Techdirt did a post today which suggests that the tear downs of the iPhone by Portelligent and one other company are probably a bit off the mark. Business week and a couple of other sources suggested that the margins on the phone, based on parts costs, were in the range of 55%. Both of the companies purchased an iPhone and then broke it down to look at the components and then costed out the individual pieces. But as Techdirt commented those estimates may wildly out of kilter. They correctly point out that a good part of the cost of the phone at this point involves the development cost of the phone (all of the bells and whistles of the phone did not just magically appear when the components were assembled).
The second issue on margins came in an NYT article on the people who bought an iPhone thinking they would be able to arb the device for a healthy profit. With dancing profits in their heads several buyers got two phones or had a friend stand in line and then thought they would be able to sell the thing for a hefty markup. Some buyers of the Nintendo WII were able to secure the game box and then offer it on E-Bay or Craig's list for a healthy profit. The Times pointed out that Apple has done a pretty good job so far of managing supply (although it also points out that the AT&T stores have a pretty consistent shortage of product). The Times compared this product more to a Harry Potter book (great to be the first one on the block with a copy) than a WII. That conclusion depends on whether the supply chain gets bumpy in the coming weeks.
The proto-iPhonearbers have the added burden of carrying cost, which the WII arber does not have. When you sign up for the phone you also have to sign up for a service plan which might run $60 a month or more. A few months of holding that could cut seriously into your potential profits.
When the Newton was pulled from the market I was amazed at how quickly Apple pulled the device out of the supply channel. I had a friend in Mexico who lost his Newton two days before the public announcement of Apple's withdrawal and called me to see if I could find a replacement. I began a web search and could not find a new one on any of the normal electronic sources.
Thursday, July 05, 2007
Wednesday, July 04, 2007
More thoughts on the iPhone and its markets
Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution did a post this morning which casually mentioned that among the things he could do is type on this iPhone (He claims he cannot drive stick and some other things which I found curious).
One of the responses, from a Sociologist from Arizona named Kieran Healy made the following comment - "Based on that first comment, I will be interested to see how many MR readers will find the iPhone awakens their inner Galbraithian, Marxian or Veblenian economist, discount the judgment of hundreds of thousands of consumers, and insist that advertisers have duped all those buyers into overpaying for a product that allegedly has perfectly good market substitutes; that the masses just have the wrong set of preferences when it comes to assessing phones because necessary feature x is missing; or that people only want this new product because it will impress their friends. Perhaps EP approaches will offer a way to save face, because I'm pretty sure having shiny objects on one's person was adaptive in the EEA." (By the way his post on the iPhone is pretty good and also pretty funny - his comment on the Sprint counter campaign was spot on.)
I responded that most of the "experts" on the iPhone had been proven wrong. Many suggested that the iPhone, for whatever non-feature, would fail. It obviously did not. But in another post on Marginal Revolution someone said the initial success is based on a prime sub-group inclined to accept it. That got me to thinking who that sub-group actually would be. There are two possible that come to mind immediately. The first would be the Apple diehards. In the Amelio and Spindler era they were called Macintosh Evangelistas. I was an original Evangelista. Just as there are diehard Windows supporters there are also diehards for Apple - indeed there are even a small group who try constantly to berate Apple supporters. The second most likely group would be the techno-junkies who want to stay at the bleeding edge of technology. Both groups would create an initial uptick of people who would buy the product - pretty much without thinking much about the preliminary reviews. Galbraith claimed in The Affluent Society that business somehow manipulated demand but like most of what he wrote it was about 180ยบ off. I think the most accurate quote on Galbraith's economics came from George Stigler who said (on a picture for Milton Friedman) "All great economists are tall. There are two exceptions: John Kenneth Galbraith and Milton Friedman." (Galbraith stood almost 7 feet.)
But I would argue that there is also something else going on. If you look at the development of the market for iPods - the initial buyers were probably from the two groups mentioned above. All of a sudden, however, people began to see new ways to use the device. That happened with the original Macintosh (with WSYWIG word processing and with Desktop publishing). In the iPod cycle people began to think about linking blogs and broadcasting so we created Pod (and Vod) casts. My suspicion is that as the market for iPhones begins to elaborate that those kinds of new uses will also emerge. The linkage of full fledged browsing with maps and a personal contact list and calendar creates a pretty wild set of possibilities.
The most interesting thing to watch in the coming months is whether the kinds of new uses that have evolved with the iPod and the original Mac will also develop with the iPhone. For now, the cool factor is still there. I get asked at least once a day to show it off. But as happened with the iPod, if the thing begins to develop we may see some very interesting developments.
One of the responses, from a Sociologist from Arizona named Kieran Healy made the following comment - "Based on that first comment, I will be interested to see how many MR readers will find the iPhone awakens their inner Galbraithian, Marxian or Veblenian economist, discount the judgment of hundreds of thousands of consumers, and insist that advertisers have duped all those buyers into overpaying for a product that allegedly has perfectly good market substitutes; that the masses just have the wrong set of preferences when it comes to assessing phones because necessary feature x is missing; or that people only want this new product because it will impress their friends. Perhaps EP approaches will offer a way to save face, because I'm pretty sure having shiny objects on one's person was adaptive in the EEA." (By the way his post on the iPhone is pretty good and also pretty funny - his comment on the Sprint counter campaign was spot on.)
I responded that most of the "experts" on the iPhone had been proven wrong. Many suggested that the iPhone, for whatever non-feature, would fail. It obviously did not. But in another post on Marginal Revolution someone said the initial success is based on a prime sub-group inclined to accept it. That got me to thinking who that sub-group actually would be. There are two possible that come to mind immediately. The first would be the Apple diehards. In the Amelio and Spindler era they were called Macintosh Evangelistas. I was an original Evangelista. Just as there are diehard Windows supporters there are also diehards for Apple - indeed there are even a small group who try constantly to berate Apple supporters. The second most likely group would be the techno-junkies who want to stay at the bleeding edge of technology. Both groups would create an initial uptick of people who would buy the product - pretty much without thinking much about the preliminary reviews. Galbraith claimed in The Affluent Society that business somehow manipulated demand but like most of what he wrote it was about 180ยบ off. I think the most accurate quote on Galbraith's economics came from George Stigler who said (on a picture for Milton Friedman) "All great economists are tall. There are two exceptions: John Kenneth Galbraith and Milton Friedman." (Galbraith stood almost 7 feet.)
But I would argue that there is also something else going on. If you look at the development of the market for iPods - the initial buyers were probably from the two groups mentioned above. All of a sudden, however, people began to see new ways to use the device. That happened with the original Macintosh (with WSYWIG word processing and with Desktop publishing). In the iPod cycle people began to think about linking blogs and broadcasting so we created Pod (and Vod) casts. My suspicion is that as the market for iPhones begins to elaborate that those kinds of new uses will also emerge. The linkage of full fledged browsing with maps and a personal contact list and calendar creates a pretty wild set of possibilities.
The most interesting thing to watch in the coming months is whether the kinds of new uses that have evolved with the iPod and the original Mac will also develop with the iPhone. For now, the cool factor is still there. I get asked at least once a day to show it off. But as happened with the iPod, if the thing begins to develop we may see some very interesting developments.
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Global Warming and You
An Ipsos poll for the BBC on Global Warming shows some remarkable good sense. I think the results look to be accurate.
More than half of the respondents "have many doubts about exactly how serious it really is and believe it has been over-hyped." They question whether some of the motivations for the alarm offered by scientists is motivated by self interest or money. The poll found that several other things were more important to the respondents including terrorism, graffiti, crime and dog mess.
In my mind all of that shows remarkable good sense.
More than half of the respondents "have many doubts about exactly how serious it really is and believe it has been over-hyped." They question whether some of the motivations for the alarm offered by scientists is motivated by self interest or money. The poll found that several other things were more important to the respondents including terrorism, graffiti, crime and dog mess.
In my mind all of that shows remarkable good sense.
Baseball and Church
The last three nights of Rivercats baseball have been interesting ones. Our new catcher has hit a couple of homers for his debut. Kaz Tadano had a marvelous outing last night. Andrew Brown has looked good in two closing appearances.
But as I was at the stadium last night I was struck with some of the things that make every baseball game almost like a church service. The processional is like the national anthem. During the season there are some very good performances of the anthem and some less than good. Last night the woman who sang was very good. Also before the game we get the order of service - where players are introduced in their batting order. Another pre-ritual is the first pitch. In this stadium there are always a couple. Then there is the invitation - at the Rivercats, after the introductions and the anthem. A young kid, in this instance, invites us "Let's play ball" (Those three words we all want to hear.)
Then the game gets underway. There are all sorts of things that happen in every game. At some points the congregation is asked to be very involved, at others not so much. Many of these involvements do not always come in the same order. Inevitably the people in blue will flub something and the congregation is asked to join in - almost like the responses in the lessons. Some games, like some services, there are more opportunities to participate. But then comes the Seventh Inning - anticipation greets the away team for that inning because all the congregation knows what is coming. In the middle of the inning, almost like communion, everyone gets involved - a group helps to lead the crowd through - but everyone knows the words and almost everyone participates.
At the end of the game, people begin to peel off. But if you stay for the dismissal, the home fans of the congregation will get up to participate in the last out. All of those things give comfort to the regulars and even to those who come to the stadium from another place. Baseball, like church, is a group exercise. While you can watch it on TV or even listen to it, it is better when you can join your fellow parishioners right there in the church.
But as I was at the stadium last night I was struck with some of the things that make every baseball game almost like a church service. The processional is like the national anthem. During the season there are some very good performances of the anthem and some less than good. Last night the woman who sang was very good. Also before the game we get the order of service - where players are introduced in their batting order. Another pre-ritual is the first pitch. In this stadium there are always a couple. Then there is the invitation - at the Rivercats, after the introductions and the anthem. A young kid, in this instance, invites us "Let's play ball" (Those three words we all want to hear.)
Then the game gets underway. There are all sorts of things that happen in every game. At some points the congregation is asked to be very involved, at others not so much. Many of these involvements do not always come in the same order. Inevitably the people in blue will flub something and the congregation is asked to join in - almost like the responses in the lessons. Some games, like some services, there are more opportunities to participate. But then comes the Seventh Inning - anticipation greets the away team for that inning because all the congregation knows what is coming. In the middle of the inning, almost like communion, everyone gets involved - a group helps to lead the crowd through - but everyone knows the words and almost everyone participates.
At the end of the game, people begin to peel off. But if you stay for the dismissal, the home fans of the congregation will get up to participate in the last out. All of those things give comfort to the regulars and even to those who come to the stadium from another place. Baseball, like church, is a group exercise. While you can watch it on TV or even listen to it, it is better when you can join your fellow parishioners right there in the church.
Monday, July 02, 2007
More on iPhone sales
According to Apple Insider the iPhone over the weekend beat the previous record sales for an Apple product by huge margins. Analyst Shaw Wu of American Technology Research estimated that Apple sold 250,000 units in two days (about half of what Piper Jaffrey estimated) - even with this lower estimate that compares to 59,000 units per day for the initial run of the Nano versus 125,000 for the iPhone. The Nano sold 1 million units in 17 days. Wu estimates that Apple will sell 2 million iPhones for 2007 and 7 million in 2008. That is more than double his original estimate for 2007.
