance in the case was so widely panned by both left and right, feels "vindicated." I find that strange. Mr. Verilli argued that the Commerce Clause could be used and that the Necessary and Proper Clause was an appropriate exercise of power (a majority of justices disagreed). He argued that the mandate was not a tax (a majority disagreed). He argued that the involuntary expansion of Medicaid was appropriate (seven justices disagreed). So the substance of his arguments were substantially rejected. But the law was upheld. Somehow pyrrhic victories come to mind.
At the same time Justice Ginsberg came up with a novel interpretation of the law. The rest of the court's liberals signed on to part of this expansive argument. While I will quote some of their reasoning below, it seems to me that Ginsberg's lead writing argued that the necessary and proper clause could be interpreted thusly "If I think it is necessary, it is proper.' Justice Ginsberg's lack of appreciation of the limits of federal power is appalling. Ginsberg argues that the huge expansion into health care is simply an extension of the growth of federal powers that started with the creation of Social Security. She mocks the Chief in commenting that his "crabbed reading of the Commerce Clause harks back to the era in which the court routinely thwarted Congress' efforts to regulate the national economy in the interest of those who labor to sustain it." She goes on to justify this expansion of power because health insurance is costly. (Not sure where the Constitutional justification based on cost is found. In reality that is a nonsensical formulation.) She also says that the a more expansive reading of the Necessary and Proper clause can be justified because 50 million people are not consumers of health insurance. (And she infers that the reason for this number is that those people cannot afford to purchase insurance. Unfortunately she makes this assertion without any evidence.)
What troubles me most about Ginsberg's notions is that she immediately concludes that just because there are problems in the health care market, Congress should have the power to establish a command and control solution. She seems not to have even considered that there are plenty of other alternatives that would be possible without rolling over the Commerce and Necessary and Proper Clauses. She even suggests that the solution created by the ACA was actually lesser than THE alternative which was single payor. (Never considering that there could have been market based solutions that would be less violative of key constitutional provisions.) Congress solved the problems of health insurance, according to Ginsberg, by requiring guaranteed issue and community rating but she says those remedies were not going to work unless you compelled individuals to participate in the market. If it is necessary, it must be proper. She also assumes that (from a quote I believe misapplied from the McCulloch case) that the Constitution would "change over time" - any constitutional scholar understands this but Ginsberg assumes that the constitutional limitations of powers are not immutable. Obviously, there was not an internet, or even health insurance when the Constitution was drafted but Ginsberg also assumes that the framers had no knowledge of immutable principles that would guide regardless of changes in situations. For example, while there was not heart bypass surgery at the end of the eighteenth century - there was knowledge of the moral hazards of an overly expansive government. That is exactly the point that the framers made in constructing the idea of enumerated powers - which both Roberts and the dissenters seem to understand and which Ginsberg blithely ignores.
What is also interesting to me is that Ginsberg then goes on to assume that the Court should not intervene in decisions by Congress. She quotes a well known phrase from the Pension Guarantee case which from my view is not dispositive to the argument about whether the court has the ability to throw something out which does not fit within the broader principles that underly the limited nature of the Constitution. As I said, I am appalled by this inability to understand that the Constitution is not an open-ended relationship between the governing and the governed. Has Justice Ginsberg never read Federalist #51? (But the great security against a gradual concentration of the several powers in the same department, consists in giving to those who administer each department the necessary constitutional means and personal motives to resist encroachments of the others. The provision for defense must in this, as in all other cases, be made commensurate to the danger of attack. Ambition must be made to counteract ambition. The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place. It may be a reflection on human nature, that such devices should be necessary to control the abuses of government. But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions.) Ginsberg also ignores the potential negative effects of defective legislation (which Roberts' recognizes but then dismisses). Ultimately Ginsberg assumes that health is a special market so other principles should not apply. Ginsberg's ultimate judgement is that all of the act is just fine. As noted above from my perspective that is an absurd position.