The Apple Insider poll on iPhone purchases amounted to 85% for the larger model which is slightly under the PJ estimate but still pretty close for an unscientific poll. As of this evening there were about 10 California Apple stores with product and a lot more red dots were showing up around the country (meaning no sales tomorrow).
Goldman Sachs suggested that Apple sold as many as 700,000 units over the weekend.
There is also a developing body of iPhone Aplets or small programs which can be found at iLounge included so far is an ap that will search for the cheapest gas in an area. My guess is that the variety will proliferate quickly over the next couple of weeks.
The Apple Insider poll on iPhone purchases amounted to 85% for the larger model which is slightly under the PJ estimate but still pretty close for an unscientific poll. As of this evening there were about 10 California Apple stores with product and a lot more red dots were showing up around the country (meaning no sales tomorrow).
Goldman Sachs suggested that Apple sold as many as 700,000 units over the weekend.
There is also a developing body of iPhone Aplets or small programs which can be found at iLounge included so far is an ap that will search for the cheapest gas in an area. My guess is that the variety will proliferate quickly over the next couple of weeks.
Best line on the iPhone
On June 30 Lev Grossman of TIME had the best line so far on the iPhone.
"Somewhere in the unwritten amendments to the U.S. Constitution it is stipulated that every gadget reviewer is entitled to his or her personal iPhone quibble" - he then goes on to review those "concerns" and he concludes after reviewing this or that feature that was not included -
"Cold fusion would be great too, but you know what? Nobody cares. Steve Jobs has said, repeatedly, that this is the best iPod that Apple has ever made, and it is. It's also the best phone that anybody has ever made."
"Somewhere in the unwritten amendments to the U.S. Constitution it is stipulated that every gadget reviewer is entitled to his or her personal iPhone quibble" - he then goes on to review those "concerns" and he concludes after reviewing this or that feature that was not included -
"Cold fusion would be great too, but you know what? Nobody cares. Steve Jobs has said, repeatedly, that this is the best iPod that Apple has ever made, and it is. It's also the best phone that anybody has ever made."
Things I would like to see in firmware updates
This third post is about the things that I would have liked to see on the initial iPhone but could be useful in updates. From my perspective they are minor.
Before I get into my top 2 plus one that seems to be common for others - there is a good post which compares the Nokia N95 which some people have suggested is the competition. That post on Scobelizer says the following - "The iPhone is superior in almost every way to the Nokia N95. The battery life is better. The contact management is better. The Web browser is better. The photo taking experience is better. The screen is better. The wireless management is better." The writer claims the only thing that keeps him on the N95 is a higher level of pixels on the Nokia device. He puts a comparison photo on the post to show the difference - looks to me like the iPhone photo could be easily color corrected in any photo program.
#1 - Print capability - this is a digital device, and thus most of what you will use it for is digital things but it would be useful to be able to print out some things. Currently, anything you create which you want to print (notes for example) gets emailed and then printed on your regular computer.
#2 - iRooster and other tune utilities - My favorite piece of software in the last couple of years was a small product called iRooster. iRooster I initially bought it because of the ad - turn your $3000 laptop into a $5 alarm clock. (Actually it is a $10 alarm clock because the software is $9.95.) What it does is allow you to use your tunes as an alarm clock - your laptop will wake up and play the song. The software is intuitive and bulletproof - with a couple of more features than just the alarm clock. Right now the iPhone only allows the iPod to be used as a music player. I would have liked (and expect relatively soon to see) an ability to apply different ring tones, especially sound files (my RAZR uses the Guiness characters to say - "your phone is ringing" - I expect that will be a simple fix.
#3 - Email for some users - I use a lot of web based mail and so am fine with the way the mail program works but some corporate users cannot access their home systems unless they are bounced in some way.
That is a pretty short list for a new device. I am sure there are things that will come up as I use it. But based on discussions with the developer community I expect that in six months many of the issues I have not thought of will be handled.
#4 - Other comments - Some have suggested that a removable battery and memory upgrade would be useful. I have commented on the battery issue earlier (I think it is a non-issue) but the upgrade depends on what one will use the device for - I think I will not drop my laptop - so memory here means simply that issues like being able to load my 80 gig iPod on to my phone is not an issue. But some quibblers might argue differently.
Before I get into my top 2 plus one that seems to be common for others - there is a good post which compares the Nokia N95 which some people have suggested is the competition. That post on Scobelizer says the following - "The iPhone is superior in almost every way to the Nokia N95. The battery life is better. The contact management is better. The Web browser is better. The photo taking experience is better. The screen is better. The wireless management is better." The writer claims the only thing that keeps him on the N95 is a higher level of pixels on the Nokia device. He puts a comparison photo on the post to show the difference - looks to me like the iPhone photo could be easily color corrected in any photo program.
#1 - Print capability - this is a digital device, and thus most of what you will use it for is digital things but it would be useful to be able to print out some things. Currently, anything you create which you want to print (notes for example) gets emailed and then printed on your regular computer.
#2 - iRooster and other tune utilities - My favorite piece of software in the last couple of years was a small product called iRooster. iRooster I initially bought it because of the ad - turn your $3000 laptop into a $5 alarm clock. (Actually it is a $10 alarm clock because the software is $9.95.) What it does is allow you to use your tunes as an alarm clock - your laptop will wake up and play the song. The software is intuitive and bulletproof - with a couple of more features than just the alarm clock. Right now the iPhone only allows the iPod to be used as a music player. I would have liked (and expect relatively soon to see) an ability to apply different ring tones, especially sound files (my RAZR uses the Guiness characters to say - "your phone is ringing" - I expect that will be a simple fix.
#3 - Email for some users - I use a lot of web based mail and so am fine with the way the mail program works but some corporate users cannot access their home systems unless they are bounced in some way.
That is a pretty short list for a new device. I am sure there are things that will come up as I use it. But based on discussions with the developer community I expect that in six months many of the issues I have not thought of will be handled.
#4 - Other comments - Some have suggested that a removable battery and memory upgrade would be useful. I have commented on the battery issue earlier (I think it is a non-issue) but the upgrade depends on what one will use the device for - I think I will not drop my laptop - so memory here means simply that issues like being able to load my 80 gig iPod on to my phone is not an issue. But some quibblers might argue differently.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
An interesting pattern on iPhone sales
When I checked the iPhone availability tonight I found that only two locations in California (both in SF) had product for tomorrow. And the red dots (those stores that are sold out at this point) were predominantly on the West Coast or in tech centers although if you want an iPhone tomorrow Colorado and Oregon look like good places to find one.
There are also stories about people having a problem in activating their phone. (As noted in an earlier post it took me about 20 minutes to activate and to synch). I changed a phone number (switched a number from an existing AT&T phone) and that was no problem and I thought the AT&T screens to walk you through it were very helpful. I will be interested to see the sales figures in the first full week. According to the contractor who did the activations, Synchronoss, they were pleased with the process and results. Even with a very small percentage of problems in this process unhappy customers can be created and CNET has made an effort to compile those. It does not hurt that one of their correspondents, Declan McCullagh, took 39 hours to activate. One other writer griped that without activation the product was not usable. There is some logic to that, since a good part of the utility comes from the synchronization, but it could produce some mighty grumpy customers.
Piper Jaffray estimated, according to CNET, that there were about 500,000 sales of the phone from 6 PM Friday through close of business Sunday. Based at least on their estimates total sales for that first weekend far exceeded expectations. PJ had suggested that 200,000 phones might be sold. 84% of the Apple stores still had product - although as mentioned above that is not true uniformly. Finally, PJ also suggests that at least in New York, Minneapolis and San Francisco 95% of the buyers purchased the larger model (8 gigs). From my discussions with my AT&T store on Saturday and the Apple Store on Sunday, that figure may not have held up in Sacramento but a majority of buyers wanted the larger model. The LA Times said this morning that most of the 1800 AT&T stores sold out by the end of the weekend.
One other comment - Apple offered two workshops in their Arden Fair store today - it was very helpful - about a hundred tips in about 45 minutes. The person who walked us through the "advanced" course was very good and had a lot of good ideas. The session seemed also to bring around a couple of customers. The bar with the iPhone seemed to have a lot of traffic around it.
There are also stories about people having a problem in activating their phone. (As noted in an earlier post it took me about 20 minutes to activate and to synch). I changed a phone number (switched a number from an existing AT&T phone) and that was no problem and I thought the AT&T screens to walk you through it were very helpful. I will be interested to see the sales figures in the first full week. According to the contractor who did the activations, Synchronoss, they were pleased with the process and results. Even with a very small percentage of problems in this process unhappy customers can be created and CNET has made an effort to compile those. It does not hurt that one of their correspondents, Declan McCullagh, took 39 hours to activate. One other writer griped that without activation the product was not usable. There is some logic to that, since a good part of the utility comes from the synchronization, but it could produce some mighty grumpy customers.
Piper Jaffray estimated, according to CNET, that there were about 500,000 sales of the phone from 6 PM Friday through close of business Sunday. Based at least on their estimates total sales for that first weekend far exceeded expectations. PJ had suggested that 200,000 phones might be sold. 84% of the Apple stores still had product - although as mentioned above that is not true uniformly. Finally, PJ also suggests that at least in New York, Minneapolis and San Francisco 95% of the buyers purchased the larger model (8 gigs). From my discussions with my AT&T store on Saturday and the Apple Store on Sunday, that figure may not have held up in Sacramento but a majority of buyers wanted the larger model. The LA Times said this morning that most of the 1800 AT&T stores sold out by the end of the weekend.
One other comment - Apple offered two workshops in their Arden Fair store today - it was very helpful - about a hundred tips in about 45 minutes. The person who walked us through the "advanced" course was very good and had a lot of good ideas. The session seemed also to bring around a couple of customers. The bar with the iPhone seemed to have a lot of traffic around it.
It's real - a preliminary review of the iPhone
I bought an iPhone yesterday and despite all the hype, it's real. On Friday I looked at the line at my AT&T store and decided to go to the baseball game. Saturday morning I was able to get into the same store and get out in about 20 minutes. In the time I was at that store there were four other iPhones sold but I think Apple got in a good supply. I got the 8 gig - at $25 a gig for the larger phone it seemed a natural.
First to the criticisms. In my mind a lot of the criticisms are not on point. Speed of the network - this is not a heavy web surfing device it is designed just like a Blackberry to do light surfing (for example I looked up Chad Harville's record on Baseball Cube last night at the game). Its primary web functions are mail and maps and for both of these functions the speed is OK. It matches the speed of the Verizon network which I used until yesterday for data - and I suspect over time that will speed up. Although I still believe this is not a heavy web device. No Video in the Camera - Again, I plan to use this device for a Smartphone. If I want photos I will use a camera. Lacks a Keyboard - As the day progressed I found I got better at using it. I am not going to write a paper on this and will probably use if for short messages and for that it is fine. Ring Tones - The inability to use your own ring tones is true (although Apple supplies a lot) but I suspect it will be corrected by some software writer soon. I also hope iRooster gets ported to the iPhone - that alarm clock with an attitude would be a great addition. Battery - One NYT Commentator ripped the new phone for lack of a replaceable battery. I have used Ipods since they came out. None has ever experienced a battery problem. The battery life seems to be as advertised so I am not sure what the rip was here.
The obvious plusses - Intuitive Functions - The instruction manual is very short. The sign up with AT&T is simple. Synching is very easy. Switching functions is simple. The map function is a treasure that I am sure to use a lot. Accelerometer - This works as advertised and I think it will be used a lot. The Screen - you have to see it - pictures are excellent, videos are crisp - well done.
I have one other comment - about the network. I have been a Cingular customer since I left Tmobile. I have used their network all over the country and despite Verizon's claims I have found it to be consistently strong almost anywhere I go. I have also used Verizon including their data network. AT&T seems to have done a lot to make the process of signing up (the fee adds $20 a month for unlimited web functions and 200 SMS messages. That seems like a good deal - comparable to the $20 for T-mobile's access for customers to hotspots but with more functionality. The integration with iTunes was a good match - it allowed me to download my calendars and contacts, photos and music, in about 10 minutes (for the first time).
Tips - I found, at least for me, that the Horizontal view is much better for typing and for web browsing. And because of the efficiency of the ability to change modes, that is a snap.
All in all this is a very good new product.
3 nights - 3 results
On Thursday night the Rivercats set a new record - their game against the Fresno Grizzlies lasted 16 innings and unfortunately they lost. I was coming back from the East Coast and spent from 7 AM (EDT) until 9 (PDT) (remember to add the three hours) getting across the country. So when I got into the car I thought I would listen to the end of the game - indeed I did but it took a couple of hours more for that to happen. The Cats were fully in control going into the ninth only to give up a bunch of runs and tie it up to go into extra innings. They had a couple of chances to score through the next 7 innings and simply did not come through.
On Friday, we got to go back to the ballpark. We started out well against the Grizzlies then in the fifth it fell apart. Another record. The Grizzlies scored 11 runs in one inning. It looked for a while like the three stooges were playing for the Cats. I debated about whether I wanted to go get an iPhone (at the AT&T store in the Downtown Mall) but stayed until the ninth.
On Saturday, the Cats debuted a new pitcher named Michael Madsen. Lord knows we need some pitching. A good part of the changes in roster (112 at this point) has been to move pitchers up or down. Remember Ron Flores is still up. Madsen pitched a good solid first outing. What was impressive was almost eight innings, six Ks and only four hits in his time on the mound. Jermaine Van Buren, the first reliever was not as impressive but then the Cats brought in Andrew Brown who was able to close the Sidewinders down. Also impressive was Landon Powell, the new catcher, who homered in his second at bat - if he keeps this up it will be impressive! (that was his second homer). Barton finally broke his hitting streak but that was an impressive run, nonetheless.
It is odd that we had such problems with the Grizzlies - they are usually a reliable safety net - but in this series we had trouble with them in two of the three games. More importantly over this season they have the advantage. We stand at .542 with on up on Fresno and no longer the strongest record in the league. Our last 10 we were 4-6 so we will need to get back on track. But with the number of roster moves it is hard to imagine how a team can jell.
On Friday, we got to go back to the ballpark. We started out well against the Grizzlies then in the fifth it fell apart. Another record. The Grizzlies scored 11 runs in one inning. It looked for a while like the three stooges were playing for the Cats. I debated about whether I wanted to go get an iPhone (at the AT&T store in the Downtown Mall) but stayed until the ninth.
On Saturday, the Cats debuted a new pitcher named Michael Madsen. Lord knows we need some pitching. A good part of the changes in roster (112 at this point) has been to move pitchers up or down. Remember Ron Flores is still up. Madsen pitched a good solid first outing. What was impressive was almost eight innings, six Ks and only four hits in his time on the mound. Jermaine Van Buren, the first reliever was not as impressive but then the Cats brought in Andrew Brown who was able to close the Sidewinders down. Also impressive was Landon Powell, the new catcher, who homered in his second at bat - if he keeps this up it will be impressive! (that was his second homer). Barton finally broke his hitting streak but that was an impressive run, nonetheless.
It is odd that we had such problems with the Grizzlies - they are usually a reliable safety net - but in this series we had trouble with them in two of the three games. More importantly over this season they have the advantage. We stand at .542 with on up on Fresno and no longer the strongest record in the league. Our last 10 we were 4-6 so we will need to get back on track. But with the number of roster moves it is hard to imagine how a team can jell.
Friday, June 29, 2007
IVB and Nutzpah
Investor's Business Daily coined a new word today which combines a common equivalent for crazy with "Chutzpah" - and its' first appellation was to Jimmy Carter for a speech he gave in Dublin which does not deserve to be covered. Carter's speech evidenced "nutzpah" - combining strident and hurtful rhetoric with some quite silly notions. Perhaps that might properly be applied to the former president whenever he speaks, it would just simplify things.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Seeming Common Sense
The San Jose State poll released numbers yesterday which might surprise some people in the political class.
On the proposed term limits proposal - which would reduce the overall time that any politician can spend in the legislature but would allow a small group of legislators to extend their terms - the voters seem to support (based on the notion that it will shorten the time that legislators can spend in the job of being a politician even if they can spend it all in one house). The margin is not entirely comforting to the measure's supporters - 56% with a +/- of 3.9%. Generally a measure tends to lose support as things progress so the margin may be a bit close.
The people were read the following statement, which pretty accurately reflects the proposal - “Reduces the total amount of time a person may serve in the state legislature from 14 years to 12 years. Allows a person to serve a total of 12 years either in the Assembly, the Senate, or a combination of both. Provides a transition period to allow current members to serve a total of 12 consecutive years in the house in which they are currently serving, regardless of any prior
service in another house.”
On granting a path to legal status for people who came into the country illegally - support is running well above 50% - with, not surprisingly Democrats and Latinos more heavily supporting the idea. But surprisingly 45% of the GOP poll responders support the notion. In the end that is pretty good. Rates of support have varied from 50-63% over the last several polls. One might wish that the politicians who want to demagogue this on both sides would listen to the voters a bit more.
On the proposed term limits proposal - which would reduce the overall time that any politician can spend in the legislature but would allow a small group of legislators to extend their terms - the voters seem to support (based on the notion that it will shorten the time that legislators can spend in the job of being a politician even if they can spend it all in one house). The margin is not entirely comforting to the measure's supporters - 56% with a +/- of 3.9%. Generally a measure tends to lose support as things progress so the margin may be a bit close.
The people were read the following statement, which pretty accurately reflects the proposal - “Reduces the total amount of time a person may serve in the state legislature from 14 years to 12 years. Allows a person to serve a total of 12 years either in the Assembly, the Senate, or a combination of both. Provides a transition period to allow current members to serve a total of 12 consecutive years in the house in which they are currently serving, regardless of any prior
service in another house.”
On granting a path to legal status for people who came into the country illegally - support is running well above 50% - with, not surprisingly Democrats and Latinos more heavily supporting the idea. But surprisingly 45% of the GOP poll responders support the notion. In the end that is pretty good. Rates of support have varied from 50-63% over the last several polls. One might wish that the politicians who want to demagogue this on both sides would listen to the voters a bit more.
Sunday, June 24, 2007
News as Advocacy
The Washington Post today led a story with the following - "President Bush has company at the bottom of the polls: The Democratic-led Congress is nearly as unpopular as he is. But look district by district, and the picture brightens for the new majority party. The first comprehensive survey of 2008 battleground House seats shows Democrats holding a distinct edge."
The latest polling on the President indeed shows his numbers are pretty much in the dumper - with Newsweek at 26%, Gallup at 32% and NBC/WSJ at 28%. The same NBC/WSJ poll shows that 48% of the voters think they need a new member of congress. The Real Clear Politics average for the President is a whopping 31.1% positive. But wait Congress' number is almost six points below that at 25.2%. So the term "nearly as unpopular" seems a bit off the mark. Disapproval numbers are also higher for Congress but only by a smidge - 63.8% to 64%.
But then you come to the clincher in the final paragraph of the page AO2 story it comes from the Democracy Corps a group run by James Carville and Stan Greenberg - two democrat operatives. The final paragraph sums up the story - "The Democracy Corps analysis included a big caveat: To capture additional districts, the Democratic Congress must show significant results, both in pressing the White House for a change of course in Iraq and in addressing domestic issues that voters care about. "These are both the best of times and challenging times for the Democrats," the memo concluded." I guess the Post believes that Carville and Greenberg's own press machine was not enough to get the word out.
The latest polling on the President indeed shows his numbers are pretty much in the dumper - with Newsweek at 26%, Gallup at 32% and NBC/WSJ at 28%. The same NBC/WSJ poll shows that 48% of the voters think they need a new member of congress. The Real Clear Politics average for the President is a whopping 31.1% positive. But wait Congress' number is almost six points below that at 25.2%. So the term "nearly as unpopular" seems a bit off the mark. Disapproval numbers are also higher for Congress but only by a smidge - 63.8% to 64%.
But then you come to the clincher in the final paragraph of the page AO2 story it comes from the Democracy Corps a group run by James Carville and Stan Greenberg - two democrat operatives. The final paragraph sums up the story - "The Democracy Corps analysis included a big caveat: To capture additional districts, the Democratic Congress must show significant results, both in pressing the White House for a change of course in Iraq and in addressing domestic issues that voters care about. "These are both the best of times and challenging times for the Democrats," the memo concluded." I guess the Post believes that Carville and Greenberg's own press machine was not enough to get the word out.
Saturday, June 23, 2007
An Update
When the Rivercats had their luncheon with the players, we sat next to a young man named Lloyd Turner. I made a comment that he was a reason for hope in baseball. He was well spoken and had a lot of desire. The night before that event (May 18) he made a superb catch in the outfield - a diving effort where he landed on his catching arm but still kept control of the ball. When we had lunch with him he still had a bit of numbness in his hand. For the last month we have not seen much of him except as a pinch runner (he has great base speed) and as a first base line coach.
Yesterday he got sent back down to the Stockton Ports (the A's Single A franchise). That is one of the realities of minor league baseball - at the same time several Rivercats have been moved up to the bigs. There are now 5 players on the Cats roster who were there on opening day. Since the start of the season there have been 94 moves on the roster. Let's hope we see this young man back and then that he achieves his dream of getting to the majors.
Ron Flores, by the way, who seems to have earned a spot on the A's roster continues to do well with a 1.29 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 14 innings since he was called up. (The photo of Flores is from two seasons ago when he was literally giving me the shirt off his back for a charity fundraiser.)
Friday, June 22, 2007
Contact with Reality
In 1936, soon after California adopted its first income tax a group of people from the movie industry sponsored an initiative to eliminate the hated tax. One of their arguments against the tax was that it would reduce employment in the state. (And indeed there is some credible evidence that some income taxes can reduce some employment.) But they then went on to guild their arguments a bit. They suggested that employment would be most reduced for "cooks, drivers and maids" for the swells in the industry. That suggested that the movie people were a bit out of touch with the rest of the state during the middle of the depression.
NBC/Universal's general counsel Rick Cotton seems to have taken a page out of that book when he argued recently that "In the absence of movie piracy, video retailers would sell and rent more titles. Movie theatres would sell more tickets and popcorn. Corn growers would earn greater profits and buy more farm equipment." The only thing missing from his comments is the laugh track.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
The California Bluegrass Association Father's Day Festival
Over the weekend we went to the CBA Father's Day weekend. As usual it had a great group of performers - we missed Rhonda Vincent and the Rage but did see Dale McCoury and Monroe Crossing and Country Current, and Dale Ann Bradley and the Jaybirds and.... you get the idea. Each performer has a chance to perform at least twice - so you get a good chance to see them.