The four dissenters, who ultimately uphold the interpretation of the Chief on the Commerce Clause and the Necessary and Proper Clause, argue (I believe correctly and in opposition to Ginsberg's exuberant interpretation of congressional authority) that there are "structural limits upon federal power" especially as it relates to private conduct. They point out that one of the difficulties in this area is that there are a group of individuals (people who are young and healthy) who choose not to buy insurance. They suggest that "Congress' desire to force these individuals to purchase insurance is motivated by the fact that they are further removed from the market than unhealthy individuals with pre-existing conditions, because they are less likely to need extensive care in the near future." But as the dissenters argue and the liberal side ignore is that there are plenty of alternative ways to nudge people into decisions which would be more community supportive. For example, a few pages later the dissenters argue that people who did not purchase insurance could be compelled to pay a surcharge for insurance services if they chose to join the insurance pool later in life. The dissenters also argue that there are plenty of markets where non-purchasers can affect markets. For example, people who do not consume broccoli will affect the market for broccoli - that is the very nature of markets. While the emotional issues in health care are higher than the ones for broccoli - both are a demonstration of the responsive nature of markets and there the Constitutions has(in my opinion) wisely restricted the ability of Congress to compel behavior. "If all inactivity affecting commerce is commerce, commerce is everything." While I agree with the logic of the dissenter's concerns, I also recognize that Roberts' discussion that the Court should not be in the business of rewriting bad policy decisions. In this case, I think the Constitutional hazards in the statute, which was a 900 page document that few people read (which is one of the reasons I read the decision so carefully), were so substantial that the better move would have been to declare the entire Act unconstitutional. Contrary to Justice Ginsberg's rant about the limitations of the Court's power (one of the few areas where she seems to recognize limits on governmental authority), I believe the Court was well within its authority to throw the whole thing out.
The dissenters are passionate in their argument that the court cannot "rewrite what is not." A tax is a tax not a penalty. If it is a tax certain statutes apply.
One is drawn to whether the balance that I believe the Chief Justice tried to achieve was accomplished. I believe it was not. The key decisions in the case (which threw out the arguments on the Commerce and Necessary and Proper Clause) were agreed to by Roberts and the four dissenters. (And only partially by some of the other justices.) The consensus that Roberts sought was not achieved except on a very limited notion that the Medicaid penalty was excessive. Calling a penalty (which Congress declared the mandate to be) a tax does not change the fundamental effect of the mandate. My objection to the ACA was that it had the potential to increase demand for health care without doing anything serious about increasing supply. There is no reason to believe that the Solomon like decision of the Chief Justice did anything to correct the very real problems in our healthcare system. In the best of circumstances both the liberals and the conservatives in Congress would spend some time trying to figure out how to improve a defective statute (which Roberts says is not the Court's job to do). But what I fear is that the supporters of the ACA will claim victory and ignore the real problems of the Act (including the very real ones described in the four dissenter's opinion) and the opponents will try the symbolic but meaningless act of voting on repealing the statute. We deserve better.
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Parlor Banjos
When I retired I decided to do a couple of me things including getting reacquainted with my 5 string banjo. I have three 5 strings. A 1962 Muse (a custom made ODE) with a resonator, an open backed 1909 Washburn that was restored by Banjo Maker Extraordinaire Monte Hendricks and a Deering Parlor.
A parlor banjo is used for a couple of tasks. First, it can be a great starter banjo - at under $400 it is an inexpensive way to see if you like it. Second, it can be great for a kids banjo - the next is 19 frets and so a bit shorter and lighter. Third, with a soft case (called a gig bag) it can be used as a travel banjo. Light enough to carry around or stick in the back of your car.
There are a couple of parlor banjos made that I know about. Saga has one called the SSP-10 and Deering has a Goodtime Parlor. There are also some lesser known brands. For me, the Deering is the superior instrument. I got it as a birthday gift - so even better. I traded off the Saga when I got the Deering as a gift.
Parlor banjos are tuned one key up and this one has a very nice action. You can get up into high frets without problems. It has a soft touch. Because of the lack of a resonator and a slightly smaller head it does not put out as much sound as my other two banjos - so were I to use it in a band, I think I would figure out a way to amplify it. I have enjoyed this instrument a great deal and it compares quite favorably to either of my two other instruments even though it is only a fraction of the cost.
A parlor banjo is used for a couple of tasks. First, it can be a great starter banjo - at under $400 it is an inexpensive way to see if you like it. Second, it can be great for a kids banjo - the next is 19 frets and so a bit shorter and lighter. Third, with a soft case (called a gig bag) it can be used as a travel banjo. Light enough to carry around or stick in the back of your car.
There are a couple of parlor banjos made that I know about. Saga has one called the SSP-10 and Deering has a Goodtime Parlor. There are also some lesser known brands. For me, the Deering is the superior instrument. I got it as a birthday gift - so even better. I traded off the Saga when I got the Deering as a gift.