The first we saw is a young lady from SF named Molly Tuttle. Quite frankly Molly's voice needs a bit of maturing. But here musicianship is well beyond her years. She is a great banjo player and has all the tools to be a really wonderful performer.
The festival is great because it is low key - music in the pines, relaxed and wonderful.
The first we saw is a young lady from SF named Molly Tuttle. Quite frankly Molly's voice needs a bit of maturing. But here musicianship is well beyond her years. She is a great banjo player and has all the tools to be a really wonderful performer.
The festival is great because it is low key - music in the pines, relaxed and wonderful.
Friday, June 15, 2007
Today in History
Today my wife is retiring as an elementary school teacher after 39 years (32 in the same district). As I have thought about her career there are some contrasts that are important. During her career she has always chosen to work in districts where a large number of children are disadvantaged. At a couple of points in her career, she had the opportunity to either move out of that environment and into a more wealthy district or into administration - but she chose to stay with the children who needed her.
The district she is retiring from is an interesting one. It is in an area of our region that has a lot of immigrants. Thus, over the years she has seen waves of people coming into the district until they get enough resources to move to a better area. It is also a group of relatively low performing schools. The district has been plagued with low test scores and thus over the last couple of years made some changes which are more bureaucratic than helpful. The changes often overlooked truly creative teaching for a standardization that is mind-numbing for both the teachers and the students. No wonder that scores are not improving.
This year her principal was replaced with a young woman who has no teaching experience. She has the "multi-culti" language down pat. She also can babble on about leadership. The problem is that she seems to demonstrate little understanding about the real needs of children or of the genuine requirement for all leaders to inspire. The best principals I have noticed over time become the school - they are constantly visible. This amateur thinks that leadership comes from directives and meetings.
At the beginning of the school year my wife's district offered a retirement incentive and she took it in a flash. The current environment which is conditioned by the district's formulaic approach to achievement and the inexperienced principal gave her the incentive to leave the kids she loved.
That comes to my final point. There is a distinction that I like a lot between bureaucrats and professionals. Bureaucrats try to do things right, professionals try to do the right thing - my wife is a great example of a professional.
The district she is retiring from is an interesting one. It is in an area of our region that has a lot of immigrants. Thus, over the years she has seen waves of people coming into the district until they get enough resources to move to a better area. It is also a group of relatively low performing schools. The district has been plagued with low test scores and thus over the last couple of years made some changes which are more bureaucratic than helpful. The changes often overlooked truly creative teaching for a standardization that is mind-numbing for both the teachers and the students. No wonder that scores are not improving.
This year her principal was replaced with a young woman who has no teaching experience. She has the "multi-culti" language down pat. She also can babble on about leadership. The problem is that she seems to demonstrate little understanding about the real needs of children or of the genuine requirement for all leaders to inspire. The best principals I have noticed over time become the school - they are constantly visible. This amateur thinks that leadership comes from directives and meetings.
At the beginning of the school year my wife's district offered a retirement incentive and she took it in a flash. The current environment which is conditioned by the district's formulaic approach to achievement and the inexperienced principal gave her the incentive to leave the kids she loved.
That comes to my final point. There is a distinction that I like a lot between bureaucrats and professionals. Bureaucrats try to do things right, professionals try to do the right thing - my wife is a great example of a professional.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Media Styles then and now.....
On Tuesday two events happened which typify some significant changes in the setting for the media. First, Don Herbert, better known to a couple of generations of kids as Mr. Wizard, died. Herbert had trained to be a teacher but was attracted to the new medium of television to mix an interest in acting with an underlying gift to help young people understand science. He started on a Chicago TV station. The image you see of him is a good representation. Each week he would begin his show with a trick of science - something that did not make sense or surprised one. Then with the help of an audience of children he would explain the issue using concise and clear explanations. In short he saw his job as a teacher and he did it very well.
Also on Tuesday, Michael Moore, movie producer came to Sacramento to push legislation on universal health care. Moore has also used the media successfully. Over the last two decades he has done a series of "documentaries" beginning with a somewhat humorous Roger and Me which presented one person's opinion about closing the Flint plant of GM. He went on to do a couple of more movies, meant not to present an issue in Mr. Wizard's style of objectivity but with a clear ideological bias. His current project, Sicko, is like the rest of his work - heavily ideological and unwilling to even admit an alternative point of view.
In one sense, the Mr. Wizard media hero of the 1950s was understated. He made his point by the sheer force of his logic and his commitment to use the media as an instructional device. Moore, like his weight, is a bit over the top. Never mind that each of his documentaries is constructed to make a political point with little regard for the facts. Moore's "teaching" style is nothing but heavy handed. Herbert's style was to inspire, Moore's seems to be to incite.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Musical Choice
I have become a big fan of iTunes. As noted in an earlier post, some people think the model (purchase versus rent) is wrong but there is another issue in the model that I think is more important. On Saturday I was in Barnes and Noble buying a present for a new grand nephew. I stopped in the record shop and bought a CD of some bluegrass performers. I know the group and thought it would be a good addition to my collection. It turned out to be a disappointment. The album had a couple of songs that I really liked but several that I did not.
On Sunday, I was looking around iTunes and sampled an artist named Cathy Fink - who plays banjo in traditional styles. She had several albums on the site and I spent a couple of minutes listening to samples of her work, decided I liked it and purchased a couple of her albums. A the same time I also purchased one song from another group without having to purchase the entire album. That model seems a lot better than the hit and miss of purchase in a record store. I realize that B&N allows some sampling of some albums but the iTunes model allows that for all the music on the site.
Important News
"I used to act dumb. It was an act. I am 26 years old, and that act is no longer cute, It is not who I am, nor do I want to be that person for the young girls who looked up to me." Those were the words of Paris Hilton from the slammer talking to ABC. I am not sure about the reference to "young girls looking up to her" but the more important question is what if her shenanigans are not an act (if she really is that stupid)? The mind boggles. But regardless, I believe most people have gotten to the point that they don't care whether Ms. Hilton is dumb or smart rather they care that she simply disappear from our consciousness.
The self induced frenzy from these kinds of stories is annoying. I have hesitated to even comment on the AP story - but I could not resist. The media made me do it.
The self induced frenzy from these kinds of stories is annoying. I have hesitated to even comment on the AP story - but I could not resist. The media made me do it.
Sunday, June 10, 2007
Wharton and Apple
For the past couple of weeks I have been listening to the Wharton podcast. In short order a professor of marketing made some pretty outrageous claims. For example, he spent one podcast trashing the iPhone. His claims seemed to have taken all of the negatives of this yet to be released product and ignored all of the potential positives. For example, he said few people will want to buy a phone that is between $500 and $600 - although there is plenty of evidence that there is a pretty strong market for these devices. A look at a couple of AT&T stores over the weekend suggest that the good professor should have done a bit more looking around. The proof of the iPhone will become more clear in the next couple of weeks - after the June 29 announcement. There are rumors that Apple will either have something in the range of 3 million units by the end of the year - or a shortage. There is also a lot of speculation about whether the claims that were originally made about the product will be sustained.
A lot of the focus has been on the internet feature of the phone. While techies argue about the goodness of 2.5G and 3G technology and whether Edge is fast enough - the real question should be will the first generation of technology be slick enough to satisfy those who will pay the initial fee. AT&T has been mum about the service cost for this phone - but it is likely to be based on some phone charges and also then a data plan. There will also likely be some alternatives to the iPhone - but in a column last week by Walter Mossberg - none of the ones he looked at seemed to fill the same need.
In another podcast the same professor suggested that iTunes is a lousy model. He argued that the subscription services were the model for selling music in the future. There is a press story which makes a bit more sense than his argument (which at least based on current market data contradicts the professor's line of reason) in Appleinsider today. At the Worldwide developers Conference which starts tomorrow there is a rumor that by the end of the summer Apple will begin offering a rental service for movies which can be obtained over the net. The article claims that Apple believes that the markets between music and film are different. Music is something that people want to own while movies are watched a couple of times and then not seen again. The service would charge something like $3 per movie to use them for 30 days. The download could be put on one other device (using a digital rights managment system). That sounds like a pretty good idea to me.
It is unclear what this new service would do to the current Apple sales effort for movies. The larger potential market would seem to be for the rental system but who knows?
The podcast from Wharton is one of the ones that so far has been disappointing. With commentary like Professor Faber's and some equally odd commentary on politics which was a bit absurd.
The podcast market is a quickly evolving one. Like any other information market, there will be a lot of variation in quality. But as the market expands there will also be two things happening. First, the range of offerings, at least initially, will continue to grow. Second, the best podcasts will continue to develop and adapt to the market.
A lot of the focus has been on the internet feature of the phone. While techies argue about the goodness of 2.5G and 3G technology and whether Edge is fast enough - the real question should be will the first generation of technology be slick enough to satisfy those who will pay the initial fee. AT&T has been mum about the service cost for this phone - but it is likely to be based on some phone charges and also then a data plan. There will also likely be some alternatives to the iPhone - but in a column last week by Walter Mossberg - none of the ones he looked at seemed to fill the same need.
In another podcast the same professor suggested that iTunes is a lousy model. He argued that the subscription services were the model for selling music in the future. There is a press story which makes a bit more sense than his argument (which at least based on current market data contradicts the professor's line of reason) in Appleinsider today. At the Worldwide developers Conference which starts tomorrow there is a rumor that by the end of the summer Apple will begin offering a rental service for movies which can be obtained over the net. The article claims that Apple believes that the markets between music and film are different. Music is something that people want to own while movies are watched a couple of times and then not seen again. The service would charge something like $3 per movie to use them for 30 days. The download could be put on one other device (using a digital rights managment system). That sounds like a pretty good idea to me.
It is unclear what this new service would do to the current Apple sales effort for movies. The larger potential market would seem to be for the rental system but who knows?
The podcast from Wharton is one of the ones that so far has been disappointing. With commentary like Professor Faber's and some equally odd commentary on politics which was a bit absurd.
The podcast market is a quickly evolving one. Like any other information market, there will be a lot of variation in quality. But as the market expands there will also be two things happening. First, the range of offerings, at least initially, will continue to grow. Second, the best podcasts will continue to develop and adapt to the market.
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Finally
This afternoon I was driving to a meeting in San Francisco and listening to the Rivercats final game against Round Rock. They had lost three interesting but disappointing games and were in danger of losing their first series by a sweep. As I got closer to SF - the radio signal got weaker and right when the signal went out - Round Rock's Jesse Garcia got a solo homer to move them into the lead in the top of the 12th. Then the signal went out. But in the bottom of the 12th this team which has shown some good heart early in the season started off with a Dee Brown single and then a homer by Kevin Mellilo to win the game. The picture here is from an earlier game but Kevin deserves the credit. Reading the dry summary is not as good as hearing Johnny Doskow tell the story - but I will take the win!
The Cats have a day off and then start a four game series in Tuscon and then a three in Fresno before returning to Sacramento for the Father's day weekend.
Monday, June 04, 2007
Petty Crime
In today's edition of USA today there is an article about a guy named Jeff Scalf. His grandmother was John Dillinger's half sister. He seems to be trying to extort money from a little town in Iowa based on an Indiana law which allows "family" members to exploit the name of Dillinger (and other remote family members to exploint the name of their famous "ancestors") for 100 years after their (the famous person's death).