Parlor banjos are tuned one key up and this one has a very nice action. You can get up into high frets without problems. It has a soft touch. Because of the lack of a resonator and a slightly smaller head it does not put out as much sound as my other two banjos - so were I to use it in a band, I think I would figure out a way to amplify it. I have enjoyed this instrument a great deal and it compares quite favorably to either of my two other instruments even though it is only a fraction of the cost.
Monday, June 25, 2012
The State of Civic Discourse
On Saturday, my son posted the following photo on his Facebook page and I actually reposted it.
A long time friend from college immediately responded with "Carter was bad but not even close to the abject failure of GWB. If anything, Obama should have been far more forceful in pointing out the abyss he was handed."
What amuses me about the response is that I think it misses the point of the shot. Ronald Reagan came into the Presidency when interest rates were approaching 20% unemployment was around 10%, and inflation was out of control. One could argue (although I never would) that some of this was not the fault of the prior administration. But Reagan, after the campaign, went about the business of being President. He proposed a series of changes in federal fiscal policy including significant changes in the tax code. He also proposed a fairly significant increase in defense spending. Some commentators then and now argue that he raised the deficit to unacceptable levels. But the point is he took the job of president seriously.
The current president was swept in on a wave of concern about the prior one. Whether you agreed with his policies or not, and I did not agree with many of his ideas, during Bush's tenure we went through a major meltdown in the financial markets. Comparisons to the last years of the Carter Administration are instructive. Compared to 1980 interest rates were artificially being held down, based on a very accommodative monetary policy. Unemployment was in the same range as it was in the end of the Carter Administration. Inflation, at least the data that most people rely on, was not a problem, at least for now. But the deficit was growing. Not as fast as the first couple of years of Obama but the increases were pretty big.
Had I been elected (God Forbid!) I would have concentrated on coming up with a solution to the problem(s) facing our economy. In the President's view, part of that would be enacting the stimulus bill. There are plenty of arguments against Obama's stimulus (and the data seems to be accumulating that the most important result of all that dough being spent was a tremendous increase in the deficit and the accumulated debt of the US). But that was a one trick pony. Instead the President concentrated on getting the Affordable Care Act - without any significant effort to involve the opposition. In 1980-81 the Reagan team worked hard to identify democrats who could be broken off from the majority. Remember that Reagan faced a much less accommodating Congress than Obama in his first two years.
Dodd-Frank then tried to figure out how to improve the situation on financial regulation. But one could argue that the ACA fight diverted him from the more important question. AND at the same time he spent precious little time trying to get anyone on the other side to join him. The vote in 2010 was a reflection about how many Americans felt about that set of choices.
He also argued that all of his problems came from W. The point of the Facebook post was that Reagan did not bother assigning blame for his predicament. He was after all one who sought the job as it was.
Leaders lead. They don't spend a lot of time trying to explain why their policies were not as successful as they wanted them to be. They also don't spend a lot of time whining about the hard hand they were dealt. The point is, this President, whined a lot.
In 1980 there was a lot of effort by the President's supporters to do two things that this President has not not, besides the complaints about the horrible mess he was left in (which Reagan did not do). First, he looked for ways to build coalitions of people who did not agree with him on a lot of his policies. So he courted democratic members of congress who might support some or all of the issues. Second, he got a lot of scholarly support for his positions and tried hard to promote those ideas in a lot of venues - many of which were not sympathetic to his goals.
Nobody said being President is an easy job. Getting GOP members to cooperate may be tougher than it was in the first couple of years of the Reagan presidency. But had the President worked a bit harder at that task and a bit less time on detailing the tough hand he had been dealt, he, perhaps, would have been more successful.
I am a skeptic about the current brand of politicians who want to see if they can spin events. How about actually trying to build consensus?
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Newman!
In the old comedy series Seinfeld there was a character which Jerry often referred to as "Newman!" with a derogatory tone. Last week a Valedictorian in the small town of Newman generated some publicity which made me think of the reference.
Saul Tello is a success story. He graduated as a Valedictorian from a small high school in Newman - which is near Modesto. He chose to give his Valediction in Spanish. He had originally wanted to give the speech in both Spanish and English - but his principal told him they did not have enough time so to choose a language.