Mason City Iowa was the site of one of Mr. Dillinger's bank robberies in 1934, where the petty thug who was gunned down later that year at Chicago's Biograph theater, and so they, by any rights, should have an equal claim to use Dillinger's name in commemorating the robbery as the grandson of a half sister who never met Mr. Dillinger - at least Mason City met the guy. The law has also been responsible for closing down a small museum in Hammond, Indiana about Dillinger. Since when should this kind of law be applicable to a museum? This is just nonsense. Dillinger's entire career lasted about two years and this low life wants to try to exploit it until 2034.
Dillinger was a minor footnote to history. His semi-relatives should not have a claim on his name. Were there real justice here the law would stay on the books but Mr. Scalf would be required to pay restitution to all the places that Dillinger terrorized. That sounds like a fair trade.
Mason City Iowa was the site of one of Mr. Dillinger's bank robberies in 1934, where the petty thug who was gunned down later that year at Chicago's Biograph theater, and so they, by any rights, should have an equal claim to use Dillinger's name in commemorating the robbery as the grandson of a half sister who never met Mr. Dillinger - at least Mason City met the guy. The law has also been responsible for closing down a small museum in Hammond, Indiana about Dillinger. Since when should this kind of law be applicable to a museum? This is just nonsense. Dillinger's entire career lasted about two years and this low life wants to try to exploit it until 2034.
Dillinger was a minor footnote to history. His semi-relatives should not have a claim on his name. Were there real justice here the law would stay on the books but Mr. Scalf would be required to pay restitution to all the places that Dillinger terrorized. That sounds like a fair trade.
Sunday, June 03, 2007
What makes minor league baseball interesting?
The photo is from a greeter who meets every fan coming into the right field gate of Raley Field. He simply refers to himself as the Number One Fan. He is consistently optimistic and high fives everyone coming through that entrance.
You then get to the discount supplies guy. He has a temporary stand which sells water and red ropes and sunflower seeds at a discounted price to the price in the stadium. (Yes, he wears a Raley Field badge and no he is not competing against the stadium.)
Then there is the hot dog cannon. Sometime during the game a truck comes out an shoots wrapped hotdogs to the fans. That is coupled with a whole host of other gimmicks (the Knock-Knock teeshirt, Roofman, Pop Fly payoff, etc.). Some of them are dumb - one called Who's in the can - has a fan guess who is in a portapotty. I am not sure who thought that one up. But a lot of them are just plain fun. There are the lawn seats - which our grandson seems to like a lot - mostly because he can roll down the hill. But what each of these parks tries to do is create an ambience. In one minor league park in New Orleans - there were pitchers of beer (plastic so you could take it to your seat) and cajun food. In another there were handouts of local candy. So there are a lot of things to entertain in addition to the baseball.
A key principle here is the players - who are not infused with the attitude that infects many major leaguers. There is a good mix of players who want to go to the "show" combined with those who have had their nights in the lights and a finishing out a career. So while the average age is young, there is a certain maturity in the game.
You then get to the discount supplies guy. He has a temporary stand which sells water and red ropes and sunflower seeds at a discounted price to the price in the stadium. (Yes, he wears a Raley Field badge and no he is not competing against the stadium.)
Then there is the hot dog cannon. Sometime during the game a truck comes out an shoots wrapped hotdogs to the fans. That is coupled with a whole host of other gimmicks (the Knock-Knock teeshirt, Roofman, Pop Fly payoff, etc.). Some of them are dumb - one called Who's in the can - has a fan guess who is in a portapotty. I am not sure who thought that one up. But a lot of them are just plain fun. There are the lawn seats - which our grandson seems to like a lot - mostly because he can roll down the hill. But what each of these parks tries to do is create an ambience. In one minor league park in New Orleans - there were pitchers of beer (plastic so you could take it to your seat) and cajun food. In another there were handouts of local candy. So there are a lot of things to entertain in addition to the baseball.
A key principle here is the players - who are not infused with the attitude that infects many major leaguers. There is a good mix of players who want to go to the "show" combined with those who have had their nights in the lights and a finishing out a career. So while the average age is young, there is a certain maturity in the game.
What is the definition of a great game in Baseball?
Last night we took a friend and his family to a Rivercats game which had all of the following characteristics -
A grand slam by a Rivercat, plus a couple of other home runs.
A dispute at the plate - where we won the ruling - during a crucial play. (By the way we should have won the ruling). A Round Rock Express player tried to come into home on a foul ball and was called back. (The shot is of the umpires conferring with the Round Rock manager to explain their ruling.)
The game went into extra innings (11) and there were a couple of opportunities for each team to break out of the tie.
A whole host of other great defensive plays.
and a couple of flubs.
The Rivercats lost the game but it was still lots of fun.
Our friend brought his two young kids (a kindergartener and a second grader) and they seemed engaged for all of the game.
The only difference that would have made the great game perfect was to reverse the score. The Cats are still playing well.
Friday, June 01, 2007
The utility of pulpits and conference tables in public policy
One of the issues that those of us interested in public policy need to grapple with is the differences in utility between a pulpit and a conference table in the advancing new ideas. A pulpit is great for transmitting ideas but not very good to recognize the nuances between issues and positions. A conference table is a much better place for that.
But both sides of most debates in the public arena seem more intent on using the pulpit rather than the conference table. The pulpit degrades our public discourse and puts us in the unenviable position of not being able to search for the best kinds of solutions. Wasn't that why we formed our representative system in the first place? We'd be a lot closer to thinking out issues from Iraq to Immigration if our public officials just relied on a different piece of furniture.
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Ward Churchill and Academic Freedom
The depth of absurdity in academia seems to be playing out in Colorado.
Take one "professor" who seems to have the following characteristics -
1. An absurd "scholarly" record where a faculty panel found that much of his work has been "intentionally plagarized" and fabricated in other ways. Before his fabrications this professor had a mediocre preparation to become a professor and mis-stated his qualifications when he was originally hired.
2. A manufactured identity - claiming to be a Native American but with little or no legitimate evidence of that claim. Evidence that the University where he works hired him for some bizarre affirmative action goal rather than for any long term academic need.
3. A long record of making outrageous and unsubstantiated comments in areas where his perceived scholarly expertise is lacking. His most outrageous remarks, made soon after 9/11 were that the victims were "little Eichmans" - arguing that those killed in the twin towers were somehow similar to the WWII Nazi officer who actively developed and led an effort to deport and exterminate millions of people in Europe."
By any reasonable standard, this professor would never have been hired at a legitimate university. But he was.
His defenders make comments comparing his firing to “an opening wedge in the concerted effort to curb academic freedom and tenure.” (Margaret Le Compte, professor of Education at UC Boulder). The faculty committee, after an extended review of his record decided this professor should be disciplined but the president decided that his actions and record recommended removal.
So what is academic freedom?
In 1994, at the height of speech codes the American Association of University Professors opined against speech codes with the following comment "Freedom of thought and expression is essential to any institution of higher learning. Universitiesand colleges exist not only to transmit knowledge. Equally, they interpret, explore, and expand that knowledge by testing the old and proposing the new."
Academic freedom, at least from what I have learned over my career, encourages professors to pursue ideas without threat of retribution. During the McCarthy period that allowed many on the left to pursue their ideas. But in this era, at least according to Ward Churchill's defenders - academic freedom allows a professor to make absurd and unsubstantiated comments. Academic freedom requires some reasonable level of responsibility and preparation. Mr. Churchill seems to have neither.
In 2000 I was lucky enough to attend a symposium with the Pope, John Paul II. He was speaking to a bunch of academics. He said what is the job of the university? It is to pursue truth. Then he asked what are the potential perils for a university? The first was that it would not pursue truth. The second was that it would pursue "endless meanderings in erudition."
Churchill clearly does not try to pursue truth in any form but his own twisted creation of it. If you take the AAUP definitions of academic freedom or the Holy Father's - either suggests that Mr. Churchill should be dismissed.
Take one "professor" who seems to have the following characteristics -
1. An absurd "scholarly" record where a faculty panel found that much of his work has been "intentionally plagarized" and fabricated in other ways. Before his fabrications this professor had a mediocre preparation to become a professor and mis-stated his qualifications when he was originally hired.
2. A manufactured identity - claiming to be a Native American but with little or no legitimate evidence of that claim. Evidence that the University where he works hired him for some bizarre affirmative action goal rather than for any long term academic need.
3. A long record of making outrageous and unsubstantiated comments in areas where his perceived scholarly expertise is lacking. His most outrageous remarks, made soon after 9/11 were that the victims were "little Eichmans" - arguing that those killed in the twin towers were somehow similar to the WWII Nazi officer who actively developed and led an effort to deport and exterminate millions of people in Europe."
By any reasonable standard, this professor would never have been hired at a legitimate university. But he was.
His defenders make comments comparing his firing to “an opening wedge in the concerted effort to curb academic freedom and tenure.” (Margaret Le Compte, professor of Education at UC Boulder). The faculty committee, after an extended review of his record decided this professor should be disciplined but the president decided that his actions and record recommended removal.
So what is academic freedom?
In 1994, at the height of speech codes the American Association of University Professors opined against speech codes with the following comment "Freedom of thought and expression is essential to any institution of higher learning. Universitiesand colleges exist not only to transmit knowledge. Equally, they interpret, explore, and expand that knowledge by testing the old and proposing the new."
Academic freedom, at least from what I have learned over my career, encourages professors to pursue ideas without threat of retribution. During the McCarthy period that allowed many on the left to pursue their ideas. But in this era, at least according to Ward Churchill's defenders - academic freedom allows a professor to make absurd and unsubstantiated comments. Academic freedom requires some reasonable level of responsibility and preparation. Mr. Churchill seems to have neither.
In 2000 I was lucky enough to attend a symposium with the Pope, John Paul II. He was speaking to a bunch of academics. He said what is the job of the university? It is to pursue truth. Then he asked what are the potential perils for a university? The first was that it would not pursue truth. The second was that it would pursue "endless meanderings in erudition."
Churchill clearly does not try to pursue truth in any form but his own twisted creation of it. If you take the AAUP definitions of academic freedom or the Holy Father's - either suggests that Mr. Churchill should be dismissed.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
An interesting twist
The Acton Institute published an excerpt of a monograph by Corinne and Robert Sauer which caught my attention this morning. It is titled "Judaism, Markets, and Capitalism: Separating Myths from Reality." The monograph suggests there are five foundations of what they call Jewish economic theory. I am not Jewish but am interested in markets. The Sauers are professors and founded the Jerusalem Institute for Market Studies, which is a non-profit ecomonic think tank.
Their five principles are -
1. Work, creative activity, and innovation are the avenues through which the divine image is expressed.
2. Private property rights are essential and must be protected.
3. The accumulation of wealth is a virtue not a vice.
4. Man has an obligation to care for the needy through charitable giving.
5. Government is inefficient and concentrated power is dangerous.
What interested me about the principles - which I believe are a key part of the fabric that writers like Waldemar Neilsen covered in broader works about the nature of the non-profit sector or of other writers who examined why the west developed in the way that it did - is their inter-connectedness. Private property rights are key to the accumulation of wealth. Wealth is related in part to the ability to hold it (private property). But, as Smith reminded us, wealth is not an avenue in itself but rather should be seen as a two edged sword - with both the opportunity and the obligation. Finally, the relationship of charitable giving and the inability of government to accomplish many public functions is also tied together.