I think there were a couple of wrongs here. First, the principal should have recognized the teachable moment here. By adding a translator, so that Mr. Tello could make his speech but the English speakers in the audience could understand him, he would have been able to demonstrate that the possibility of an American success story was indeed possible. Second, Fox News Commentator Bill O'Reilly got into it and grumped about this speech. Doesn't O'Reilly recognize that this should be something that Americans should celebrate? He should have kept his mouth shut.
The Modesto Bee covered is thusly - http://www.modbee.com/2012/06/20/2247748/newman-students-speech-in-spanish.html
Congratulations to Tello. Shame on Bill O'Reilly.
Saul Tello is a success story. He graduated as a Valedictorian from a small high school in Newman - which is near Modesto. He chose to give his Valediction in Spanish. He had originally wanted to give the speech in both Spanish and English - but his principal told him they did not have enough time so to choose a language.
I think there were a couple of wrongs here. First, the principal should have recognized the teachable moment here. By adding a translator, so that Mr. Tello could make his speech but the English speakers in the audience could understand him, he would have been able to demonstrate that the possibility of an American success story was indeed possible. Second, Fox News Commentator Bill O'Reilly got into it and grumped about this speech. Doesn't O'Reilly recognize that this should be something that Americans should celebrate? He should have kept his mouth shut.
The Modesto Bee covered is thusly - http://www.modbee.com/2012/06/20/2247748/newman-students-speech-in-spanish.html
Congratulations to Tello. Shame on Bill O'Reilly.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Is Fast and Furious Watergate with Guns?
There are some amazing similarities between Watergate, the scandal that brought down a president, and Fast and Furious the absurd policy operation by the Obama Justice Department.
Oddly, Fast and Furious, until the assertion of Executive Privilege, had received scant media attention. It should have it represents a major breach in public policy. As I have traveled and worked in Mexico many Mexicans are furious about the program and its effects of escalating the drug related killings there.
Here is the story. The Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms division, either with explicit attention from the Attorney General or without it, released several thousand captured firearms to Mexican drug cartels. The theory (if one can actually claim there was much careful thought about this bozo idea) was that the ATF would then be able to track firearms movements among criminals. The guns were transferred and ultimately have resulted in a lot of killings in Mexico and the death of at least one US border official.
In both cases the Attorney General tried to maneuver out of the problem only to become mired more deeply. In both cases the AG seems to have been involved up to his hips at least. In both cases there was a denial of direct responsibility. I suspect both cases were begun by insiders, you know the kind, who walk around with tons of manila folders filled with stuff and have little or no sense of how things actually work in the real world.
One major difference is that in Watergate no one was killed and in Fast and Furious, at least one American was. Under any reasonable standard that should merit an intense review of what led up to the problems. It is hard to believe that the AG was not directly involved in approving this operation. It is less clear whether the President knew about this effort.
During his last stint in DC Holder was involved in some very questionable pardons at the end of the Clinton administration. Holder also has a long tradition of hostility to handguns. He was an Amicus filer in the attempt to uphold the DC ban on handguns.
One other consideration. Watergate disgraced a lot of people. It was an abuse of power. Fast and Furious evidences a disgraceful lack of judgment.
Oddly, Fast and Furious, until the assertion of Executive Privilege, had received scant media attention. It should have it represents a major breach in public policy. As I have traveled and worked in Mexico many Mexicans are furious about the program and its effects of escalating the drug related killings there.
Here is the story. The Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms division, either with explicit attention from the Attorney General or without it, released several thousand captured firearms to Mexican drug cartels. The theory (if one can actually claim there was much careful thought about this bozo idea) was that the ATF would then be able to track firearms movements among criminals. The guns were transferred and ultimately have resulted in a lot of killings in Mexico and the death of at least one US border official.
In both cases the Attorney General tried to maneuver out of the problem only to become mired more deeply. In both cases the AG seems to have been involved up to his hips at least. In both cases there was a denial of direct responsibility. I suspect both cases were begun by insiders, you know the kind, who walk around with tons of manila folders filled with stuff and have little or no sense of how things actually work in the real world.
One major difference is that in Watergate no one was killed and in Fast and Furious, at least one American was. Under any reasonable standard that should merit an intense review of what led up to the problems. It is hard to believe that the AG was not directly involved in approving this operation. It is less clear whether the President knew about this effort.
During his last stint in DC Holder was involved in some very questionable pardons at the end of the Clinton administration. Holder also has a long tradition of hostility to handguns. He was an Amicus filer in the attempt to uphold the DC ban on handguns.
One other consideration. Watergate disgraced a lot of people. It was an abuse of power. Fast and Furious evidences a disgraceful lack of judgment.
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
With no respect for this floozy, Andrea Mitchell is a liar
After Mrs. Grenspan misrepresented the remarks of Mitt Romney and she was caught the network tried to recover when it made the following comment the next day - "The RNC and the campaign both reached out to us saying that Romney had more to say about that visit -- about federal bureaucracy and innovation in the private sector," she said before the clip aired.
The simple response to a journalist who has been caught as a liar is to proclaim what she did. She lied. She got caught. She should be fired. But then MSNBC is already at the bottom of the ratings pile so who would care? For one, I would.
MSNBC issued a statement stating that it "did not edit anything out of order or out of sequence and at no time did we intend to deceive our viewers." Yeah Right, and Dan Rather was a responsible journalist. Distorting the context and substance of a candidate's remarks is unethical. But then this idiot does not understand anything about journalistic ethics.
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Andrea Mitchell, Disgraceful
Mrs. Alan Greenspan showed her bias again on one of the most under-watched cable networks. Mr. Romney was in Pennsylvania and made a point about how competition works. But Mitchell tried to make it out as Romney being out of touch with modern conveniences.
But here is how the clip actually took place -
His concluding remark ended on the idea that the feds could use some competition. In this age of instant video one wonders why this "journalist" would even attempt to lie. The best part about her attempt to influence the election is that probably very few people were watching.
Mitchell has a history of distorting the news and acting like a haughty aging Washington hostess. So we should not be surprised.
Sunday, June 17, 2012
The Imperial Presidency
From my perspective the President's announcement on Friday evidenced a severe disrespect for the processes of government. When Mr. Obama was running for President he promised to bring a new atmosphere to Washington. In the polarized world of Washington today and the 24 hour news cycle - that was not going to be an easy task. But repeatedly the President has given the feint of trying to work with Congress and then simply demanded that they adopt his proposal(s).
The issue of immigration and how to treat the portion of undocumented or illegal immigrants is a tough one. I am not at all happy with the responses that Mr. Romney has proposed thus far but there is a difference between being a candidate and being president. Mr. Obama could have said "we need to come up with solutions and stop the gridlock and if you elect me I will say my way or the highway." Had he done that I suspect he would not have been elected. But immediately on both the stimulus and the health care bill he immediately, with his allies in Congress, moved to limit options to ones he proposed.
The best presidents have been able to figure out how to work with the other side. The weakest ones claim, as Jimmy Carter did, that the country is in a malaise or some other four dollar word which evidence a laziness that is unfitting the President. If the President had any integrity he would have laid out a proposal and then done the hard work of getting both his party and the GOP into discussions to come up with a solution that made sense. Many of his ideas are sound but if he lacks the personal fortitude to fight for his ideas, he does not deserve to be re-elected. Dana Milbank, who has often been a cheerleader for Obama on the pages of the Washington Post said about the President's economic speech "I had high hopes for President Obama's speech on the economy. But instead of going to Ohio on Thursday with a compelling plan for the future, he gave Americans a falsehood wrapped in a fallacy." That seems to be what the President and his advisors think will be a winning strategy. If he is successful he will not have a mandate. So it seems like a foolish bunch of politics.
The issue of immigration and how to treat the portion of undocumented or illegal immigrants is a tough one. I am not at all happy with the responses that Mr. Romney has proposed thus far but there is a difference between being a candidate and being president. Mr. Obama could have said "we need to come up with solutions and stop the gridlock and if you elect me I will say my way or the highway." Had he done that I suspect he would not have been elected. But immediately on both the stimulus and the health care bill he immediately, with his allies in Congress, moved to limit options to ones he proposed.
The best presidents have been able to figure out how to work with the other side. The weakest ones claim, as Jimmy Carter did, that the country is in a malaise or some other four dollar word which evidence a laziness that is unfitting the President. If the President had any integrity he would have laid out a proposal and then done the hard work of getting both his party and the GOP into discussions to come up with a solution that made sense. Many of his ideas are sound but if he lacks the personal fortitude to fight for his ideas, he does not deserve to be re-elected. Dana Milbank, who has often been a cheerleader for Obama on the pages of the Washington Post said about the President's economic speech "I had high hopes for President Obama's speech on the economy. But instead of going to Ohio on Thursday with a compelling plan for the future, he gave Americans a falsehood wrapped in a fallacy." That seems to be what the President and his advisors think will be a winning strategy. If he is successful he will not have a mandate. So it seems like a foolish bunch of politics.