The original article can be found at The Acton Institute. Ultimately the five principles influence not only Jewish thought but the broader ranges of Judeo-Christian thought. Obviously, in one strain of Christian thinking the accumulation of wealth was seen in negative terms. But the article articulated some principles that I believe should have much broader application.
Finally, if you look at some of the documents that many economists call their founding ones (Smith, Hume, Bastiat, etc.) the linkage of these five principles pervades a lot of that work. Too bad that many foundational courses in economics do not start from these ideas.
Their five principles are -
1. Work, creative activity, and innovation are the avenues through which the divine image is expressed.
2. Private property rights are essential and must be protected.
3. The accumulation of wealth is a virtue not a vice.
4. Man has an obligation to care for the needy through charitable giving.
5. Government is inefficient and concentrated power is dangerous.
What interested me about the principles - which I believe are a key part of the fabric that writers like Waldemar Neilsen covered in broader works about the nature of the non-profit sector or of other writers who examined why the west developed in the way that it did - is their inter-connectedness. Private property rights are key to the accumulation of wealth. Wealth is related in part to the ability to hold it (private property). But, as Smith reminded us, wealth is not an avenue in itself but rather should be seen as a two edged sword - with both the opportunity and the obligation. Finally, the relationship of charitable giving and the inability of government to accomplish many public functions is also tied together.
The original article can be found at The Acton Institute. Ultimately the five principles influence not only Jewish thought but the broader ranges of Judeo-Christian thought. Obviously, in one strain of Christian thinking the accumulation of wealth was seen in negative terms. But the article articulated some principles that I believe should have much broader application.
Finally, if you look at some of the documents that many economists call their founding ones (Smith, Hume, Bastiat, etc.) the linkage of these five principles pervades a lot of that work. Too bad that many foundational courses in economics do not start from these ideas.
Monday, May 28, 2007
Election Excitement
On Saturday night we were at a birthday dinner celebrating the 60th birthday of two friends. Before we went into dinner, which was lots of fun, we had the chance to speak with a woman who is very excited about the election. She commented that for the first time in a long time there should be reason for hope. The country has a lot of long term problems many of which have been created and perpetuated by the political system. She worried that for too long the country's leaders came from the same elite part of society and were burdened, regardless of party, with the same tired "solutions." But she thought that this election offered exceptional promise to change all that.
Was she supporting Guiliani or Clinton or Obama or Romney? No she is a French national, married to a friend who is an attorney in San Francisco and she was talking about recently elected French president,Nicolas Szarkozy. Our friend discussed with great knowledge the tired ideas that came out of all of Szarkozy's predecessors all of whom, back to almost to DeGaulle, came from the Ecole nationale d'administration.
Wouldn't it be wonderful to have that kind of excitement about the upcoming election?
Was she supporting Guiliani or Clinton or Obama or Romney? No she is a French national, married to a friend who is an attorney in San Francisco and she was talking about recently elected French president,Nicolas Szarkozy. Our friend discussed with great knowledge the tired ideas that came out of all of Szarkozy's predecessors all of whom, back to almost to DeGaulle, came from the Ecole nationale d'administration.
Wouldn't it be wonderful to have that kind of excitement about the upcoming election?
Friday, May 25, 2007
The Worldly Philospher
"I think as far as the adverse impact on the nation around the world, this administration has been the worst in history." - That was a BBC interview that started the flap for former President Jimmy Carter.
Here is how he tried to cover his tracks - He said his remarks might have been "careless or misinterpreted." He further tried to cover his tracks by claiming he was not comparing the overall administration and was certainly not talking personally about any president. It is hard to misinterpret Mr. Carter's remarks. But then it is also hard to forget Mr. Carter's record for gaffes of similar dimensions.
In February, Joshua Muravchik, writing for Commentary, described Mr. Carter as our "worst ex-president." Remember this was the guy who ran for governor with the owner of the Pickrick, racist Lester Maddox. He called himself (with his running mate) "basically a redneck." You may also remember that in 1976 Mr. Carter called for raising taxes on every person "above the median income." When some wag pointed out what the median income in the country actually was, he quickly covered with the memorable quip "That is not the median I meant." And this guy was an engineer who allegedly did some work in basic math while studying in the Academy.
His judgment on the quality of leaders is a bit speckled. Yugoslav Dictator Tito was “a man who believes in human rights” but also commented that the "corageous leader" had protected the freedom of the people for 40 years." Among his admired people were Edmund Gierek (Poland's Stalinist - deposed by the Solidarity movement after Carter had been run out of office. ) He also thought highly of Nicolae Ceausescu and Slobodan Milosevic. Muravchik also spends a good deal of time talking about the Georgia peanut farmer's penchant for trying to negotiate deals with dictators like Kim Il Sung. His article did not go into detail of Carter's bizarre quest to certify rigged elections like the one which put Hugo Chavez into absolute control of Venezuela.
So pardon me but I am led to believe a) Mr. Carter has no sense of judgment and b) his assessment on the qualities of world or national leaders is not entirely up to reasonable standards. That does not explain my own feelings about our current president but it does suggest that Mr. Carter should have learned something in the Naval Academy - especially that loose lips sink ships. But then when you are on a mission, those details don't mean much.
Monday, May 21, 2007
Rumors and Techland
Last week's gaff by Endgadet caused a stir in the financial markets. For a few hours the blog had posted a note that internal memos showed that Apple had decided to delay introduction of the iPhone. That caused Apple stock to do a slight tumble - which quickly recovered when the rumor proved false.
There seem to be a couple of things going on here. First, the level of excitement for a product which is still about a month out (end of June is the announced date for introduction) is absolutely mind-boggling. That may be caused because there is not much else happening - Vista proved a disappointment and there is simply not a lot of whiz-bang in the pipeline now. But second, it may also set some very unrealistic expectations about the product. From what I saw of the device in January (which is very atypical for Apple to announce a device which at that time had not even received its final approvals - by the way last week it received its FCC approval) it has some very good features. I am not as interested in the iPod integration as I am about the other parts including legitimate web browsing.
By the way, of course I am on the list and have been since the day it was announced. SO I guess you could say I am also part of the frenzy. I used the Newton (that is the picture) and was enthusiastic about that device. The new features of the iPhone seem to have taken up some of the best parts of the Newton and of other devices. I have looked closely at the rest of the market of Smartphones and found all of them wanting. But I may keep my Razr as a back-up phone.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Reasons for Optimism
This afternoon was the Rivercats luncheon with the team. We had the opportunity to sit by Lloyd Turner, who is new to the team. Last night he made a dazzling catch and since he came up to AAA ball he has been pretty impressive, at least in the field. Turner was drafted twice (he was first drafted by the Dodgers but decided to pass it up and go to college - Kennesaw State in Georgia) but then was part of the Michael Lewis class which Moneyball is written about. Since then he has played in Midland and in Stockton and Modesto. Since coming up he is 5 for 33 (.152) but has gotten 3 RBIs.
This guy is a thoughtful young man. He is soft spoken - not prone to boast but very committed to his craft. We talked about his desire to get to the bigs and he seems to understand that at this level the difference between one player and the next is heart (he has a lot of it - as he showed in his magnificent catch last night). He also talked about life after baseball - he wants to help kids but obviously that will wait until he gets to the show. It was a fun couple of hours speaking with this fairly new player for the Rivercats - but it was also inspiring.
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Jerry Fallwell
He died today but his stage had already moved on. The biggots of the right are as bad as the biggots of the left. In the 1980s he and Pat Robertson were the anthesis of Jackson and Sharpton on the left -both groups were prone to make grandious statements in support of their narrow positions. Unfortunately, the main stream media still seems to think Jackson and Sharpton actually represent someone.
Lord Acton was right, Power does corrupt. and Absolutely.
Miguel Cervantes - Feminist
A friend of mine urged me to read Don Quixote in the original Spanish. I am not up to that but I started the book a few days ago - it is well worth the investment. One of the adventures that Quixote and Sancho get involved with is in the burial of a victim of unrequited love. The guy who died of the broken heart was named Chrysostom and the object of his affection was named Marcela. Marcela, we are told, came from a wealthy family and her father said he would allow her to make her choice on whether and who she would marry. And she chose not to marry but to become a goatherd. But Chrysostom pursued her none-the-less. At the start of the chapter we hear a poem from Chrysostom which talks about the horror of his pain in wonderful detail. But then Marcela shows up and asks why should I be blamed because this guy died because I rejected him. She has a great statement which describes the problems she faced for her choices and clearly helps us understand why it is inappropriate for one to blame her for Chrysostom's actions. She says in part " He was persistent in spite of warning, he despaired without being hated. Bethink you now if it be reasonable that his suffering should be laid to my charge. Let him who has been deceived complain, let him give way to despair whose encouraged hopes have proved vain, let him flatter himself whom I shall entice, let him boast whom I shall receive; but let not him call me cruel or homicide to whom I make no promise, upon whom I practise no deception, whom I neither entice nor receive. It has not been so far the will of Heaven that I should love by fate, and to expect me to love by choice is idle. Let this general declaration serve for each of my suitors on his own account, and let it be understood from this time forth that if anyone dies for me it is not of jealousy or misery he dies, for she who loves no one can give no cause for jealousy to any, and candour is not to be confounded with scorn. Let him who calls me wild beast and basilisk, leave me alone as something noxious and evil; let him who calls me ungrateful, withhold his service; who calls me wayward, seek not my acquaintance; who calls me cruel, pursue me not; for this wild beast, this basilisk, this ungrateful, cruel, wayward being has no kind of desire to seek, serve, know, or follow them. If Chrysostom's impatience and violent passion killed him, why should my modest behaviour and circumspection be blamed? If I preserve my purity in the society of the trees, why should he who would have me preserve it among men, seek to rob me of it?"
Quixote mixes the absurd and the substantive in wonderful ways. I am really enjoying the book.
Digital Photo Review goes to Amazon
On Monday it was announced that the the best site on the net for reviews of digital photos has been sold to Amazon. Some intrepid webizens have worried that the Dpreview standards will be compromised.
From my point of view, we should take a breath and look forward to this new era. Digital Photo Review was started as a hobby site. I have used it almost from the beginning and find its reviews to be consistently excellent. I cannot tell how many people I have sent to the site for their primers on digital photography. But why would Amazon want to compromise that record in any way? Do their book reviews lead people to only a small set of books? Ultimately Amazon is about selling products, the better they get at consumer services the more products they will sell. The founder of Dpreview viewed the acquisition in this way -
"We've worked very hard over the last eight years to deliver consistently high quality content to our readers", founder Phil Askey said. "It will be fantastic to be able to expand and build on that without compromising our quality or independence. With the support and resources of Amazon we can achieve this."
From my point of view, we should take a breath and look forward to this new era. Digital Photo Review was started as a hobby site. I have used it almost from the beginning and find its reviews to be consistently excellent. I cannot tell how many people I have sent to the site for their primers on digital photography. But why would Amazon want to compromise that record in any way? Do their book reviews lead people to only a small set of books? Ultimately Amazon is about selling products, the better they get at consumer services the more products they will sell. The founder of Dpreview viewed the acquisition in this way -
"We've worked very hard over the last eight years to deliver consistently high quality content to our readers", founder Phil Askey said. "It will be fantastic to be able to expand and build on that without compromising our quality or independence. With the support and resources of Amazon we can achieve this."