When I was an undergraduate I had a professor who believed that James McGregor Burns, who is a big believer in presidential authority, was a smart guy. I've always reacted negatively to the thesis because I think the best presidents understood the inherent tensions in the systems as evidence in Federalist #14 and #51. But even Burns describes a key element of transformational leadership as the ability to engage others. So far the President either does not understand or does not care about the critical role in his job. Had he lived up to his original promises, I suspect he would be in a lot stronger position than he is today.
Friday, June 15, 2012
Nullum prandium non es gratuitum
In a recent article for the lefty British paper the Guardian, Timothy Haidt wondered why the working class often vote conservative. He muses "Why on Earth would a working-class person ever vote for a conservative candidate? This question has obsessed the American left since Ronald Reagan first captured the votes of so many union members, farmers, urban Catholics and other relatively powerless people – the so-called "Reagan Democrats". Isn't the Republican party the party of big business? Don't the Democrats stand up for the little guy, and try to redistribute the wealth downwards?"
He explains that most of the left believes in a duping theory. (That the working class are duped into voting against their self interest.) After all who would not accept all that free stuff? But Haidt comes to some pretty sound conclusions. He argues that people may well understand that all that "free" stuff comes at a cost (Nullum prandium non es gratuitum). Language counts here. Equality, which assumes that outcomes will always be equal, is a false promise. Try as I might, when I was younger it was unlikely that because of my size I would be equal on the basketball court.
Haidt concludes that the working class vote readily for these ideas not because of a denial of their self interest but they are voting for their moral interest. Evidently, another explanation is that conservative voters learned something about self-control when they were young.
He explains that most of the left believes in a duping theory. (That the working class are duped into voting against their self interest.) After all who would not accept all that free stuff? But Haidt comes to some pretty sound conclusions. He argues that people may well understand that all that "free" stuff comes at a cost (Nullum prandium non es gratuitum). Language counts here. Equality, which assumes that outcomes will always be equal, is a false promise. Try as I might, when I was younger it was unlikely that because of my size I would be equal on the basketball court.
Haidt concludes that the working class vote readily for these ideas not because of a denial of their self interest but they are voting for their moral interest. Evidently, another explanation is that conservative voters learned something about self-control when they were young.
Saturday, June 09, 2012
Hats, Rabbits and Campaigns
In 1976 President Ford in a debate with future President Carter claimed that Poland was close to free. While there were many things that may have doomed his re-election bid this may have been the final straw. Yesterday in a press conference President Obama may have had a similar moment - he commented
"The truth of the matter is that, as I said, we've created 4.3 million jobs over the last 27 months, over 800,000 just this year alone. The private sector is doing fine. Where we're seeing weaknesses in our economy have to do with state and local government—oftentimes, cuts initiated by governors or mayors who are not getting the kind of help that they have in the past from the federal government and who don't have the same kind of flexibility as the federal government in dealing with fewer revenues coming in.
"And so, if Republicans want to be helpful, if they really want to move forward and put people back to work, what they should be thinking about is, how do we help state and local governments and how do we help the construction industry." (Highlights added)
What struck me and a lot of other people was how fundamentally wrong the President's perceptions are on the economy.
"We've created 4.3 million jobs" - No economy, even this moribund one, is static. Based on population growth of our society, one would expect that the economy would create jobs. The problem is that this economy is not creating enough jobs. 8.2% unemployment (you will remember that when the first stimulus was adopted the President's advisors argued that if we passed the measure unemployment would not rise to 8%). Half the recent college graduates in the country are unemployed or underemployed. The weak jobs numbers earlier in the week are a clear testament to the Administration's failures in this area.
"The private sector is doing fine. Where we're seeing weaknesses in our economy have to do with state and local government.." - So the President believes that state and local government employment is the driver of the economy? Part of the reason for the declines is that a lot of the stimulus artificially increased the number of public employees. The President goes on to blame fewer revenues coming in on this situation - but what would he say about 40% of the federal budget coming from borrowed money?
"And so if Republicans want to be helpful, if they really want to move forward and put people back to work, what they should be thinking about is, how do we help state and local governments..." I have left off the sop to the construction industry because the President's conception of helping the construction industry is in "shovel ready" projects. We've tried that and it did not work. The way to build the economy is to enlarge the public sector? Really??? So how is growth in the Euro zone?
Many people are appalled by these comments. I was pleased. Although the President tried to cover his blunder at the end of the day - expect his words to come back to him many times before November. In 2008, for a lot of reasons, the President was able to shield his views on the economy. Yesterday, he presented a clear and unambiguous view of how the economy should grow - a higher fraction of resources being dedicated to the public sector. It is pretty clear that in all of his education the President never thought much about supply and demand and other basic economic concepts. That lack of knowledge is troubling. As he tried to do yesterday afternoon he will try to get the rabbit back in the hat. This time I do not think that will be possible.
Wednesday, June 06, 2012
Parallel Paranoia
Occasionally I will listen to left wing radio for chuckles. As I was driving back from a board meeting this afternoon I listened to Randi Rhoads try to explain away the victory of Scott Walker in Wisconsin.
Rhoads is one of the best cheap shot artists around. She consistently claimed in the half hour I listened to her that the Governor is under investigation (no credible news source can confirm that and the one story in a Google search suggests that the Governor himself initiated the Grand Jury like proceeding) and that Walker continued a deficit brought on by his predecessor (according to David Brooks of the New York Times Walker "did turn a $3.6 billion deficit into a $150 million surplus, albeit with the help of a tax collection surge. He did make it possible for willing school districts to save money on health insurance so they could spend it on students." The PEW Center for the States counts it the same way.)
But what struck me as particularly amusing about her rants was two things. First, left wing and right wing radio have very similar sponsors (Gold sellers, stamps.com, a testosterone and female hormone replacement pills). Second, both have their dark villans (which are different) but they use remarkably similar adjectives to describe them. Rhoads boogie man was "billionaires" - who spent eight times what her poor underfunded candidate, the Milwaukee mayor, had. Interesting but wrong. There seems to have been a funding advantage for Walker's side although most people are still sorting out the dough. It is clear that organized labor contributed some pretty huge checks.
But third, lout mouthed (and I intentionally changed the D to a T) people like Rhoads and Michael Savage on the other side, tend to disrespect the idea of civil discourse. Ultimately the way we will work ourselves out of the problems we face on public budgets is to begin to a) look at the facts and agree on them and b) then begin to quit calling each other names.
Tom Sowell, in a book called A Conflict of Visions, argued that the left and the right actually have different meanings for the same words (so for example Equality means something different between the two sides). In this case while the language may be the same, their meanings are different. In the long term that does not help us out of our fiscal mess.
Rhoads is one of the best cheap shot artists around. She consistently claimed in the half hour I listened to her that the Governor is under investigation (no credible news source can confirm that and the one story in a Google search suggests that the Governor himself initiated the Grand Jury like proceeding) and that Walker continued a deficit brought on by his predecessor (according to David Brooks of the New York Times Walker "did turn a $3.6 billion deficit into a $150 million surplus, albeit with the help of a tax collection surge. He did make it possible for willing school districts to save money on health insurance so they could spend it on students." The PEW Center for the States counts it the same way.)
But what struck me as particularly amusing about her rants was two things. First, left wing and right wing radio have very similar sponsors (Gold sellers, stamps.com, a testosterone and female hormone replacement pills). Second, both have their dark villans (which are different) but they use remarkably similar adjectives to describe them. Rhoads boogie man was "billionaires" - who spent eight times what her poor underfunded candidate, the Milwaukee mayor, had. Interesting but wrong. There seems to have been a funding advantage for Walker's side although most people are still sorting out the dough. It is clear that organized labor contributed some pretty huge checks.
But third, lout mouthed (and I intentionally changed the D to a T) people like Rhoads and Michael Savage on the other side, tend to disrespect the idea of civil discourse. Ultimately the way we will work ourselves out of the problems we face on public budgets is to begin to a) look at the facts and agree on them and b) then begin to quit calling each other names.
Tom Sowell, in a book called A Conflict of Visions, argued that the left and the right actually have different meanings for the same words (so for example Equality means something different between the two sides). In this case while the language may be the same, their meanings are different. In the long term that does not help us out of our fiscal mess.
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