Monday, May 14, 2007
Problem Solved
One of the problems for many audio listeners is the conversion of vinyl to MP3. We have tons of records that are wonderful and out of print. I would love to have them in MP3. Last week when I was down visiting the new president of Caltech I had lunch with a couple of friends, right before the meeting, and one told me about something called the ION USB turntable.
Walt Mossberg reviewed this a year or so ago and was not entirely satisfied. I am not sure whether they have upgraded the software or whether he was too harsh - but I spent about an hour installing the software and tweaking the settings and then was able to record a bunch of songs I had not heard before. The turntable can be used with any standard audio system (with RCA inputs) or directly into the computer. For $100 bucks (a special price at Costco online last week with shipping) it sounds like a pretty good deal to me.
Bubbles Burst
During the last two years of my undergraduate degree I worked for a stock brokerage. One of the requirements for young potential traders then was to read a "classic" called Extraordinary Popular Delusions on the Madness of Crowds. One of the delusions in the book was about tulipmania when the 17th Century Dutch supposedly went gaga over tulip bulbs and destroyed or at least maimed their economy in this wild speculation.
In today's Financial Times a book is reviewed ,Tulipmania, which debunks at least part of the story. It turns out that the speculative bubble was nowhere as pervasive as the Delusions book had argued and thus the eventual crash had only a minor effect on the Dutch economy.
There are two questions here. First, what should we say about speculative bubbles from learning that one of the most prominent is inaccurate? The story of how the bubble developed, regardless of its total impact, seems to be about right. So the cautions offered by Delusions are a good guide for anyone interested in investments. Benjamin Graham in his legendary book on security analysis suggested that any investment should be viewed with careful analytical eyes.
The second question is equally important. How do we protect ourselves against "intellectual bubbles?" In the literature on public goods (how things get put into the public sector) there are a heap of comments about things that cannot be priced. The leading example of that is the constant reference to lighthouses. The argument went like this - it is impossible to stop a ship passing a lighthouse and so this is obviously a good which cannot be priced and therefore a good example of something which needs to be provided by government. The argument went back to John Stuart Mill, if not before. The only problem was it was wrong. Nobel Prize winner Ronald Coase thought about that line of logic at one point and so did the research on the subject. Coase published an article in the Journal of Law and Economics (Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 17, No. 2 (Oct., 1974), pp. 357-376) actually did the research and found that contrary to simple logic, indeed, there are plenty of examples of pricing the services of lighthouses by following ship records. If a ship in some venues were expected to pass a point, based on its trade route, it could be assessed a fee. That seems like a small point but when you begin to think about pricing goods like lighthouses, it becomes less convincing to move all sorts of other things into the public sector. That is a simple but important point and Mr. Coase was smart enough to help all of us think a bit more clearly.
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Whistling in the Dark
The post yesterday about AOL's CEO Parsons comments about the old and new media seems to have generated, either directly or indirectly, a couple of articles that follow up on the issue raised by Parsons. The first is in today's LA Times and is a debate between a professor of communications at University of Illinois and Glenn Reynolds, who is a law professor at UT (Tennessee) but more importantly the motive force behind Instapundit and a whole bunch of other blogging enterprises. The Times article was titled "Where's the paper; What will be the first major American city without a daily newspaper?"
Professor McChesney mentions a book publisher who argued that all print stuff would go digital by 2002. His premise is that "all media are gravitating toward digital standards, but it will not happen evenly across all media sectors or overnight." Well, duh! Professor McChesney also argues that papers will survive when they do a better job at publishing local news. (In this case, one would presume that he means an expanded notion of local that might include news specific to a community - so the WSJ does a pretty good job.) Indeed, if you look at the market area for the LA Times, the LAT has been losing circulation while a chain of local papers (called the Surburban papers) has been picking up steam - their skill is covering local areas like the South Bay of LA through what used to be a throw away paper called the Daily Breeze.
Professor McChesney also makes an analogy to Shaq - while not the superstar of yesterday he is still pretty important. Reynolds makes the comment that he wished that anybody in the MSM could "play the game." I do not think that any responsible person (and Reynolds is very responsible) have argued (and he does not in his counterpoint) that the MSM is going away immediately nor does Reynolds dispute McChesney's contention that the effects will not be the same in all areas. But both writers recognize a significant and continuing decline of the news business.
On CNN.com today there is an article about declining TV ratings. About 2.5 million fewer people are watching the big four (ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox - and one should also include CNN) than last year. People are shudder making up their own schedules. CNN suggests that some observers have blamed this on Daylight Savings Time. I think it is a bit more simple. When people have choices, they make them. When TIVO first came into the marketplace I was at a party for a friend of my aunt in North Carolina. When I went up to wish her a happy 95 birthday she said "You're from California, that is a place where that TIVO is made and that allows you to "watch TV the way YOU want to" - if she could get it why can't the MSM?
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
I wonder what Mr. Parsons has been smoking
In a Reuters article today, Richard Parsons, the head of Time Warner and arguably one of the "brains" behind the Time Warner takeover of AOL (remember the original deal was the other way round but Parsons then worked for AOL) said the new media better not take on the old media. Coverage of a panel at the 56th annual National Cable & Telecommunications Association conference had Parsons caliming that "The Googles of the world, they are the Custer of the modern world. We are the Sioux nation," Oh, really now. What happened to AOL's market share when Mr. Parsons was running that shop? More importantly what has happened to Time and some of the other "rich" franchises of the Time-Warner enterprise under his watch? In case Mr. Parsons has forgotten his history (as he seems to have in the Custer example) I have reprinted the stock chart for AOL-Time Warner since the merger in 2000. Does the hill at the mark of the merger look at all like Little Big Horn? Mr. Parsons should be a bit more careful about his history both about his own stewardship of Time Warner (which has been less than examplary) and also of the history of the Sioux nation. One thing for sure, the Battle of Little Big Horn was of immense immediate importance and of lesser importance as time went on.
A fundamental issue facing the old media is their inability to respond in a reasonable manner to all of the new challenges produced by the new media. Has the new media found an economic model that will work in all situations? Not yet. But are they further along than companies stuck in the last century? Absolutely. The top chart in the post is Google's from its initial public offering, it gives a better picture than Mr. Parsons of what has been happening since Parsons helped AOL jump into the old media business.
Sunday, May 06, 2007
Opening Day in California
Trout season opened in California last weekend and we chose to look around for fish on the lower truckee. The day was wonderful. The weather was fine. There was very little snow. But then the fish were also exceptionally cagey. The only people who were catching anything where we were fishing were the spin casters who were using bait. Even with that disappointment, it was worth the trip.
What passes for common sense....
An AP story about former president Clinton's appearance at Harvard said the following: "disasters such as worldwide famine and an obesity epidemic threaten the country's stability unless politicians begin to look ahead and cooperate." How the former president tied together obesity and famine is beyond me but there is a larger story.
The story went on to say that the Kennedy School, which is Harvard's school of government/public administration - is "spending $1.5 million over two years to study why governments across the world have failed to act on threats such as heat waves and hurricanes, even when they know they are coming." They might want to look to the literature of Public Choice Economics and not do all that research.
For example, Gordon Tullock, one of the two founders of the field, wrote an article some time ago called the Theory of Public Bads. In 1954 Richard Musgrave wrote a paper which is considered seminal in the field which tried to define something called public goods. Musgrave was a renowned scholar on public finance. When I was doing my doctorate that paper and his text on public were required reading. Unfortunately, Musgrave's theory was prone to expansionism. While the orginal paper limited the class, his other writings were a bit more excited about ways to extend the provision of activities through the public sector. Most of his writings made a, what seems to me somewhat naive assumption, that when something moves into government the risks of negative externalities (or consequences) was somewhat reduced. Tullock argued that a lot of the literature on public goods assumed no negative consequences from governmental actions - and thus we should besides looking at the good that could be created from governmental action that we should also look at the potential problems.
I would suggest that Harvard could profitably spend some of its time looking at the role of self-interested behavior in governmental decisions. Many of what seem to be odd or negligent decisions in government come about because self interest is not parked at the door - as writers like Musgrave seemed to implicitly believe.
The story went on to say that the Kennedy School, which is Harvard's school of government/public administration - is "spending $1.5 million over two years to study why governments across the world have failed to act on threats such as heat waves and hurricanes, even when they know they are coming." They might want to look to the literature of Public Choice Economics and not do all that research.
For example, Gordon Tullock, one of the two founders of the field, wrote an article some time ago called the Theory of Public Bads. In 1954 Richard Musgrave wrote a paper which is considered seminal in the field which tried to define something called public goods. Musgrave was a renowned scholar on public finance. When I was doing my doctorate that paper and his text on public were required reading. Unfortunately, Musgrave's theory was prone to expansionism. While the orginal paper limited the class, his other writings were a bit more excited about ways to extend the provision of activities through the public sector. Most of his writings made a, what seems to me somewhat naive assumption, that when something moves into government the risks of negative externalities (or consequences) was somewhat reduced. Tullock argued that a lot of the literature on public goods assumed no negative consequences from governmental actions - and thus we should besides looking at the good that could be created from governmental action that we should also look at the potential problems.
I would suggest that Harvard could profitably spend some of its time looking at the role of self-interested behavior in governmental decisions. Many of what seem to be odd or negligent decisions in government come about because self interest is not parked at the door - as writers like Musgrave seemed to implicitly believe.
Monday, April 30, 2007
The State of the Podosphere
Over the Christmas break I found a podcast with a guy named Jack Lewis. Its focus is old time and bluegrass music. The host runs an internet radio station and showcases non-signed bands. Lewis sounds like something from the mountains. His folksy manner is interesting. But in the 26 episodes that he did he gave people a good understanding of the differences between bluegrass and old time music. He also did a couple of casts on the history of bluegrass. And a couple on how bands work including the issues that a band has in doing a live performance.
It turns out that Mr. Lewis had a career in the military as an engineer, so while he sounds country he is pretty well educated. But regardless of his background he did some very interesting programs for those of us who are interested in this type of music. Then he went off the air. No explanation on why. That is one of the uncertainties about this new medium.
A couple of my other favorites are specialized to my fields of interest. So there is EconTalk from George Mason University - a great range of topics with a very skilled interviewed - Russ Roberts who is on the faculty there and at the Hoover Institution. Or the Invisible Hand which reviews current management and business books. And then there are the professional ones -the Tax Foundation has a really good one on tax issues. The Federalist Society has a wide range of its programs on legal issues on a wide range of topics. And the Economist does a weekly update of its current issue.
The range of programs is growing and iTunes is a great resource to see what comes next.
Lou Dobbs could learn something from Herman Melville
I am currently reading Moby Dick - it is another part of the quest to either re-read those things that interested me earlier or to read those books I should have read earlier. It is a great book. Like The Wealth of Nations it tells you a lot about things that you may not have known before - as noted TWON explains sheep tallow and MD does the same for whaling. There are chapters on painting whales and how the boats are arranged and the line that is used in whaling. But one of the most interesting is a chapter on the industry of whaling. Melville exhibits a well developed understanding of the importance of the division of labor. He explains that certain parts of the whaling industry are best done by certain types of people. He is quite understanding that Americans can do best by organizing the entrepreneurial parts of the voyage and leaving the other skills to those who do them.
Unlike Dobbs, the CNN commentator who seems to want us to go back to a more primitive time, Melville understands that the most important economic tasks are those that organize others. Dobbs has a pathetic disregard for the values of the division of labor and rails against any effort by Americans to hold on to high value added jobs while exporting ones that once were important. Two weeks ago Russ Roberts of EconTalk did a wonderful podcast with Don Boudreaux, of Cafe Hayek about the silly arguments that people make in regard to buying local. Boudreaux reduces the Dobbsian logic to this - if it is good to only buy American then it is even better to only buy products from your own household. Like Bastiat, Boudreaux makes a good point by focusing on the inherent flaw in the logic and then making fun of it. The podcast can be found at Econtalk if you have not listened to these shows, they are well worth getting. Roberts is a skilled interviewer and he covers a wide range of economically related topics.
I will probably do another post on Moby Dick when I finish the book. Melville is almost lyrical in his writing style. At the same time he creates a very good story.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
The long term distortive effects of governmental policies
During the Second World War the Roosevelt administration instituted wage and price controls to control wartime inflation. Wage and price controls do all sorts of odd things to the economy. But the effects of this policy were long term. Often when one tries to artificially hold down the price of something, markets react in a different area. When the Office of Price Administration instituted these limits, employers, wanting to attract the best employees, began to offer non-taxed (and non-covered) fringe benefits. That began the offering of widespread health benefits. It changed the face of health care but also altered consumer choices.
So what do we have after almost 60 years of this situation? Health care is a much larger part of the economy than it once was. Obviously that came about, in part, because of advances in medicine, but that is not the only reason. There is some evidence that were people not able to get the things they get as fringes that they might consume 20% less of them than they do now. The tax code is certainly more complicated than it should be (although that is not the exclusive fault of fringe benefits). Finally, some of our basic understandings about how the economy works are simply wrong. For example, all of the catterwalling about the supposed stagnation in wages is based on data which ignores the values of fringes. A good deal of the debates about the negative economic effects of immigration are based on this false data.
One wonders how things would be different if we had never imposed those controls. The thought experiment is helpful in a couple of ways. First, it could help us imagine differences in society that might have been. At the same time, it could also help us think about steps that might be taken with what is today.
So what do we have after almost 60 years of this situation? Health care is a much larger part of the economy than it once was. Obviously that came about, in part, because of advances in medicine, but that is not the only reason. There is some evidence that were people not able to get the things they get as fringes that they might consume 20% less of them than they do now. The tax code is certainly more complicated than it should be (although that is not the exclusive fault of fringe benefits). Finally, some of our basic understandings about how the economy works are simply wrong. For example, all of the catterwalling about the supposed stagnation in wages is based on data which ignores the values of fringes. A good deal of the debates about the negative economic effects of immigration are based on this false data.
One wonders how things would be different if we had never imposed those controls. The thought experiment is helpful in a couple of ways. First, it could help us imagine differences in society that might have been. At the same time, it could also help us think about steps that might be taken with what is today.
Rivercats and the 51s
On Saturday the Cats were rained out. Sunday's day game had a bit of light rain and our usual group was not there, except me. The team won 6-4. It was a fun game.
Last night the Rivercats had a good outing. They started off strong with homers in the first and second JJ Furmaniak and Kurt Suzuki scored the round trips. But they then went into a real slump and for the next 8 innings were hitless. That is not entirely true the Las Vegas pitchers seemed to have a penchant for hitting our batters. Dan Johnson, who is on a rehab assignment with his old team, missed a shot by ducking. Hiram Bocachica was not so lucky and actually had to be pulled from the game. What held us together was the pitching - Colby Lewis went six innnings and had a dozen strikeouts, Ron Flores added one and Conner Robertson added two for a total of 15. As impressive was the strike count - Lewis threw 66 strikes for 99 pitches, Casilla 6 for 9 (although he was not that impressive last night), Flores 20 of 33 and Robertson 9 of 10.
In the bottom of the 10th Lloyd Turner got on base and then stole second. That was all he needed when Tony Abreu blew a hit by Brian Stavitsky, Turner made it home to win the game.
For some reason the Las Vegas team seems to always have a good selection of fans at our games and this one was no exception. In our section there must have been twenty or thirty near us. Sacramento uses a couple of rows in front of us as visiting player family seats and that often makes for an interesting game.
Last night the Rivercats had a good outing. They started off strong with homers in the first and second JJ Furmaniak and Kurt Suzuki scored the round trips. But they then went into a real slump and for the next 8 innings were hitless. That is not entirely true the Las Vegas pitchers seemed to have a penchant for hitting our batters. Dan Johnson, who is on a rehab assignment with his old team, missed a shot by ducking. Hiram Bocachica was not so lucky and actually had to be pulled from the game. What held us together was the pitching - Colby Lewis went six innnings and had a dozen strikeouts, Ron Flores added one and Conner Robertson added two for a total of 15. As impressive was the strike count - Lewis threw 66 strikes for 99 pitches, Casilla 6 for 9 (although he was not that impressive last night), Flores 20 of 33 and Robertson 9 of 10.
In the bottom of the 10th Lloyd Turner got on base and then stole second. That was all he needed when Tony Abreu blew a hit by Brian Stavitsky, Turner made it home to win the game.
For some reason the Las Vegas team seems to always have a good selection of fans at our games and this one was no exception. In our section there must have been twenty or thirty near us. Sacramento uses a couple of rows in front of us as visiting player family seats and that often makes for an interesting game.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Stop me if you've heard this one before
In this morning's Washington Post there is a story about the Democrats new attempt to square the circle of the Alternative Minimum Tax. The AMT, as it is known, was a device to get at the supposed 155 miscreants in the system who supposedly did not pay any tax. Its' operation was supposed to be simple - attack those people who use "preferences" in the system to escape tax and add a separate higher tax schedule for those who did not pay enough.
The "new" proposal would exempt those earning under $250,000 per year - or 98 percent of the taxpayers (I guess then the dems assume that there are about 7750 taxpayers total unless of course there are more than the originally assumed 155 non-payers). Those earning between $250,000 and $500,000 would see a tax reduction according to the Post's anonymous sources. SO, those earning more than $500,000 "would take a much harder hit from the AMT, as well as other adjustments to the tax code, the sources said." Yeah, right. That would amount to a 5-13% boost in tax rate for those taxpayers according to a study by Brookings and the Urban Institute. "A huge number of families will receive tax relief as the result of this. It's something like 87 million to one million," (Note that comes from the Chair of the Democrat Campaign Committee not the Chair of Ways and Means, but then that tells you something about the tax policy here. The significant raise in rates seems to be assumed not to have any distorting effect on the economy. That is absurd.
It would probably not be prudent to guess whether the original brainstorm of these members will come out the way it was described by the Post. Based on past performances since the original idea of the AMT, the chances are close to zero.
The "new" proposal would exempt those earning under $250,000 per year - or 98 percent of the taxpayers (I guess then the dems assume that there are about 7750 taxpayers total unless of course there are more than the originally assumed 155 non-payers). Those earning between $250,000 and $500,000 would see a tax reduction according to the Post's anonymous sources. SO, those earning more than $500,000 "would take a much harder hit from the AMT, as well as other adjustments to the tax code, the sources said." Yeah, right. That would amount to a 5-13% boost in tax rate for those taxpayers according to a study by Brookings and the Urban Institute. "A huge number of families will receive tax relief as the result of this. It's something like 87 million to one million," (Note that comes from the Chair of the Democrat Campaign Committee not the Chair of Ways and Means, but then that tells you something about the tax policy here. The significant raise in rates seems to be assumed not to have any distorting effect on the economy. That is absurd.
It would probably not be prudent to guess whether the original brainstorm of these members will come out the way it was described by the Post. Based on past performances since the original idea of the AMT, the chances are close to zero.
Friday, April 20, 2007
Without much need for additional comment - Advocacy news
The tragedy at Virginia Tech has set the gun control advocates tongues a flutter.
In today's NYT - the following comments were made in a story - Mr. Cho’s ability to purchase two guns despite his history of mental illness has cast new attention on Virginia’s relatively lax gun laws. (EMPHASIS ADDED) And since states are supposed to enforce federal gun laws, the sales raise questions about whether Virgina — and other states — fully comply with the federal restrictions.
Virginia state law on mental health disqualifications to firearms purchases is worded slightly differently from the federal statute. As a result, the form that Virginia courts use to notify state police about a mental health disqualification only addresses the state criteria, which lists two potential categories that would warrant notification to the state police — someone who was “involuntarily committed,” or ruled mentally “incapacitated.”
But in the LA Times earlier in the week - Seung-hui Cho's recent purchase of the two semiautomatic handguns used in the Virginia Tech rampage was done by the book and in accordance with Virginia's firearms laws. (AGAIN EMPHASIS ADDED)
Cho bought one of the guns, a .22-caliber Walther P22, at JND Pawnbrokers in Blacksburg in February, a federal law enforcement official familiar with the investigation said. Cho then bought a 9-millimeter Glock Model 19 at Roanoke Firearms on March 12, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because federal law prohibits the release of information about specific gun traces.
The dealers involved did everything they were legally required to do before selling them to Cho, said Michael Campbell, special agent and spokesman for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco Firearms and Explosives. "As far as I know, everything was legitimate. The background checks were done. They followed all the procedures." (Some more emphasis added.)
Authorities also found paperwork for the gun purchase from Roanoke Firearms in Cho's possession. At least four agents rushed over to the shop, where Markell produced the required federal form 4473 linking the purchase to Cho.
My comment - a fundamental principle of the American system is a federalist one. The NYT seems to forget that, but what else is new?
In today's NYT - the following comments were made in a story - Mr. Cho’s ability to purchase two guns despite his history of mental illness has cast new attention on Virginia’s relatively lax gun laws. (EMPHASIS ADDED) And since states are supposed to enforce federal gun laws, the sales raise questions about whether Virgina — and other states — fully comply with the federal restrictions.
Virginia state law on mental health disqualifications to firearms purchases is worded slightly differently from the federal statute. As a result, the form that Virginia courts use to notify state police about a mental health disqualification only addresses the state criteria, which lists two potential categories that would warrant notification to the state police — someone who was “involuntarily committed,” or ruled mentally “incapacitated.”
But in the LA Times earlier in the week - Seung-hui Cho's recent purchase of the two semiautomatic handguns used in the Virginia Tech rampage was done by the book and in accordance with Virginia's firearms laws. (AGAIN EMPHASIS ADDED)
Cho bought one of the guns, a .22-caliber Walther P22, at JND Pawnbrokers in Blacksburg in February, a federal law enforcement official familiar with the investigation said. Cho then bought a 9-millimeter Glock Model 19 at Roanoke Firearms on March 12, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because federal law prohibits the release of information about specific gun traces.
The dealers involved did everything they were legally required to do before selling them to Cho, said Michael Campbell, special agent and spokesman for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco Firearms and Explosives. "As far as I know, everything was legitimate. The background checks were done. They followed all the procedures." (Some more emphasis added.)
Authorities also found paperwork for the gun purchase from Roanoke Firearms in Cho's possession. At least four agents rushed over to the shop, where Markell produced the required federal form 4473 linking the purchase to Cho.
My comment - a fundamental principle of the American system is a federalist one. The NYT seems to forget that, but what else is new?
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